The price of classic P-cars & the internet, BaT, etc

[Deschodt]

I know we've covered the price escalation of nice old porsches, but recently we kept hearing the market cooled off and things were stabilizing...

I was "watching" a pretty but slightly basketcase car on Bring a Trailer... I'm coming to the conclusion that the internet is ruining everything ;-) and BaT is a good place to sell but not buy, *Ever*...

Picture that car if you would.. cool but generally accepted as the least desirable of its kind. Potential body clip, some rust, non matching engine or tranny, wrong type of both... already redone floors... Nothing critical, mind you, nice looking driver or outlaw material....where's the meat on that bone? Unless you get matching #s the potential for upside for any money thrown at making the car better are slim. If you don't care and are building a driver that's cool too, but at that price ? What when you wanna resell 5 years later ? That car ended up selling for 50% over "good car" - cost to get that one there...

At this point, seems to me that enthusiasts that know the cost of a resto and parts are left to fend for themselves with grieving widows and barns finds... *anything* listed on the internet now reaches ***so many*** folks that statistically, given the average amount of interested newbies, Google employee with stock options, regular very rich people, or rich car-clueless people, it's practically impossible to score a "correct" price on a classic car anymore... By correct I mean: Purchase price + resto cost = general vicinity of the finished product value...

By definition these days if you win an auction, you've agreed to overpay more than hundreds of people and at least one amongst them that doesn't understand what he's getting into and has got very deep pockets... Me-think hobby kinda over...
On the flip side, I'm gonna sell a car or 2 there now !!!

[Shaun @ Tru6]

My observations based almost solely on auditing BaT is that the 911 market has only cooled for uninteresting 911s but most for Turbos in general. I continue to see special color and special option cars go for obscene amounts of money. Some 10+ years ago, there was an article in Excellence that predicted exactly this phenomenon. It's as though all the buyers for the last 6 months read that article and hold it as gospel making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. The Turbo market has cooled but prices are still 2-3X what they were before the bubble. Remember the days when a nice Turbo was $35K?

[Deschodt]

Oh I get that... but lately I’m seeing even cars with little upside in value sell for way more than say, a perfect end result minus cost of repairs. Not in person, on auction sites.

Seems to me the reach of those internet auctions are introducing so many new people that statistically, there’ll always be one richer clueless guy willing to overpay ! So getting stuff at a correct price (even a high price at current market values) is getting almost impossible...

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by Deschodt

So getting stuff at a correct price (even a high price at current market values) is getting almost impossible...

How do you define, "correct market values?" It seems to me the correct market value is what a willing buyer and willing seller settle on.

[p911dad]

One thing I have noticed lately is the rising number of auctions that don't make it to the reserve price. It seems to me that some sellers have unrealistic expectations of value or the market is reacting to an oversupply of cool and semi-cool cars on the market. One recent day I counted 18 various Porsches on BaT.
Another thing is the sheer nastiness of some of the comments by the peanut gallery. That alone would discourage me from listing a car.

[Deschodt]

What I mean is whatever the market value is for a nice or perfect car - not arguing whatever that is or price increases - I’m seeing cars that are far from perfect selling for way too close to that market value, instead of, say, 50% thereof. On auction sites.
If a car sells for 100k on average in good shape (based on classifieds, auctions, guides, insurance values) and a particular one needs 50k of repairs to get to that “good shape” level, auction sites seem to sell them not for the expected 50k ( I realize it’s not perfect math in most situations). It’s more like they are going for 80... I’m just guessing - and I could be wrong - that with this growing reach of internet sites, there are lots of folks new to the hobby unaware of true cost of repairs or what constitutes collectibility, that *statistically* will show up to pretty much all those online auctions and overpay.

And that kills the “fix it as you go”’car enthusiast options that used to exist... Seems to me now you gotta buy a perfect car or stay home.
Or buy outside of those sites. Great places for selling though !

[sugarwood]

If you want a decent price, find one for sale locally.

Which one of these cars were you referring to?
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1974-porsche-carrera-3/
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1977-porsche-911s-15/

[JackDidley]

The internet and cable TV have pushed perceived values up to insane numbers. The auctions we see with wealthy people bedding drive prices up. I went to a Mecum auction last year and witnessed it first hand. Special section for the high rollers with a nice bar to keep them happy. People on the internet tend to pump up prices by repeating things that may or may not be true just because its the cool thing to do. That is, Joe Blow says the NSX is the greatest car ever. Must be true so it gets repeated 1000000 times on a 100 websites. Prices go up.

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by JackDidley

The internet and cable TV have pushed perceived values up to insane numbers. The auctions we see with wealthy people bedding drive prices up. I went to a Mecum auction last year and witnessed it first hand. Special section for the high rollers with a nice bar to keep them happy. People on the internet tend to pump up prices by repeating things that may or may not be true just because its the cool thing to do. That is, Joe Blow says the NSX is the greatest car ever. Must be true so it gets repeated 1000000 times on a 100 websites. Prices go up.

Hype works...sure does.

I agree with the above, but will add that scarcity is beginning to become a real thing for the air coolers. They aren't making any more of them, and it's been 20 years since even the newest was new. Screws up basic supply and demand curves. And, makes every guy with a crashed rat with a bad quickie paint job think he has a Singer.

But the biggest thing, by far, is the emotions and demographics of the folks who buy these cars. Those of us who remember when the cars were new and we were a lot younger. We happen to be in or approaching our peak earning years, when we can afford things that take us back in time--like much younger blonde girlfriends/second wives and aircooled 911s.

Time will come when we all die off, and a whole new generation of "flat six classics fans" (996, 997, and 991) will replace us as the bulge in the enthusiast's python. Air cooled guys will be a distant second place, and 356 fans will be there hardly at all.

[sugarwood]

Was scarcity also a factor when 60's muscle crashed 50% in price ?
After all, they aren't making any more of these either.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by madcorgi

But the biggest thing, by far, is the emotions and demographics of the folks who buy these cars. Those of us who remember when the cars were new and we were a lot younger. We happen to be in or approaching our peak earning years, when we can afford things that take us back in time--like much younger blonde girlfriends/second wives and aircooled 911s.

Time will come when we all die off, and a whole new generation of "flat six classics fans" (996, 997, and 991) will replace us as the bulge in the enthusiast's python. Air cooled guys will be a distant second place, and 356 fans will be there hardly at all.

Originally Posted by sugarwood

Was scarcity also a factor when 60's muscle crashed 50% in price ?
After all, they aren't making any more of these either.

Not very often when you see an answer come before a question in consecutive posts! This is the crux of the issue- the generation that really loved these 911s has money to spend, and they will overspend to relive their youth. It's entirely generational, and is the exact same thing that pushed muscle cars into crazytown. Muscle cars are dropping like stones for the exact same reason- the guys spending crazy money for 911s don't want a muscle car. There's a degree of hype as well, people start thinking that they have to buy NOW while they still can becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy and drives the prices higher still.

As a guy who has had multiple fixer-upper Porsches dictated by my limited budget, it does make me sad. Generally speaking these have appreciated beyond the realm of an enthusiast who wants to drive his 911 during the week and tinker on the weekend. Hell, they have appreciated beyond the price range of most enthusiasts period. Unlike muscle cars, which I've always found better to look at than drive, it's a real shame that so many of these cars are going into collections where they won't be enjoyed as the great driving cars that they are.

[cairns]

I wanted an old Porsche but bought a new one. Same money- much better car. The OP is right IMO- the AC market is overdue for a much bigger correction. And BAT is for idiots with too much money.

[widebody911]

BaT is a good place to sell but not buy

Pretty much sums up any auction: BJ, Mecum, BAT, ebay...

[tdw28210]

The market for Turbos is way off their peak. Cars that sold for $145k 18 to 24 months ago are now going for $85k to $95k. As Shaun noted, still way above their traditional differential vs an NA car. Also, I've seen a cooling in the "baby Singer" space too. Look at the heavily modified cars some of our of fellow Pelicans have recently sold. They too seem to be changing hands in the mid to high $100s vs low $200s of 18 months ago.

[Deschodt]

To be clear, I am not debating the merit of the current prices at all, we all agree... We've all seen them go stratospheric, and it is what it is.

My "amusement/ annoyance" is seeing even really poor cars (that put anyone upside down right out of the gate) sell for high amount on those sites. There really aren't options left for us enthusiasts willing to weld/rewire/repair in our garages, and mathematically we're better off buying a perfect car for $$$$ instead of those crappy ones for *almost* all the money...

I'm not bitter about the new prices, I will benefit from them when I sell my cars someday, I'm just sad I can't have a "project" anymore, something to keep me busy on evenings or week ends. Those projects make zero financial sense anymore unless YOU find them in a field and rescue them yourself... Too many people on those sites ;-(

[aigel]

A guy I know here who isn't really a car guy at all bought an early turbo to the tune of 150k as an "investment". DINK in his late 40s in the Silicon Valley. This guy also bought bitcoin and whatever else is "hot" at the moment. He is looking for places to put his money to make some more.

My point is that there is serious speculation aspect to this. BAT is a great place for the non-enthusiast to go just place a bid. Cars are well documented and the audience helps with dissecting it. I can totally see why someone like the above will buy from there and just hope that the market increases will take care of any premium they paid.

It pains me that my 993 is now worth enough where my wife refuses to drive it to work. I still run it through the motions, but am concerned about cooking it in the sun for the day etc. - something that wouldn't have crossed my mind when I bought it 12 (!) years ago at the bottom of the depreciation curve.

G

[Tervuren]

Originally Posted by Deschodt

Oh I get that... but lately I’m seeing even cars with little upside in value sell for way more than say, a perfect end result minus cost of repairs. Not in person, on auction sites.

Seems to me the reach of those internet auctions are introducing so many new people that statistically, there’ll always be one richer clueless guy willing to overpay ! So getting stuff at a correct price (even a high price at current market values) is getting almost impossible...

I would rather describe this as the item is rising to its correct price.

As the means of the people rise, the limited objects of the past that are desirable to the present day population will also rise.

[Tervuren]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

As a guy who has had multiple fixer-upper Porsches dictated by my limited budget, it does make me sad. Generally speaking these have appreciated beyond the realm of an enthusiast who wants to drive his 911 during the week and tinker on the weekend. Hell, they have appreciated beyond the price range of most enthusiasts period.

I suspect with your RX-8 you already know the below:

Just keep finding cars that aren't valued by collectors that you will be enjoying.

Find non Porsche's to enjoy.

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by Tervuren

Find non Porsche's to enjoy.

'Zactly. Better yet, forget cars.