Dow Surges 400 Points
 

DOW surges 400 points on FED chairman Powell's Dovish comments....and what have I bin telling you about the Dictatorship of the FED? Back in July I commented about Equities cracking and becoming choppy after an interest rate hike. Recently I commented that the WS Boyz were afraid that Powell was not going to be as sensitive to their needs as the previous chairman and that was what was causing choppiness.Today proves my point and I don't want to hear anymore inane and ignorant comments from you boyz about it being all about T or politics.

you sure told us so

Did anyone honestly think that rising interest rates were/are not impacting the stock market?

The voting members of the FED will continue the path they laid out in '15....and are 2/3rds of the way back to "normal". The market is still along for the ride...nothing has changed imo. The FED will raise the rates 4 more times.....next month, and 3 more times in'19...nothing new to see here....YMMV.

Us boyz..thank you Tabs

Did anyone think they wouldn't/aren't...honestly?

I think many/most believe that the remarks indicated that the projected '19 rate increases were less likely.

Agreed, to a point.
The FED plays games with the monetary supply which manipulates the markets. but why?
Is it because they truly believe they are "stabilizing" the economy or do they have ulterior motives to influence elections?
I believe a little of both.
Maybe not so much the moves and statements they make, as the TIMING of the moves and statements.


This was posted a week ago:

And this was posted three weeks ago:

That's their fault...nothing has changed. The FED rate will go 100 basis points higher by the end of '19...by consensus. His comments don't matter...nor do politics or the stock market results imo....it just is.

Hey Sammy...when exactly did the FED start this "manipulation" you speak of :)?

I looked at my 401K today, and was pleased greatly that my substantial investment is one of the only Fidelity funds that are still nicely in the positive returns for the year. Without this latest "surge" today which will more than likely improve my yearly return by an additional point, or two, I was still at 6.5% for the year, with the last 3 months all being negative.

TABS had nothing to do with this either....so a win/win !

1791, in Philadelphia. The guy responsible for starting the mess got shot in a duel.
See what I did there?

https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135



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Sooooo....what's yer point Sammy? Wanna abolish the FED instead...for what...

Bitcoins ;)?

Take away or at least limit their power to manipulate.
No more that 25bp per year increase or decrease with a minimum of say, 2% and a max of 4% would be a start.

A one day rebound after a two week bloodbath and Tabs is suddenly a fortune teller.

I'm sure ready to pay (would $2k/month be enough? It'll pay for itself in a week, for sure!) to get his newsletter to tell me how to invest my money to make 25% due to his proven, long term track record of 99% accurate predictions!!!

Weird, it goes up and down. That's never happened before!

past 2 weeks
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1543436415.JPG

past year
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1543436415.JPG

And 5 years (this one surely shows how screwed we are)
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1543436585.jpg

Didn't Tab'z predict that many years ago? Gotta give credit where credit is due imo :)

You forget the MADDOGS and Other Socialists comments so easily???? Let alone your own giving T all the credit...:rolleyes:

Now you are talkin and thank you...

One just can't get away from ignorance and the inane comments that comes outa their mouths...

You are are victims of your own worst selves..products of the of the perspective (prosperity) of the times you have been brought up in and the perceptions derived from those times. You continue to persisit in thinking that pre 08 economic dynamic is still operational*..having the same goals and methods of achieving them. It is a different dynamic a NEW NORMAL. You and the collective society are unable to be self reflective of you own perceptions..you can not see the flaws in your own thinking. Like the Lemmings you continue to rush for the cliff of oblivion all the while thinking that is the right thing to do. Never conceiving it is your own perceptions and methodology that is driving you to the cliff. That mindset is the dynamic which has caused all the previous great civilizations of history to fail.

If you take a look at events since 09, you see Equities fell off in the summer of 2010..European debt as causation,the fall off in the summer of 2011.. the brief shut down of govt and lowering of the US credit rating and in 2012 with the announcement of QE 3 in Sept 2012 a virtually uninterrupted rise in Equities. Now that QE3 dynamic was put into question with the advent of a new FED chairman and a seemingly Hawkish interest rate stance. What happened Equites became choppy with uncertainty introduced by the FED about their being proactive till the cows came home.

For me this is nothing more than making an accurate assessment and seeing the likely outcome..and I am very accurate, but then again I have always had that quality about me. I am the INTP personality type...





*MAGA is the slogan for trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

Month and year of the impending Armageddon? Since you are so tuned in...

All this and still humble.

snicker

...makes T seem like a rooster...cockle-doodle-doo :). I just saw some of JP's comments....nothing has changed significantly. The FED rates will be 100 pts. higher in 15 months or so....that's been well laid out months in advance since '15...the FED board hasn't wavered...nor should they imo. But nothing is cast in stone...

Only God knows the day and hour. Your comment infers that if I can not accurately give you the date then you can dismiss what I have to say as it has no merit. If that is the case it is useless even talking to you.

And . . . It's DOWN TODAY!

I told you boyz this would happen.

Every opinion in this thread is welcome. Tabs may be pessimistic but it is a valued viewpoint. So I would suggest that any financial decision be made keeping in mind your level of risk. :)

I certainly do not subscribe to Tab's armageddon theories...But I sold and went into laddered treasuries three months ago. Even with yesterdays big gains, I'm still ahead at a 2.85% aggregate...and I can sleep at night.

On a fixed income now, I think I'll just hang out on the sidelines for a year and see if this volitility stabilizes. I have 20% in a MM account at 1.58% avg yeild, If the avg PE on the S&P goes below 14, I'll come back in that.

Smart move. I still have some in play in mid to large caps domestic but my position is considerably more conservative than it has been in recent years.

Would've been even better if you called us all bichez.

If we don't get our heads out of our asses Armageddon could happen. Oir 105% to gdp is high but still manageable.

Debt to gdp needs to start dropping toward 90% and lower.

SS is an easy fix. Raise the wage limit on payroll taxes. Raise the age to receive benefits. Lower benefits. Various combinations of those resolve rhe problem. Our DC leadership doesn't the nutz to do any of rhat due to the public blowback that would head their way. The longer we wait the stiffer the solution.

Medicare/Medicaid is a serious problem. It will be damn near impossible to get it under control. We value life so much we will spend a Princes fortune to add a year pf life. As bad as it sounds, rationing is a possibility

Debt servicing is also a big problem. As debt increases the increased interest payments will eat up more and more of discretionary spending. Higher intereat rates will also add to the total. Lower debt to gdp is mandatory to keep debt servicing in control

Question is the political process becoming ever more dysfunctional and viperous?

Question is civil society becoming ever more unstable with frequent mass shootings etc?

Question are global tensions increasing resulting in fragmentation and chaos?

Question did I say right after the 2012 election that the "swirl of madness" was gaining momentum?

Question did I say in 2009..2010 that you could not put Humpty Dumpty (a dynamic and prosperous economy with a large and thriving MC..just like it was in the glory days of the 60's) back together again?

Question did I say in 09..10 that the great post WW2 American prosperity boom ws over?

Question did I say in 2010 that the world was facing "a new dark ages where Islam would be the beneficiary?" Where I was told by Nostatus to "take a chill pill."

Question in 2009 did I warn that the Chinese were going to try and get away from USD hegemony as quick as they could?

Since that date have the Chinese
...
Question have the Chinese stopped adding to their US Treasury position and started rolling it over into shorter maturity dates?

Question have the Chinese started to build a Blue Water Navy?

Question have the Chinese created trade deals with multiple nations where the USD is no longer the settlement currency?

Question have the Chinese created a SE Asia Investment bank to rival the US World Bank?

Question have the Chinese started their own OEX exchange where oil trades are settled in RMB backed by Gold and not USD?

Question do all of the above listed moves by the Chinese constitute getting away from USD hegemony?

Question in 2008 did I say that Putin was a geopolitical Great White Shark aka being an astute machiavellian political player...whose intent was to reconstitute Russian great power status?

Question in 2007 did I say that that "Trust is the glue that holds Democracy together" Trust that the opposing party is working for the good of the nation and not it's own self interest?

Question in 2007 did I say that the Democrats were going to "fix the system" so that they never lost power again? In light of what has happened the operative word is that they TRIED to fix the system.

Question did I say in sept 2012 that the SP 500 would run to 2250 with time being a modifying agent in that with time that level would not be fraught with risk? The inference being it could go higher.

Question did I say in Sept 2012 that the FED with QE3 had guaranteed the over and under on Equities with an activist monetary policy which would allow for Equities to run higher?.

Question - when is Armageddon taking place.

What are the UNINTENDED economic consequences of those fixes? The stark reality is that Americans by and large have SAVED NOTHING for those Golden Years. The burden for their support will be their families and that will put a crimp in their consumerism as they have less discretionary income to spend. As if they have any now and are not going further into debt as it stands .

This week I talked to a woman from India, she told me that if you did not have CASH to pay for your medical treatment in India the hospitals, MD's would NOT TREAT YOU and you could very well die for all they cared. So in India you NEED CASH to stay alive.

In the US that is not the case, they treat you no matter if you can pay or not. Question is is if the American medical system becomes like India's cash on the barrel head before you receive treatment WHAT DOES THAT DO TO CONSUMERISM? People will be forced to save money instead of spending it. What does that then do to the economy if suddenly they are selling a whole lot less stuff because people are saving money?

Do you see the error in your thinking? Do you see the Catch 22?

It is taking place all around you right now...it is a slow boil process of ever descending steps...

So you are MISTAKEN in thinking that it is a single event and it is all over now baby blue... Paul Ryan said, "That if the US didn't get it's deficit's under control that there would be a CRISIS." No maybe, not if..but with a matter of fact certainty...

Secular Materialism has reached a dead end...


Secular materialism has reached a dead end.

Two counts

1. Environmental deteroiation.

2. Using a debt acreation model to sustain a economy is unsustainable.

A. When the private economy reached its debt terminus in 08 that debt was subsumed by sovereign debt. When sovereign debt reaches its terminus the economy will implode if not civilization itself.

Seems to me I just stated rhe same thing. Paul Ryan said IF, then

So, I should be all in on gold bullion buried in my backyard? Or do you have other suggeatiojs for capital preservation.

I enjoy your posts Tabby....yer a regular ol' predictapotomous :). Who's gonna win the Super Bowl?

A: NO!

Nostradamus ain't got nuttin on Tabs.

In a 100 years there will be science journals written about his prowess.