Super Low Miles Car Valuation

[rokemester]

So how much are low miles (<10K) worth in terms of a price premium % over average market price? Of course this % premium varies for the super collectible, collectible and ordinary cars. Tapping into the brain trust of this forum, what do you think the price premium for a low miles 86 Carerra is vs. a 96 VW Cabrio?

[Jgordon]

Depends on the intended usage. If you're planning on displaying it, I'd say there's a hefty premium. If you want to drive it, then still a premium, but keep in mind that everything will suffer from lack of use and need attention. Attention costs money, whereas a normally driven and cared-for car will require less.

[tirwin]

Originally Posted by Jgordon

Depends on the intended usage. If you're planning on displaying it, I'd say there's a hefty premium. If you want to drive it, then still a premium, but keep in mind that everything will suffer from lack of use and need attention. Attention costs money, whereas a normally driven and cared-for car will require less.

Completely agree.

I would just add that it also depends on condition. I was just looking up Hagerty values for my '83 SC yesterday.

Good condition (#3) = $36k
Excellent (#2) = $50k
Concours (#1) = $66k

If this is a car that has been well-kept and unmolested, you could be talking about a concours quality car and I would expect it to be at or near the top of the valuation range. If it's been sitting in a barn for 30 years being used as a chicken coop, then the fact that it is low mileage doesn't mean nearly as much because it's going to take a lot of money to get it back into good condition whether that's for driving it or showing it. It may be more worthwhile to somebody because it has low miles on the engine. If there was something special about it's provenance or limited production numbers, etc then that would obviously factor in as well.

You can see from the example numbers above that there is ~$15k swing between each rating, so I would say everything else being equal, the low mileage would put it on the high end of the rating range. Just my thinking.

[rokemester]

Great input on the Porsche valuation and we can all agree of the increased collectibility of all the P cars particularly the 911s. The trick is valuing a car like the Cabrio with 4,000 Miles which isn’t really collectible but could attract the attention of the right buyer. Not my car but I think an online auction approach with a reserve they are comfortable with makes the most sense. Let the market decide the true value.

[thamlin000]

When it comes to an average vintage Porsche, I'd say a perfect condition <10k mi car is worth 1.5x-2x the value of a similar #1 condition 25k-50k mi example. You could probably transfer that to other cars too.

Here is my example and opinion: 95% of all running/registered 77 911S coupes are worth $20k-$40k.

Let's say a 30k mi #1 condition/perfect 77 911S coupe is worth $50k. The same car with 5k mi is probably worth $75k-100k.

This 5k mi car is just art and not mechanically viable so it is a collector's car only.

[rokemester]

This is very helpful because pricing can be so subjective. Although less subjective than a little over 20 years ago when access to online market data and forums like this were practically non-existent. eBay Motors went online in 1996.

[maninblack]

The idea that ultra-low mileage cars are always going to have excessive mechanical issues is just silly. Yes, these cars prefer to be driven. But I've purchased numerous ultra-low mileage cars over the years, some that had been sitting for many, many years, and I've never had a problem after addressing some basic maintenance issues. Worries about this issue are way overblown IMHO.

As for value, I think anything pre-89 with less than 10k DOCUMENTED miles is probably worth double, or more, over a similar, 100k mile car.

As an example, I recently sold a 12k-mile 85 targa, a very boring car in red over black that I only sold because it was such a common color, and it went for $85k in less than a day.

[1979-930]

^^^ I disagree in regards to the EVAP and fuel hoses. My car is 80k miles and I think the 39 years played an above equal part in hoses literally crumbling in my hands.
The fuel hoses were probably OK and just a piece of mind replacement. But all vacuum and EVAP system hoses crumbled.
I may be wrong but I have a hard time believing 50k less mileage would have that much of a difference on the hoses ability to withstand time.
You would have more experience with low mileage cars than I ever will. I don't want to afford cars like that.

[maninblack]

Originally Posted by 1979-930

^^^ I disagree in regards to the EVAP and fuel hoses. My car is 80k miles and I think the 39 years played an above equal part in hoses literally crumbling in my hands.
The fuel hoses were probably OK and just a piece of mind replacement. But all vacuum and EVAP system hoses crumbled.
I may be wrong but I have a hard time believing 50k less mileage would have that much of a difference on the hoses ability to withstand time.
You would have more experience with low mileage cars than I ever will. I don't want to afford cars like that.

Actually, it seems as if you agree. My point is that a buyer shouldn't expect anything much worse with a low-mile car as opposed to a car that's been driven more regularly. Time is time and nothing can prevent the aging of materials. But I've yet to find a low-mileage car that has significant issues simply because it's a low-mileage car. Maybe some small things but nothing major.

[rokemester]

Originally Posted by maninblack

The idea that ultra-low mileage cars are always going to have excessive mechanical issues is just silly. Yes, these cars prefer to be driven. But I've purchased numerous ultra-low mileage cars over the years, some that had been sitting for many, many years, and I've never had a problem after addressing some basic maintenance issues. Worries about this issue are way overblown IMHO.

As for value, I think anything pre-89 with less than 10k DOCUMENTED miles is probably worth double, or more, over a similar, 100k mile car.

As an example, I recently sold a 12k-mile 85 targa, a very boring car in red over black that I only sold because it was such a common color, and it went for $85k in less than a day.

What about a less collectible car? I’m thinking a 30-40% premium over a car with “normal” mileage (10K/year) over its lifetime.

[tirwin]

Originally Posted by maninblack

Actually, it seems as if you agree. My point is that a buyer shouldn't expect anything much worse with a low-mile car as opposed to a car that's been driven more regularly. Time is time and nothing can prevent the aging of materials. But I've yet to find a low-mileage car that has significant issues simply because it's a low-mileage car. Maybe some small things but nothing major.

You're right time is time, but a car that has been driven over the years has probably also had at least some regular service over it's history. So the list of things that need to be done to a car that has been sitting is probably a lot all at once versus being spread out over time. Once you have to do something like pull the motor, the incremental cost of labor goes down significantly. Of course, that's when the WYIT (while you're in there) bug bites hard and you start spending cubic dollars.

[Rodsrsr]

Ultra low miles is not a good thing. When things sit they rot. Tires in the same position will get flat spots, cams opening a valve stuck in that position for years cant be good. I would actually shy away from a car with excessively low miles.

[maninblack]

Originally Posted by Rodsrsr

Ultra low miles is not a good thing. When things sit they rot. Tires in the same position will get flat spots, cams opening a valve stuck in that position for years cant be good. I would actually shy away from a car with excessively low miles.

Nice choice. That means I can buy them.

Old wives tales...

[rokemester]

Would you trust a 4K 22 year old timing belt? What did Clint used to say “do you feel lucky?”

[Rodsrsr]

Originally Posted by maninblack

Nice choice. That means I can buy them.

Old wives tales...

The wives tale is believing that a car sitting for 20 years will be in better condition than one which has had moderate use. Cars were "designed" to be driven. Every component on the vehicle was engineered for daily use. Not using something does not make it better. This is why warranties on even an expensive car like a Porsche have a time and mileage component to them. But if your still not convinced try staying in bed for a few weeks and see how you feel.

[rokemester]

Originally Posted by Rodsrsr

The wives tale is believing that a car sitting for 20 years will be in better condition than one which has had moderate use. Cars were "designed" to be driven. Every component on the vehicle was engineered for daily use. Not using something does not make it better. This is why warranties on even an expensive car like a Porsche have a time and mileage component to them. But if your still not convinced try staying in bed for a few weeks and see how you feel.

So true! Great analogy.

[ficke]

Bad analogy, living things are different then mechanical things.
The steel parts that make up a car last longer sitting on a shelf or assembled in a car than being used.
Time will deteriorate the other parts used are not used.
Some components like brakes benefit from being used and having the fluid changed. Cars driving once in awhile benefit from having the oil sloshed over stuff to prevent rust. But over all low miles are better than higher miles, less wear.
So yes, unused cars or like NOS parts Or lightly used parts, they have more value, how much I really do not know and some people put way to much value on low miles.
I am speaking from some one who has been in the field of maintaining cars , trucks and heavy equipment for 35 years and having seen both unused and used vehicles brought back to use and what it takes to do that.

[rokemester]

I appreciate the insightful and constructive comments in this thread. Extremely useful. Thanks!! The owner of the low mileage VW is an air cooled guy from way back. He still has regrets selling a Vert Ghia a long time ago. At least it wasn’t a 21 window bus! He’s getting up there in years and just doesn’t see himself being able to drive it much. It was strictly a summer car and hasn’t been driven in 2 summers. I think one of his better options is to auction the car on the BaT site if they’ll agree to list it.