Is it me or has 993 sales volume hit an air pocket?

[2ndTARGA]

Apologies for this long post but this has been on my mind quite a bit lately. I’ve been shopping seriously for a nice driver since March and have a pretty good handle on the listings on eBay, cars.com, national craigslist search sites, etc. I watch the new listings and “ending soon” lists daily. I expected inventory would start to move in the spring but keep seeing the same cars over and over on a re-listing carousel. There is an obvious gap between sellers’ expectations and bidder appetite. That may not be surprising in a market that is appreciating rapidly, but roughly 65% of the listings are from small dealers (including the usual suspects well-known in these forums) and I can’t imagine all of them can afford to sit on inventory month after month like speculators. I assume they need monthly volume. (And I don’t think they all ship hundreds of 911’s to Germany, Russia, Middle East or wherever they claim.)

Another opinion I’ve developed is that individual sellers – on eBay, at least – mostly seem to be testing the market with very high reserves. Perhaps not sure they want to sell but looking to see if they really might get $60K (or $80K, or $90K?) for a car they paid $30K for a few years back. All based on the fact that everyone knows “prices are skyrocketing.”

Before I get pelted here as a dreamer living in the past, price-wise, let me say I do believe prices will continue to increase over time. I’m in fact counting on it. To be clear, I’m waiting for the right car, not a drop in prices. And I'm sure there have been many very high-priced sales of the more exceptional cars. But whether these were the proverbial collector-to-collector, private treaty, shadow market, hedge fund, or exclusive auction, etc. - by definition they are the very small top of the value pyramid. And while they may be responsible for raising expectations, asking prices and buzz, I, for one, haven’t found much evidence that sales volume is following – at least not in the past few months.

I lived through several housing booms in CA and when assets start appreciating 20% - 30%/ year, they usually fly off the shelves, not sit for months. Sometimes asking prices get too far ahead of the demand curve and sales volume drops way off until buyer appetite catches up. I think that may be what I’m observing here but would be interested to know if I’m missing something obvious.

Thanks

[NYNick]

As with any sellers market, people get greedy. As a prospective buyer, you already know that these cars are "flying off the shelves." Much akin to the RE boom of 8 years ago, word gets out, the buyers flock in and the prices zoom up to unreasonable levels. It's simply the sellers, or the flippers, pushing the market envelope.

What is different from the RE market is that they're not making these cars anymore, and it's a limited supply, albeit a somewhat large 'limited supply'. People are just trying to get as much as the market will pay, and that's ok. If they're willing to let the cars sit and not sell, no harm, no foul. It's not like anybody, anywhere who owns one of these aircooled classics is losing money while it sits in their driveway/garage/showroom, now is it?

They say everything is for sale, at the right price. Nobody ever said it has to be a reasonable price!

Nick

[2ndTARGA]

Thanks, for the input - all good points, however:

As a prospective buyer, you already know that these cars are "flying off the shelves."

But actually that's not what I'm seeing. Quite the opposite. Maybe buyers are taking a breather after previous run-ups but eventually, the market is the market and the gap between listers and bidders will have to narrow. Unless everyone who wants a 993 that badly already has theirs............... Nah!

[Six Gun]

Originally Posted by NYNick

They say everything is for sale, at the right price. Nobody ever said it has to be a reasonable price!

Nick

In the world of stocks its called ("The greater fool theory) There is always someone who will pay more than you just did, for the same thing.

[Matt Monson]

I've been referring to this as the froth. There is no price bubble. However as the as the actual real price of these cars goes up there are going to be both dealers and individuals who push the limit. Their cars will sit there "bubbling" on top and not selling. I think we are seeing it on the 993 market and a bit in the 930 market too.

Same idea, different model... Just this morning I noticed an ad for a white 964 C4. I think the ask is aggressive (and emotionally based) for a car that was hit and has gone through 2 color changes and still isn't original linen in color. And he says price will go up as he makes repairs revealed by a PPI. I expect that one to sit like the 993s you are watching.

[RacerX1166]

Originally Posted by 2ndTARGA

But actually that's not what I'm seeing. Quite the opposite.

Let's seize upon the seeing and not seeing part. Because these cars are in such high demand, I would submit that the cars that are being offered at market price become merely a blip before they're snatched up and disappear. In a number of cases, those cars don't make it to being listed. A few well placed words amongst the right folks and the transaction is done without ever seeing the light of the market. Thus, you wouldn't see them. Having listed my 993 for sale late last year (then regaining my sanity and deciding to keep it), I could have sold that car for its market based asking price half a dozen times in 48 hours, thus it would have been another short lived blip.

What remains are the cars listed at delusional prices that shuffle from dealer to flipper to dealer.

[Rick Lee]

I listed my 993 here this past Friday. Before I did so, I got two PM's from folks who had registered here for the ability to PM me, asking about my car. They didn't buy, but, if they had, I'd have never listed it and no one would have heard about it.

I have a local buddy who helped another buddy sell his 993 cab a few weeks ago for $37k. A dealer snatched it up and listed it for $52k a few days later, but it needed a lot of work, which I'm sure the dealer knew about and didn't disclose.

[billh1963]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

I have a local buddy who helped another buddy sell his 993 cab a few weeks ago for $37k. A dealer snatched it up and listed it for $52k a few days later, but it needed a lot of work, which I'm sure the dealer knew about and didn't disclose.

That is, unfortunately, common in this runaway market. Flippers put lipstick on a pig (porker in this case ...) and pass it off to someone desperate to get a car.

[NYNick]

Originally Posted by Six Gun

In the world of stocks its called ("The greater fool theory) There is always someone who will pay more than you just did, for the same thing.

I'm not ashamed to say that I'm guilty on both counts!

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

I listed my 993 here this past Friday. Before I did so, I got two PM's from folks who had registered here for the ability to PM me, asking about my car. They didn't buy, but, if they had, I'd have never listed it and no one would have heard about it.

Then how did they know that you were going to list it so that they could join?

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by Matt Monson

Then how did they know that you were going to list it so that they could join?

Another buddy here I had been talking to via PM sells cars on the side and mentioned it to one. Another guy had a friend who had ridden in my car 10 yrs. ago and recently ran into another friend I had been discussing it with.

Small world out there, but I wouldn't want to paint it.

[2ndTARGA]

I understand the sales we can see are not all of the sales that take place. And also that well-known posters here with well-known cars can indeed sell them in a blip. But I'm not sure I buy all of this anecdotal "invisible market" talk I keep hearing.

If there's a white-hot shadow market - and I'm not saying there isn't - then wouldn't some of the eager buyers who miss out on, or never see, the blip sales create some velocity in the published for sale markets? Velocity that seems to me to be missing - or at least seriously waning in the past few months.

I like the stock market analogies. Higher price on lower volume is often not a good sign. That's why I'm curious about the volume trend, not so much about price.

[Matt Monson]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

Another buddy here I had been talking to via PM sells cars on the side and mentioned it to one. Another guy had a friend who had ridden in my car 10 yrs. ago and recently ran into another friend I had been discussing it with.

Small world out there, but I wouldn't want to paint it.

Makes total sense. I get emails once every other month or so from people I haven't talked to in "forever" asking me if I know about cars for sale. Only 1 car in my signature was ever listed for sale publicly.

[touringteg]

I bought my 993 C4S without it ever being publicly listed. I posted a WTB ad locally in Feb 2014 (this has worked well for me the last few years) and the seller contacted me. He knew I was knowledgeable and had done my research. I knew the market and was ready to jump. (I already had wife approval and finances ready).

I was a great buyer for him! He didn't have to deal with endless questions, tire kickers and those who just want to take a joyride in a 911.

I will say the supply of 993 (and 964) manual coupes for sale in Canada is very low. I plan to keep this car as long as possible. It is a fantastic car and I could not afford to buy it again at todays prices.

[Rich Gas]

993's are the ugly stepchild of the aircooled. Fast, but ugly.

[kc911s]

I got my 77 930 off a craigslist WTB ad. Sometimes you don't know what kind of fish you will catch.

[RacerX1166]

Originally Posted by Rich Gas

993's are the ugly stepchild of the aircooled. Fast, but ugly.

And the only air cooled Carrera to have halfway decent a/c, important in this part of VA and the reason I swapped my 89 for my 97.

[vracer]

Originally Posted by RacerX1166

And the only air cooled Carrera to have halfway decent a/c, important in this part of VA and the reason I swapped my 89 for my 97.

I disagree. My '89 a/c is "half way decent". It actually works pretty well up to 90/92 degrees. And, if the car was parked in the shade, it will actually cool it down to low 70s at those temps.

[2ndTARGA]

Finally, a sale on eBay - thanks to no reserve.

$46K for a '98 C2S Widebody. Yes, it's a high mileage tip and all that, and the write up is pretty weird, but I wonder if the seller was hoping for more bidders.

Porsche 911 993 930 Porsche C2S 911 997 Carrera | eBay

[Skwerl]

The tip in particular will bring that one down quite a bit, but still, a sale's a sale. Everyone in the market for a car like that probably saw it.

Amazingly, though, someone's finally bold enough to list a 993TT without a reserve:

Porsche 911 2dr Carrera Turbo Coupe | eBay

It won't be totally representative since it's a 97 with sunroof delete and in white, but the miles put it out of garage princess collector territory so it will be interesting to watch.