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Registered
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Westford, MA USA
Posts: 8,861
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Wayne;
Given your MIT background and the things that you've written, you're most likely familiar with "Gaming Theory". "GT" would suggest that while there is some abstract "correct" value for everything, it really doesn't matter as much as the game/negotiation. The objective is to maximize your own value - which often entails maximizing the value for the other player(s). So what am I getting at with this mumbo-jumbo????
1) Make a couple of models of the economics of running a BBS. As people mention, the finances seem to be pretty grim the more successful they get. Once you have 2 or 3 validated models, you will most likely have a pretty good idea what the ball park is. Put these aside.
2) Figure out how much a BMW BBS would be valuable to you (NPV of the cash values is the industry standard). As mentioned earlier, this could assume a certain amount of purchase activity based on the BBS activity. Since you don't have any direct IT links between your BBS and your business, you might just want to consider a quick coorelation analysis between BBS activity and Pelican's revenues. A richer picture could be derived by considering each of the different Porsche forums (Aircooled verus watercooled for instance) separately versus the related revenue stream at Pelican.
Those two points will pretty much define the two extremes of the negotiation. Then the game is one to try to maximise the difference between the actual purchase price and your perceived value. This can be done by either haggling down the purchase price or taking some of the purchase price out of cash and into some other commodity which the seller values more then you do. The other option is to increase your value by developing ways to make more money from the BBS - but you were going to do this anyhow.
So there is my not so short $0.02 (as always). Good luck!
PS: Why don't you have sales for BBS members? For example - after 100 or 1000 posts, a X% certificate to Pelican if the user registers their email address and BBS user name in Pelican's customer database? Or how about a frequent Pelican status after spending $Y and registering on the BBS?
__________________
John
'69 911E
"It's a poor craftsman who blames their tools" -- Unknown
"Any suspension -- no matter how poorly designed -- can be made to work reasonably well if you just stop it from moving." -- Colin Chapman
Last edited by jluetjen; 09-09-2002 at 07:04 AM..
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