Thoughts on the Air-cooled Market for 2018
 

I've only been a window shopper for a few years, but there's always a chance I might jump in if the right "deal" presents itself. Obviously, like many, I kicked myself a couple of years ago for not getting in before prices started skyrocketing, and have mused at how over-priced some of these cars were going for considering how commonplace in general a Porsche 911 is. Sure, it might make sense for a 1972 S or a 993 Turbo to command a premium, but some of the prices I've seen for fairly normal cars has been, well, silly.

I was speaking with a fairly well-known Porsche restorer/engine-builder a few days ago, and his prediction was that "regular" (SCs, Carreras, and Targas) impact-bumper cars would be coming down slightly in value in 2018 following the normal dip that Winter weather brings. His reasoning is that 1) there are a lot of 911s out there, 2) pretty much everyone who wants one badly and has the money has purchased one at this point, 3) a lot of people who bought an impact bumper car expecting a supercar are going to be frankly bored by the comparatively pedestrian straight-line performance, and 4) people recognize that the market has peaked somewhat, want to sell at a profit, and are going to saturate the market.

Sure enough, it looks as though prices have plateaued somewhat, and I've seen a few surprising "deals" pop up here and there. Sure, there's the rough stuff on Beverly Hills Car Club and the like, but I've been surprised by *some* of the selling prices on Bring a Trailer and eBay lately. Not all. But some.

There are a lot of SCs and 3.2s for sale for $30-40K out there, but I wonder how many are selling for that much. I'm sure early cars and 993s will continue to appreciate, as will Turbos and other special models (Speedsters, RS Americas, etc.). But do you think the market for the "commonplace" mid-year cars, SCs, and 3.2s will start to cool a little?

Anyhow, I'm just musing out loud. Obviously none of us knows what the market will bring -- if I did, I would've bought Amazon stock in the late 1990s and held it -- but just curious what you all think the future holds.

I recently sold my 930. it sold for just at six figures but I think I left money on the table. maybe I should have waited for 2018 and a longer dollar?

just nothing like an air cooled 911!!!

Yeah, I think the 930s are a special case. I don't know if the prices will continue to climb, but I think the values will hold steady.

They did not make that many SC's yearly. With that said I would put my money on rarer versions like 74-75 US Carreras, 76-77 Euro carrera 3.0's, rare color anything SC's especially, just got that '75 25th Anniversary but for the most part if you are looking for an investment or a car that doesn't lose value I wouldn't go with something that they made a large quantity of. Simple supply and demand. Want to defy supply and demand and/or underestimate the sheer potential massiveness of demand look at the early VW market. Don't forget they made hundreds of thousands of a lot of those models. Nothing "rare" about it and their values are going bonkers

I wouldn't wait around if you're in the market for a SC, Carrera, or Targa (G series). Nice sorted cars will hold their value IMO.

Interesting points, nathan. If I decide to move in that direction, I would probably just be looking for a driver for now -- maybe even something mechanically sound but in need of paint and with a ratty interior -- something that I maybe wouldn't feel bad about stripping out the interior.

I've seen cars that fit exactly what I want, but each time they're in Hawaii or Oregon, or I'm not in the market at that point, or whatever. I'm willing to be patient for the right car to come along, if it looks like the market is cooling a little.

I tend to agree. very good to great examples should continue to bring the money. the market is loaded w/ sub par examples that get sold for a lower dollar but should not be considered the proxy.

add to that that it is always cheaper to buy the best as opposed to buying a car with needs...

I've been looking for a nice 3.2 for about three months now.
Prefer a coupe but consider a targa. Not had much luck.

As you say, SCs and Carreras have been selling anywhere from $32k to $42k for a half decent car. And if it is half decent it seems to sell quickly.
I wanted one the day after I sold my 66 912... now is the bucket list time.

I'm not sure I'm going to be able to find 'the car' as I'm a bit picky.
I've seen two cars now that have been in frame altering accidents and watched cars come and go on eBay that have re-appeared with added stickers and seemingly less miles (being sold by a dealer).

I know the market dips in mid to late Autumn, so I'm going to keep looking until then. After that, I think I might consider something else that has been a dream car - Lister-Bell Stratos replica.

For the same amount of money, I will be able to afford something like that with a good element of character to it. Shame though, as I've been brought up on VW bugs, buggys and aircooled kit cars. It would have been great to own one.

The good impact car values seem to be crashing into the cheap long hood market now. I wonder if the longhood price easing will have a roll down effect?

I purchased an 1986 911 coupe last summer for $31k--definitely a driver's car and not a garage queen.

I always like to shop around and see what P-cars are available locally if I didn't already own one. Despite being located in a P-car hotbed (southern california), I rarely see properly sorted 911 for under $38k.

I would be very surprised if prices were to drop in any meaningful way in 2018.

I think the key difference you are starting to see and will see more of moving forward is actual availability of decent cars. Over the last few years anything that popped up on the open market at a good or reasonable price was quickly snatched up by someone in the business and then put back out in the market at a high premium. This left regular guys frustrated because there were dealers who were buying everything with no PPI, no negotiation, just paying the price. Regular dudes were left with no option but buy at top price from one of these dealers. Now I'm seeing dealers not snatching up cars with such crazy abandon, so normal guys can see a car for sale, do a PPI and actually buy a car from another Porsche guy. So prices aren't plummeting but it's harder to sell now, so cars are on the market for more than 2 seconds. This is good news for everyone but the dealers. It's good news for normal buyers and good news for sellers who would rather sell their car to another Porsche guy rather than deal with a fast talking flipper.

---Adam

Hi
 

This discussion or some form thereof has been in Forums for years.

Cars from 1974-89 are common yes, but common to what... Mustangs?
Actually these cars are hand made not on a assembly line. Most people could not effort a Porsche even today.

So common is realitive, personality it's the best value in collectable cars even today.
My sense is the air cooled market generally peaked in 2015. Now we are flat, but with new cars so expensive, my 2016 4Ruuner was $42,000, new Porsche start at $90,000 that many new Porsche owners are wanting air cooled as a extra car in their garage.

It's not over, name a somewhat similar car that is as good. This era was tuff on cars Uncle Sam demanded emissions and with low tech electronics we got crap compared to today's high HP. We got 5 mph numbers, etc. So many turds were made, remember the Buick Reatta? I had one it was very low volume but kinda worthless.

So I can go on forever here, but getting a air cooled car is your BEST BET, bar none, and stop thinking cars are always a profit. But I believe these can be a lot of fun and fairly bulletproof. But be careful because Porsche parts are getting harder to find and new are expensive. My comments only apply to 911 models.

Agree with 1) and 2), I don't think 3) is "a lot" of people", and I don't think 4) has a big impact. All said, I think your friend is mostly right.

How many SCs and Carreras are selling for 30k? I'd say the majority of SCs and all but the most tired 3.2s.

Still funny to me that people lump a Targa in with distinct 911 production models as a Carrera and SC.

After living in a California for more than a decade (SoCal) and in other parts of the country that has many Porsches, I still do not see a lot of them. I don't consider any model that regular. Wonder what happened to all those tens of thousands of G body cars. Are they hanging out in garages with flat tires?

I agree though, some people think they are Super Cars when they can't out run a stock 2017 Honda Accord. To think that a 2017 Honda Civic has a base horsepower of my '75s - that's hilarious.

But if you seriously look at production numbers (and some day, these will really count), the hand-made mid year cars were made in very small numbers compared to the boom years of 1986 and the mid-eighties. In one year alone in the mid eighties they made more G cars than they did from '74 to '77 combined.

Anyone who has been in the market or on the forum for a few years knows the 'irrational exuberance' has ended. This doesn't mean there aren't crazy asking prices still out there or great deals still to be found. It just means that the lunacy has slowed down.

There are still nice cars to be had at decent numbers. "Nice" and "decent" are relative to the buyer, but IMHO the driver the PO is looking for is out there.

GL

Nick

Thoughts on the Air-cooled Market for 2018
 

I don't think the air cooled 911s are as plentiful as folks want to make them to be..

First the ENTIRE AIR COOL MARKET (number of cars) is a drop in the bucket compared with the american muscle car market, 40s,50,60s american market, I'd even go so far as to say the pre war market is much larger than the entire air cooled marker.

When was the last time you saw a C2 corvette ? They made far less long nose 911s of the same era and I don't have ask the last time you saw a long nose 911 on the road.

I think we loose sight of the fact that air cooled porsches are a global market a world market so demand is much much greater than other markets that may only have regional appeal.

These cars.. Air cooled porsches are SO DAMNED COOL they really can't be matched by anything before or after. The charisma is off the charts on the air cooled cars. Charisma,charm,fascination that's a air cooled porsche and why demand will always stay quite high.

I never understand the relevance of this comparison that you love to make? How does your I-phone/android compare to the cell phone that you had 42 years ago. Or better yet how does the performance of your '75s compare to anything from 1933? Has no merit sorry to say as they were outstanding performing cars for their time just as anything from 1933 was compared to a horse drawn carriage

Up - down - all around
Everything is based on specifics of the individual car
Dont buy for investment unless you are a speculator and can hold a car for a long time
Buy to enjoy
Love what you buy
Drive it

More nonsense available 24/7/356 (yes, I take 9 days off - gov't employee)

Don't lose sight that while the odds are 50/50 that 2018 could be a down year, the years after will be higher and the years after that will be up through the all time highs. This isn't a maybe, it's 100% fact, guarantee. Pullbacks are good and healthy for the market as we experienced some irrational prices. That said, the longer one sits on the sidelines waiting for some big pullback, you likely will be watching as prices start moving upwards. There is no better time than right now to buy. The market pulled back. They didn't plummet. If they were going to plummet in price, they would have already done so.

This is the pullback. Right now. Today. What more could anyone be waiting for!

so true. a 250 gto will not outrun a c7 z06 yet the gto is worth $50mm.

how can that be when run in sal's model? :)

Look at prices on BAT for low mileage all original 3.2's an SC's. They're all still very strong. I don't know where this "cooling" notion comes from