2016 auction sales report

[nota]

Porsches Sold at Auction in 2016 - Photos, Report, Analysis

looks to be past the peak
2014 and 2015 cars and prices in the link

[93097004xx]

Originally Posted by nota

Porsches Sold at Auction in 2016 - Photos, Report, Analysis



looks to be past the peak

2014 and 2015 cars and prices in the link

All this negative news, yes the market is down after a 300% rise.

On a bright point I feel that market for nice 930s is still very strong.

On another bright point I also feel that the market for driver and rough 930s has bottomed and the only way to go is up (at a slower sustainable rate this time).

NA 911s (911S SC Carrera) I feel are stabilized too.

I guess there are those who feel these cars should have just kept going at 300% and never peaked plateau or decrease. So they write these articles.

My own theory is that Gen X is not a big enough player in the market YET. Thus the demand seems anemic at this time. Give it 10 years. Also the European market will recover for these cars.

[tom6284]

my bet is the Porsche market outperforms the S& P. i rather have money is something in the garage than paper!!!!

[techweenie]

These are not Chevrolets. You have to look at each individual car.

The 87 Turbo didn't bring a lot because 87 Turbos have never brought a lot. And this one was red. The 993 C4S price was weak at $91K. Probably a 6-figure car 18 months before the auction. But what happened was that $100K sales brought more cars to the market than the market had appetite for.

A 71 T with a 3.0 coupe selling for $93K is not indicative of a down market. But I cannot prove it, because I don't know of another Light Yellow 71T coupe with 3.0 that's sold publicly in the past few years.

Similarly, find another red/red 993 Turbo with 5K miles... $335K seems good money to me. The red/black one seemed soft at $154K

The Ice Green 77 Turbo at $264K was comparable to previous sales, I think.

The $525K RS was about right for a 'driver' Series 3 RS - maybe off 10% from a couple years ago, but lots of cosmetic issues including right side mirror...

The 69S coupe brought strong money.

Just not seeing an overall softening of the market. Yes, 993s and 356s have dropped all year. 3.3 Turbos '80-88 are not moving consistently well, but never really have. I do think the market is getting more selective, punishing the weaker cars.

[speednme1]

Originally Posted by techweenie

These are not Chevrolets. You have to look at each individual car.

The 87 Turbo didn't bring a lot because 87 Turbos have never brought a lot. And this one was red. The 993 C4S price was weak at $91K. Probably a 6-figure car 18 months before the auction. But what happened was that $100K sales brought more cars to the market than the market had appetite for.

A 71 T with a 3.0 coupe selling for $93K is not indicative of a down market. But I cannot prove it, because I don't know of another Light Yellow 71T coupe with 3.0 that's sold publicly in the past few years.

Similarly, find another red/red 993 Turbo with 5K miles... $335K seems good money to me. The red/black one seemed soft at $154K

The Ice Green 77 Turbo at $264K was comparable to previous sales, I think.

The $525K RS was about right for a 'driver' Series 3 RS - maybe off 10% from a couple years ago, but lots of cosmetic issues including right side mirror...

The 69S coupe brought strong money.

Just not seeing an overall softening of the market. Yes, 993s and 356s have dropped all year. 3.3 Turbos '80-88 are not moving consistently well, but never really have. I do think the market is getting more selective, punishing the weaker cars.

That's a good assessment but many of the weaker cars, are cars that one can actually take out and enjoy. One may have to put a few dollars into it but in the end you can make memories with it. The cars commanding top dollars turn out to be huge paperweights with no road use whatsoever. In the end one has to ask themselves what are they after. Pristine cars trumps all but they can also drain your pocket due to road use. Caveat Emptor

[techweenie]

I agree, but auctions - especially Amelia and Monterey - are not the place to buy a 'take out and enjoy' car any more. Closest thing was that 2.2T coupe with "$100K worth of dust on it."

Today's auction buyer wants all the boxes checked. The typical buyer for a drive and enjoy 911 doesn't book $1K worth of lodging & travel and pay a fee to bid.

[Macroni]

While I reviewed all the auctions it would be nice to see them organized by model for review. I was quite surprised at the selling price of many of what are considered highly desirable models. I do think the one 69S was an outlier at first glance.

I have been in the market for a driver quality there are quite a few of these cars I would love to have purchased. Time to study....... 2017 auctions might provide an opportunity.....

[Rick Brooklyn]

Originally Posted by Macroni

2017 auctions might provide an opportunity.....

I don't know. Scottsdale estimates for Sothebys and Bonhams look very very strong to me.

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by Rick Brooklyn

I don't know. Scottsdale estimates for Sothebys and Bonhams look very very strong to me.

Agree, but the 2016 auctions also had very aggressive estimates.....

[speednme1]

Originally Posted by techweenie

I agree, but auctions - especially Amelia and Monterey - are not the place to buy a 'take out and enjoy' car any more. Closest thing was that 2.2T coupe with "$100K worth of dust on it."

Today's auction buyer wants all the boxes checked. The typical buyer for a drive and enjoy 911 doesn't book $1K worth of lodging & travel and pay a fee to bid.

That may as well be correct but I'm starting to see some of these "auction" cars end up on a dealers list. Problem is they want $40-50k above their winning bid and the cars are not selling...not anytime soon. Maybe they will sell in a few years, maybe they won't. With the internet, some research can go a long way. Honestly I don't understand how some of these dealers make money....it can't be from inventory alone. Cars are sitting for much longer than a year.

It's funny a dealer told me a couple of weeks ago that it's ok for me to lose money on a potential buy but it's not ok for them to lose money on a sell. The arrogance will bite many of these so called specialty classic resellers in the arse as time moves forward. I believe in a "fair" deal, I don't want to put someone's kid through college on a single buy.

[Skwerl]

It would be nice to hear "real" estimates from someone attending the upcoming auctions, before the cars go up for bidding, so if they don't meet expectations it doesn't sound so much like post hoc handwaving. ("Well of course results came up short, all the cars were clapped out hoopties.") Likewise, impressions that the cars look great and should justify meeting or exceeding estimates if that happens. Just something to approach the scientific principle of having a testable/falsifiable hypothesis.

[techweenie]

Fair comment.

I did check out Auctions America 911s last July before the auction and there were a fair number of astonishingly bad "restorations." And a handful of clapped out hoopties. But I didn't get to the biggies: Scottsdale, Amelia or Monterey this last year. For those, I get a lot of info from people in attendance who did see the cars before they hit the stage and only reported after the fact.

I think the auction houses are giving high predictions in order to get the cars. I think comparing sales prices to estimates is unproductive.

I promise this: if everyone who reads this thread sends me $10, I'll go and report on the 3 key auctions for 2017.

[NYNick]

Originally Posted by techweenie

Fair comment.

I did check out Auctions America 911s last July before the auction and there were a fair number of astonishingly bad "restorations." And a handful of clapped out hoopties. But I didn't get to the biggies: Scottsdale, Amelia or Monterey this last year. For those, I get a lot of info from people in attendance who did see the cars before they hit the stage and only reported after the fact.

I think the auction houses are giving high predictions in order to get the cars. I think comparing sales prices to estimates is unproductive.

I promise this: if everyone who reads this thread sends me $10, I'll go and report on the 3 key auctions for 2017.

Ahhh...trying the 'send me $200 for a tip' theory, Bill?

[voitureltd]

Originally Posted by techweenie

Fair comment.

I did check out Auctions America 911s last July before the auction and there were a fair number of astonishingly bad "restorations." And a handful of clapped out hoopties. But I didn't get to the biggies: Scottsdale, Amelia or Monterey this last year. For those, I get a lot of info from people in attendance who did see the cars before they hit the stage and only reported after the fact.


I promise this: if everyone who reads this thread sends me $10, I'll go and report on the 3 key auctions for 2017.[/I][/B][/COLOR]

Ahh, As Keith Martin @ SCML. I used to see him at all the biggies in the day, although he checked out and reported on all the latest fashions. So just really getting to examine the Porsches would be a dream job.

[Macroni]

Took my time and reviewed the information provided, which while significant to certain models, did not allow for enough data points to make highly predictable values. Again, this was one man's @ SCML vision. It did provide some very surprising insights. Example..... If you are looking for a long hood an auction might be the way to go.....

PS... I know it drives TechW nuts when I assume based upon crunching numbers.....

[Macroni]

Year Model Condition Hammer
1967 911S Coupe 2- 115000
1967 911S Targa 2- 140000 (Soft Window) No Sale
1967 911S Coupe 3+ 100000
1968 911S Targa 2- 125000 (Soft Window)
1968 911S Targa 2- 134545 (Soft Window)
1969 911S Targa 3+ 150000
1969 911S Coupe 2 190000
1973 911S Coupe 2- 120000

Again, I realize these are numbers without my own eyeballs but a 2- 1967S for $115,000 or a 2- 1973S for $120,000 is a very compelling. I would pony up for either.

I believe the 68S Softie ($125,000 & $134545 yes, it sold twice @ auction) was well purchased. A similar car was just marketed for $175,000. I know it sold but am not certain of final sale price.

The 69S Coupe and 69S Targa were well sold and the 67S Softie that did not sell was a nice restoration that was IMO undervalued.

[Macroni]

This would be sweet to own @ $120,000......

[Macroni]

Year Model Condition Hammer Mileage
1979 930 Coupe 3+ $69,000.00 (No Sale)
1978 930 Coupe 3+ $75,000.00 66260
1979 930 Coupe 3+ $80,000.00 103338
1979 930 Coupe 2- $85,000.00 NA (No Sale)
1988 930 Coupe 2 $100,000.00 26388
1978 930 Coupe 3 $107,500.00 NA
1979 930 Coupe 2- $120,000.00 65510
1978 930 Coupe 2 $140,000.00 5080 (No Sale)
1989 930 Coupe 2- $150,000.00 36888
1977 930 Coupe 2- $170,000.00 15237
1977 930 Coupe 2 $240,000.00 NA
1977 930 Coupe 2- $250,000.0016665
1976 930 Coupe 2 $280,500.00 NA
1979 930 Coupe 2- $360,000.00 64

Interesting......

[techweenie]

930 price tiers - top to bottom

75
76
77
78/79
89
...all the rest.

I'm on the hunt for an 89 930 for a client at the moment and there's a lot of delusion out there in terms of valuation.

[Macroni]

Year Model Condition Hammer Mileage
2005 Carrera GT 2 $825,000.00 909
2005 Carrera GT 2 $680,000.00
2005 Carrera GT 2 $650,000.00 2720
2005 Carrera GT 2 $650,000.00
2004 Carrera GT 2 $590,000.00 3537
2005 Carrera GT 2 $590,000.00 2724
2005 Carrera GT 2 $580,000.00 2200
2004 Carrera GT 2 $575,000.00 4252
2005 Carrera GT 2 $575,000.00 2486
2005 Carrera GT 2 $545,000.00

Carrera GT anything over $575,000 seems like it is too much for a sub 5000 mile example.... Still up quite a bit from the $300,000 values pre the Paul Walker accident.