collector's items that tanked in value

[daepp]

Anything ever produced by the Franklin "Mint"...

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by tabs

Equities, RE, Treasury Bonds, and USD's.

Sometimes it is just too fkin easy...

It's easy when your a schizophrenic with no grasp on reality ?

Equities and RE are at all time highs.
10 year treasuries were up 20% from 2019, as rates dropped.
USD to EUR is flat for the last 2 decades

Keep smokin ' that crack pipe!

[sugarwood]

Careful.

I presented the following logic a while back, and some fools here mentally imploded
They sadly think there is permanent demand for "my precious"... Delusion.

I will paste some of my favorite snippets:

Give it time.
Guess what they said about Model T's in the 1950s ?
Today, you can't give one away.

Has nothing to do with production numbers or utility.
15mm T's built, yet it's easier to find a 911 for sale. Why is that?
The bottom line is that, at some point, all the people who like these cars will ALL be dead, on the proper timeline.
The are all destined for the scrap heap. Not if, but when. 50 year, 100 years, that's just details.

Production numbers don't mean squat when demand evaporates.
There are many rare stamps and coins with VERY low production numbers.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.
Hummels used to be worth a lot of money.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.

So yea, every one of our cars is heading to its scrap value.
Think bigger.

Timeline illustrates the logical refutation of facile assertions that "these items can only rise in value because of low production numbers and practical utility".

In our lifetimes, we've already seen demand decline for the model T, the '32 Ford, the '57 Chevy T
... and the latest segment, the 60s muscle car, as the cruise night cohort slowly migrates to nursing homes.

Slowly, and within your lifetime, you will see demand diminish as generations die off.
Eventually... You won't be able to give your "57 Chevy" away. Drive on!

Still don't get it?

Ever hear of Elvis?
Or the Elvis museum in Vegas?
Guess what, people who now go to Vegas have no idea who Elvis is.
No one cares.
Yea, Elvis museum IN VEGAS recently closed. Forever.
Make room for the new nostalgia.

Take a guess why almost every auto museum in the country is a money losing disaster.

So, you go right on thinking that your PORSCHE can only forever go up in price forever because demand will forever rise since nursing homes will soon have track days.
Oddly, anyone who has said this about their '67 Camaro is clearly a fool, yet "this time it's different" when it comes to your particular 911.

57 Chevy? If you have watched prices, there has been a clear and consistent downtrend for the last 10-15 years.
This will only continue as people who like the '57 Chevy increasingly die off. This is not a hard concept to grasp. And it's not a new idea. Generations come and go.

How long do you have to wait for demand to disappear? Until you are dead. Get it? You represent a data point of someone who is very interested in the 911E. You are not alone. But, once you (along with your entire cohort) are dead, the demand for 911E will evaporate, just like your scattered ashes. You are the demand, so you don't get to be exempt from the very forces that create the market dynamic in the first place. You will never get a 911E for dirt cheap, but your kids might, by definition.

Still don't get it?

Look at the collector guitar market. The new generation does not even identify guitars as cool. Guitars are for old dads. Dads are not cool. DJ mixing tables are the new cool. As guitar people slowly age out, the price has been on a decline for many years. The Millennials will not be propping up the vintage guitar market when they hit peak earnings years. Before electric guitars, accordions were a very popular instrument early in the last century. Guess what vintage accordion demand looks like now compared to the peak? Limited production numbers? LOL, doesn't matter when you can't even give one away.

Not everyone can grasp that nostalgia demand is a sliding window. Think bigger. Short term blips are natural variation ebbs and flows. Longer term, history will prove you wrong. They can continue thinking the Millennials will really ramp up the demand for the Duesenberg market once they hit their prime earning years.

Most 20s car guys are into hot hatch GTI/Golf, Evo, WRX, GM muscle, and truck culture.
Many others simply drive F-150's, Elantra, Focus, Civic, etc.
The freak outlier 20s kid who is into 993 does not mean much of anything.

Still don't get it?

Things evolve.
Apple sold more watches than the entire Swiss watch industry in 2017.
And smart watches are still in their nascent stages of evolution.

Kids don't think grandpa's Rolex is cool.
Nothing about grandpa is cool.
One steampunk outlier misfit does not a trend make.

Mechanical watches are another dying industry.
But, you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

Demand for generational nostalgia items decreases over time.
I am correct. When your generation dies off, the production numbers will mean squat.
Model T, '32 Ford, '57 Chevy, Tubbed '67 Camaro......all dwindling demand over decades.

Just remember there will be ZERO demand for your car once your generation is dead.
I drive my 911 a few times a week.
Drive 'em while you got 'em.

Still don't get it?

In the end, when your generation is 100% dead, demand will be much lower than it was when you were alive. Won't matter how great the car was.
Victorian furniture is infinitely higher quality than the disposable garbage sold at Bob's Discount. However, demand has evaporated for 17th & 18th century antiques.

Your generation will not die simultaneously from a large asteroid.
You will die off, slowly, one at a time. Drop by drop.
So, why is it relevant to the topic at hand?
The long term trend can manifest into the short term.

And, rest assured, the long term trend is that fewer and fewer people are lusting after a 1946 Ford Super Deluxe Coupe.
By now, they are all dead or dying. Buyers evaporate, inventory sits longer, and eventually prices reflect that.

And before the court jester says,
"But....but....but....what that gotta do with PORSCH"

A) The cycle never stops. Nothing is immune to time.
B) This is too complicated for you. Find a new discussion.

Still don't get it?
Generations move on....

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2018/10/17/why-are-these-desirable-collector-cars-cooling-down

“With the Shelbys, GTO, and Challenger, it looks like values are generally tracking pretty flat, but buyer interest (which we track via quote activity) is way down for all of them,” he notes. “The number being added to insurance policies is down, and auction results have been pretty weak.” While their value is holding strong, there just aren’t a lot of new buyers entering that market.
“A lot of the '40s, '50s and early '60s domestics go along with something we've been seeing generally, that lots of '40s and '50s cars primarily appeal to buyers who are quite a bit older. Younger enthusiasts aren't taking up the mantle, so demand is shrinking. This definitely seems to be the case with the bottom spot, the Stylemaster. Values dropped quite a bit recently, and buyers don't seem to be interested in them.”
The lesson is that younger car buyers aren’t “taking up the mantle” on the older cars

[jorian]

Quit beating around the bush sugarwood. Tell us how you really feel. Out with it man.

[911boost]

How many threads are you going to copy and paste that into?

[ramonesfreak]

i think your thinking is off about guitars. i’ve been buying guitars since 1985. i’ve owned and still own many very fine instruments. none of them, even my early PRS, will appreciate much, if at all, in my lifetime....but it has nothing at all to do with changing tastes. zero. to the extent they hold their value it will be because you will no longer be able to buy a new guitar made of hardwood

the valuable, investment grade guitars were made in the 50s and early 60s....., almost nothing (there are some notable exceptions) after that would i consider “collectible” or an investment. it has nothing to do with kids interest in rock and roll declining or interest in guitars going the way of the accordion. those investment quality guitars from the 50s and 60s will always be valuable simply because of what they are and what they represent and because they are rare....so long as there are wealthy people on this planet. the guitars that are investment quality are not bought by average people like you and I, they are bought by movie stars, investment bankers and rich rock stars like john meyer (didn’t he buy every dumble amp on earth?) or obsessive musician collectors like joe bonamasa. and i don’t believe changing taste or age will impact that because there are simply so few of them that demand will always be greater than supply

other than the 50s and 60s fender, gibson, ricks, and old martins etc there’s simply no such thing as a collectible investment guitar and if you buy one thinking otherwise.....then you bought it for the wrong reason.

and i don’t know what your talking about the price being on the decline for years....huh? as for new, the prices continue to go up. my santa cruz acoustic i bought about 15 years ago for $3,200 now costs over $6,000 new. even the new american std strats have gone up. all new boutique acoustics like collings, are now priced so high i could never buy one....with an avg price of about $7k....and those 50s teles and strats keep going up and will continue to do so....

it’s like saying the value of a picasso will go down because the new generation prefers electronic art or the value of a frank lloyd wright home will decline because people prefer modern kitchens

if what your saying is that your current high end modern guitar will be worth nothing 50 years from now....well maybe but who gives a crap. i’ll have been dead for decades by then and the idea of my guitars being an investment will be totally irrelevant.....and never was relevant because all my guitars, vintage or new, were bought to be played, and were

Originally Posted by sugarwood

Careful.

I presented the following logic a while back, and some fools here mentally imploded
They sadly think there is permanent demand for "my precious"... Delusion.

I will paste some of my favorite snippets:

Give it time.
Guess what they said about Model T's in the 1950s ?
Today, you can't give one away.

Has nothing to do with production numbers or utility.
15mm T's built, yet it's easier to find a 911 for sale. Why is that?
The bottom line is that, at some point, all the people who like these cars will ALL be dead, on the proper timeline.
The are all destined for the scrap heap. Not if, but when. 50 year, 100 years, that's just details.

Production numbers don't mean squat when demand evaporates.
There are many rare stamps and coins with VERY low production numbers.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.
Hummels used to be worth a lot of money.
Guess what? They are worthless now. No one wants them. Demand collapsed.

So yea, every one of our cars is heading to its scrap value.
Think bigger.

Timeline illustrates the logical refutation of facile assertions that "these items can only rise in value because of low production numbers and practical utility".

In our lifetimes, we've already seen demand decline for the model T, the '32 Ford, the '57 Chevy T
... and the latest segment, the 60s muscle car, as the cruise night cohort slowly migrates to nursing homes.

Slowly, and within your lifetime, you will see demand diminish as generations die off.
Eventually... You won't be able to give your "57 Chevy" away. Drive on!

Still don't get it?

Ever hear of Elvis?
Or the Elvis museum in Vegas?
Guess what, people who now go to Vegas have no idea who Elvis is.
No one cares.
Yea, Elvis museum IN VEGAS recently closed. Forever.
Make room for the new nostalgia.

Take a guess why almost every auto museum in the country is a money losing disaster.

So, you go right on thinking that your PORSCHE can only forever go up in price forever because demand will forever rise since nursing homes will soon have track days.
Oddly, anyone who has said this about their '67 Camaro is clearly a fool, yet "this time it's different" when it comes to your particular 911.

57 Chevy? If you have watched prices, there has been a clear and consistent downtrend for the last 10-15 years.
This will only continue as people who like the '57 Chevy increasingly die off. This is not a hard concept to grasp. And it's not a new idea. Generations come and go.

How long do you have to wait for demand to disappear? Until you are dead. Get it? You represent a data point of someone who is very interested in the 911E. You are not alone. But, once you (along with your entire cohort) are dead, the demand for 911E will evaporate, just like your scattered ashes. You are the demand, so you don't get to be exempt from the very forces that create the market dynamic in the first place. You will never get a 911E for dirt cheap, but your kids might, by definition.

Still don't get it?

Look at the collector guitar market. The new generation does not even identify guitars as cool. Guitars are for old dads. Dads are not cool. DJ mixing tables are the new cool. As guitar people slowly age out, the price has been on a decline for many years. The Millennials will not be propping up the vintage guitar market when they hit peak earnings years. Before electric guitars, accordions were a very popular instrument early in the last century. Guess what vintage accordion demand looks like now compared to the peak? Limited production numbers? LOL, doesn't matter when you can't even give one away.

Not everyone can grasp that nostalgia demand is a sliding window. Think bigger. Short term blips are natural variation ebbs and flows. Longer term, history will prove you wrong. They can continue thinking the Millennials will really ramp up the demand for the Duesenberg market once they hit their prime earning years.

Most 20s car guys are into hot hatch GTI/Golf, Evo, WRX, GM muscle, and truck culture.
Many others simply drive F-150's, Elantra, Focus, Civic, etc.
The freak outlier 20s kid who is into 993 does not mean much of anything.

Still don't get it?

Things evolve.
Apple sold more watches than the entire Swiss watch industry in 2017.
And smart watches are still in their nascent stages of evolution.

Kids don't think grandpa's Rolex is cool.
Nothing about grandpa is cool.
One steampunk outlier misfit does not a trend make.

Mechanical watches are another dying industry.
But, you're certainly entitled to your opinion.

Demand for generational nostalgia items decreases over time.
I am correct. When your generation dies off, the production numbers will mean squat.
Model T, '32 Ford, '57 Chevy, Tubbed '67 Camaro......all dwindling demand over decades.

Just remember there will be ZERO demand for your car once your generation is dead.
I drive my 911 a few times a week.
Drive 'em while you got 'em.

Still don't get it?

In the end, when your generation is 100% dead, demand will be much lower than it was when you were alive. Won't matter how great the car was.
Victorian furniture is infinitely higher quality than the disposable garbage sold at Bob's Discount. However, demand has evaporated for 17th & 18th century antiques.

Your generation will not die simultaneously from a large asteroid.
You will die off, slowly, one at a time. Drop by drop.
So, why is it relevant to the topic at hand?
The long term trend can manifest into the short term.

And, rest assured, the long term trend is that fewer and fewer people are lusting after a 1946 Ford Super Deluxe Coupe.
By now, they are all dead or dying. Buyers evaporate, inventory sits longer, and eventually prices reflect that.

And before the court jester says,
"But....but....but....what that gotta do with PORSCH"

A) The cycle never stops. Nothing is immune to time.
B) This is too complicated for you. Find a new discussion.

Still don't get it?
Generations move on....

https://www.hagerty.com/articles-videos/articles/2018/10/17/why-are-these-desirable-collector-cars-cooling-down

“With the Shelbys, GTO, and Challenger, it looks like values are generally tracking pretty flat, but buyer interest (which we track via quote activity) is way down for all of them,” he notes. “The number being added to insurance policies is down, and auction results have been pretty weak.” While their value is holding strong, there just aren’t a lot of new buyers entering that market.
“A lot of the '40s, '50s and early '60s domestics go along with something we've been seeing generally, that lots of '40s and '50s cars primarily appeal to buyers who are quite a bit older. Younger enthusiasts aren't taking up the mantle, so demand is shrinking. This definitely seems to be the case with the bottom spot, the Stylemaster. Values dropped quite a bit recently, and buyers don't seem to be interested in them.”
The lesson is that younger car buyers aren’t “taking up the mantle” on the older cars

[herr_oberst]

Elvis was the fifth highest paid dead celebrity in 2020. 40 million buckaroos.
That's a hunka-hunka burnin' loot, baby.

[monoflo]

Gotta agree with Sugarwood -- When you buy a vehicle -enjoy it -its best a personnal preference.

What goes up usually must come down.

[ramonesfreak]

never once in my life have i ever bought anything with the idea that it would go up in value someday, except for my house

I buy the things I want for whatever reason (i like it, i want it, i need it) and always buy the best quality example of whatever it is

But then again, I have never had the luxury of having so much money that I dont know what to do with it causing me to invest in items of personal property for the purpose of diversification

Have many of the things I bought increased in value? Yes definitely. But since I dont consider it an investment, what difference does it make?

For example, I collect vinyl records. Many of the records I have were bought for $1 (dollar bin) 25 years ago and they are now worth $20 to $30 each. I didnt buy them to invest and I have no intention of not listening to vinyl ever in my lifetime so they are not going to be for sale. When Im dead, my wife will either toss my 40 years worth of collecting to the curb or have another collector purchase the entire collection for pennies on the dollar and that guy will be the one who makes the money

I have always thought people who bought beenie babies, or other such trash that had no real interest to them, as an investment to be, well......very strange with no real interests in life

My opinion is different if you are in fact in the business of collecting stuff you are not interested in because you know it to be appreciating in value.....like the American Pickers guys and other antique dealer types i know. Thats totally different and I understand that

[ramonesfreak]

I will admit that I have occasionally cashed in on some of my items that were surprisingly valuable, although not purchased for the sake of investment

about 10 years ago I sold 80 boxes of OLD but unopened polaroid film for $1,000. I sorta regret it now but at the time I was happy

[craigster59]

Originally Posted by ramonesfreak

i think your thinking is off about guitars. i’ve been buying guitars since 1985. i’ve owned and still own many very fine instruments. none of them, even my early PRS, will appreciate much, if at all, in my lifetime....but it has nothing at all to do with changing tastes. zero. to the extent they hold their value it will be because you will no longer be able to buy a new guitar made of hardwood

The CITES Treaty that eliminated the harvesting of Brazilian Rosewood made the earlier Martins (especially the D-28's) jump in value. But you're right, enjoy what you have and enjoy playing it and quit worrying about value.

But these, who would've thought an old Sears guitar would jump that much in value?

[Zeke]

Well, if Sugarwood is correct, any Model T that can't be given away has a place in my garage. I'm down for that.

Meanwhile, I toy with an idea to take an MG kit car and modify the fenders and whatever else is necessary to replicate a MG TC complete with the 18" wire wheels. Ones I see that are in a "project" status are still too much money.

Not saying any kit car goes up in value, they just seem to be on par with the build cost, labor excluded. And as that goes up, so does the price of existing examples. Not an investment, for sure.

[Bob Kontak]

Originally Posted by ramonesfreak

about 10 years ago I sold 80 boxes of OLD but unopened polaroid film for $1,000. I sorta regret it now but at the time I was happy

Interesting. They sell new on Amazon. Was it nostalgia that drove the demand?

Originally Posted by sugarwood

"my precious"

There can be only one.

[ramonesfreak]

the association with Buck Owens likely helps.

There is no doubt that much of the real vintage gear, prior to 1970, has value that will not decrease, regardless of the mass population's musical taste. They only made so much of it and only so much of it still exists....the collectors market doesnt really require a massive marketplace...it only takes a few with interest and money to keep the value of the real vintage stuff high

the idea that the newer generations lack of interest (because guitars are for dads or old men) will kill the collectors market is a bunch of baloney

Remember back in 1964 when the news said that the Beatles were just a fad...or when some claimed Rock and Roll would come and go in a few years?

well....here we are are

Originally Posted by craigster59

The CITES Treaty that eliminated the harvesting of Brazilian Rosewood made the earlier Martins (especially the D-28's) jump in value. But you're right, enjoy what you have and enjoy playing it and quit worrying about value.

But these, who would've thought an old Sears guitar would jump that much in value?

[ramonesfreak]

Originally Posted by Bob Kontak

Interesting. They sell new on Amazon. Was it nostalgia that drove the demand?



There can be only one.

I dont think so. It was right when polaroid stopped making it if I recall and my suspicion was that likely a well known artist/photographer or hollywood type bought it up for a project...or was hoarding it due to low supply

Actually thinking back I think I sold almost $2,000 in film to the guy even though the expiration date on each box said the film was 10 years old

[tabs]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

It's easy when your a schizophrenic with no grasp on reality ?

Equities and RE are at all time highs.
10 year treasuries were up 20% from 2019, as rates dropped.
USD to EUR is flat for the last 2 decades

Keep smokin ' that crack pipe!

And DEMAND for your perceptions has just collapsed...

[Helix8]

My demand for Sugarwood (if I really had any) died a long time ago but here he is, yet again. Really cannot wait for his trend to end as it is so tiresome. Maybe start working new material to express how really angry you are at who knows what?

Tabs beat me me to it

[tabs]

One reason why demand for Mdl T's has declined is that they are not modern cars that are viable on the road today. they cant keep up. So their utility value even if it is Cruise Night is negligible.

Dey is mechanically obsolete...

[LEAKYSEALS951]

Parlor guitars predate (and post date) model-T fords.

https://reverb.com/news/parlor-guitar-revival

I've been good this year, and I am a huge Larson fan.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/1931-Larson-Brothers-Prarie-State-425-Natural-Acoustic-Parlor-Guitar-w-OHSC/274120258120?hash=item3fd2d73248:g:xDAAAOSwEP5d4an-

A little pricey, and I'm having a hard time believing the fretboard inlay is original, but perhaps:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Martin-00-28-Guitar-Mid-to-late-1800s/233733209125?hash=item366b95bc25:g:vhcAAOSwsMZfd8c e

Another nice example:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Holzapfel-Beitel-Parlor-Guitar-1900-Around/184704533959?hash=item2b013f85c7:g:3XIAAOSwlkBgSTn o

These are only asking prices, but seem to be high considering everyone who ever played them has died off and there should be no interest. They don't even have humbuckers. WTH?!?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by ramonesfreak

never once in my life have i ever bought anything with the idea that it would go up in value someday, except for my house

I buy the things I want for whatever reason (i like it, i want it, i need it) and always buy the best quality example of whatever it is

But then again, I have never had the luxury of having so much money that I dont know what to do with it causing me to invest in items of personal property for the purpose of diversification

Have many of the things I bought increased in value? Yes definitely. But since I dont consider it an investment, what difference does it make?

For example, I collect vinyl records. Many of the records I have were bought for $1 (dollar bin) 25 years ago and they are now worth $20 to $30 each. I didnt buy them to invest and I have no intention of not listening to vinyl ever in my lifetime so they are not going to be for sale. When Im dead, my wife will either toss my 40 years worth of collecting to the curb or have another collector purchase the entire collection for pennies on the dollar and that guy will be the one who makes the money

I have always thought people who bought beenie babies, or other such trash that had no real interest to them, as an investment to be, well......very strange with no real interests in life

My opinion is different if you are in fact in the business of collecting stuff you are not interested in because you know it to be appreciating in value.....like the American Pickers guys and other antique dealer types i know. Thats totally different and I understand that

Houses were not considered to be piggy banks until the mid 70's when houses started to go up exponentially in value. They were considered to be an overhead expense. That was when the USD was still considered to be stable. The housing inflation belies an underlying economic instability...Since the 70's RE has been boom and bust..