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fintstone 07-13-2019 06:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by William930t (Post 10522505)
I am wondering why the FED even wants to ease rates in our current phase of slow steady growth, the longest such period in market history. A future correction or recession is likely, so why not wait until indicators show lowering rates will truly help: hold your ammo.

Why would you not? Is there such a thing as too many people working and making better wages in relatively low inflation environment?

I guess anyone that already has a great job or has made plenty of money would prefer higher interst...as their main concern is to keep what they have growing at better than inflation rates without any risk. Obviously. those that have not want jobs, better wages and less expensive housing, cars, etc...and the opportunity for a good stick market return.

Of course a future recession is likely, they are somewhat cyclical, and we are overdue. OTOH, one could make the case that we were due a couple of years ago...and signs were pointing to that...before the economy came roaring back with the current higher GDP growth rates, jobs, higher salaries, manufacturing, etc. Lower interest rates help all those things.

They want to ease rates to where they were before they mistakenly raised them. Sounds like good policy to me.

cabmandone 07-13-2019 10:16 AM

IMO there's nothing wrong with our economy that wouldn't be fixed by getting a deal done with China. The cynic in me feels that the administration is in no real hurry because the economy is still doing well and they know it will only do better once a deal is done. If that deal can be held off until 2020... why not wait?

tabs 07-13-2019 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10522208)
My question focused on Ted's thoughts on how the markets will react.

As Soon said NOT GOING TO HAPPEN....the debt ceiling has almost been a automatic roll over since 2011..That is when Standard & Poors LOWERED the US credit rating..

Since then the Tea Party has been castrated... no body even whimpers about the debt anymore..everything is swell in Munchkinland...

And it will be till it isn't...

tabs 07-13-2019 12:22 PM

I have been telling you for a very long time...that the US is burning the candle at both ends, with monetary policy and deficit spending... They are buying being swell with those policies..Sooner or later it ain't gona be swell anymore..

Till the music stops you play the game..Equities are great, RE has also been good...the fix is in..You just have to ride the wave...

The American people by and large are broke...no savings, low wages and huge debt...2 pay checks away from being homeless, cant meet a $400 crisis... that is the consumer base for the Global economy...the fatted calf...

I was talking to a woman from NYC her husband was a Stock Broker till 2008 and she worked in the fashion industry...she said that if you are working a service job in NYC you can not afford to live there...cost of living is huge.. I told her my thoughts and she said I was right..

Yesterday a friend talked to a 23 year old guy working in an Antique Mall...never plans to own a car, or home...says he will never be able to afford them....NOW THAT'S PESSIMISM>>>but it is also real...now you know why Socialism and Bernie is so popular...and is going to gain traction.

You boyz talk about how swell it is..Ohh boy how great it is ....that is fine...cant tell you any different...so head on...you don't get it and you never will till either you have to get it or you will perish..

Now you see that has been part of the trajectory I have been talking about...You can't stop a Lemming from running to the cliff...and their own destruction...They won't listen..but you have a moral obligation to try...at least till you have exhausted every rational you can think of...then you have to wish them well on their journey...Bon voyage...that last step is going to be a beoitch..

KFC911 07-13-2019 12:34 PM

Between fint and Tabz,....I dunno? Tabby if you and menuface were goin' at it.....hell...I'd just go hang with the lip-locking wimmins and drink heavily...on cheap credit....'til the bar closed...unless...

Oh schit...Vegas ;)

tabs 07-13-2019 12:57 PM

Why Socialism and Bernie is so popular...and is going to gain traction.

Rome was a Republic until the wealthy bought up all the land dispossessing the small farmers..then it was the guy who came along and gave them money, bread and circuses that became popular and the leader. Enter Julius Caesar, he was "for the people" wanting to institute reforms and was an open conduit of money to the people...everything he ever made was given to people for the end of becoming the number one guy in Rome..he became a very popular guy. Stuff didn't interest him he was buying political power with his money..

The Roman elites became very worried about Caesars ambitions especially after he conquered Gaul/France..he had huge amounts of money and military muscle with a veteran army that he was paying for..back in those days the generals paid their own armies..so that they had loyalty to the general and not the state.

So the Roman Senate decided to reign Caesar in telling him to disband his army, relinquish control of Gaul...and btw come to the Senate to answer for your actions.... Yep...he saw the handwriting on the wall and said fk that, crossing the Rubicon (the border between his province of Gaul and Rome) with his army...thus setting off a Civil War..

Shaun @ Tru6 07-13-2019 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs (Post 10522829)
As Soon said NOT GOING TO HAPPEN....the debt ceiling has almost been a automatic roll over since 2011..That is when Standard & Poors LOWERED the US credit rating..

Since then the Tea Party has been castrated... no body even whimpers about the debt anymore..everything is swell in Munchkinland...

And it will be till it isn't...

I don't understand what you are saying here. What will not happen?

Sooner or later 07-13-2019 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10522893)
I don't understand what you are saying here. What will not happen?

Failure to raise debt limit.

Shaun @ Tru6 07-13-2019 01:41 PM

That's never been in question.

Sooner or later 07-13-2019 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10522909)
That's never been in question.

I answered your question.

This is what happened in 2011 when it got to nut cutting time. Very similar to what I posted earlier.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt-ceiling_crisis_of_2011


On July 31, two days prior to when the Treasury estimated the borrowing authority of the United States would be exhausted, Republicans agreed to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for a complex deal of significant future spending cuts. The crisis did not permanently resolve the potential of future use of the debt ceiling in budgetary disputes, as shown by the subsequent debt-ceiling crisis of 2013.

The crisis sparked the most volatile week for financial markets since the 2008 crisis, with the stock market trending significantly downward. Prices of government bonds ("Treasuries") rose as investors, anxious over the dismal prospects of the US economic future and the ongoing European sovereign-debt crisis, fled into the still-perceived relative safety of US government bonds. Later that week, the credit-rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit rating of the United States government for the first time in the country's history, though the other two major credit-rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch, retained America's credit rating at AAA. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimated that the delay in raising the debt ceiling increased government borrowing costs by $1.3 billion in 2011 and also pointed to unestimated higher costs in later years.[1] The Bipartisan Policy Center extended the GAO's estimates and found that delays in raising the debt ceiling would raise borrowing costs by $18.9 billion.[2]

Shaun @ Tru6 07-13-2019 01:50 PM

No you didn't. My question was how will the markets react to needing to raise it.

Sooner or later 07-13-2019 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 10522215)
Bonds would hate it. Defaulting on payments (non bonds) due. Bonds rates would climb. US credit rating could decline. Market would drop due to concerns on lower US credit rating.

It is not going to happen. It may have short term implications if no deal is done with time running short.

I said

Sooner or later 07-13-2019 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 10522222)
We hit the limit earlier this hear. We are currently taking "extraordinary measures" to keep from going over. Early to mid Sept those "E M" will have run their course and other measures will take place. Loss of funding to National Parks, base commissary, those and other non essentials would be shut down or limited.

Short term little harm to bonds or stocks. Long term and a loss of faith creates problems.

And I said

Shaun @ Tru6 07-13-2019 01:52 PM

Yeah, I just asked what Ted thought about how the markets will react to needing to raise the ceiling.

Sooner or later 07-13-2019 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10522918)
No you didn't. My question was how will the markets react to needing to raise it.

Nothing if it is raised on a timely basis. The market already knows the situation. The market knows it must be rsised. No negative consequences.

Everybody and their dog knew the limit was hit earlier in the year. We have been shuffling money around to keep from going over. We will be out of the shuffling money in Sept. The ceiling will ne raised just like everyone knows it will be.

The debt ceiling, as I have said, does nothing if the budget doesn't take deficit into account.

Sooner or later 07-13-2019 02:03 PM

Norhing positive or negative if they raise the limit on a timely basis.

Negative if they don't on a timely manner. Severely negative if they don’t raise it at all.

Simple as that.

RWebb 07-13-2019 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KC911 (Post 10522861)
Between fint and Tabz,....I dunno? Tabby if you and menuface were goin' at it.....hell...I'd just go hang with the lip-locking wimmins and drink heavily...on cheap credit....'til the bar closed...unless...

Oh schit...Vegas ;)

Uno - is that you?

cabmandone 07-13-2019 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs (Post 10522829)
As Soon said NOT GOING TO HAPPEN....the debt ceiling has almost been a automatic roll over since 2011..That is when Standard & Poors LOWERED the US credit rating..

Since then the Tea Party has been castrated... no body even whimpers about the debt anymore..everything is swell in Munchkinland...

And it will be till it isn't...

Are you sure you've been paying attention? I was automatic until the big debt ceiling fight and then after. 1 year... it was problematic... every other year..... done and done.

fintstone 07-13-2019 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs (Post 10522854)
I have been telling you for a very long time...that the US is burning the candle at both ends, with monetary policy and deficit spending... They are buying being swell with those policies..Sooner or later it ain't gona be swell anymore..

Till the music stops you play the game..Equities are great, RE has also been good...the fix is in..You just have to ride the wave...

The American people by and large are broke...no savings, low wages and huge debt...2 pay checks away from being homeless, cant meet a $400 crisis... that is the consumer base for the Global economy...the fatted calf...

I was talking to a woman from NYC her husband was a Stock Broker till 2008 and she worked in the fashion industry...she said that if you are working a service job in NYC you can not afford to live there...cost of living is huge.. I told her my thoughts and she said I was right..

Yesterday a friend talked to a 23 year old guy working in an Antique Mall...never plans to own a car, or home...says he will never be able to afford them....NOW THAT'S PESSIMISM>>>but it is also real...now you know why Socialism and Bernie is so popular...and is going to gain traction.

You boyz talk about how swell it is..Ohh boy how great it is ....that is fine...cant tell you any different...so head on...you don't get it and you never will till either you have to get it or you will perish..

Now you see that has been part of the trajectory I have been talking about...You can't stop a Lemming from running to the cliff...and their own destruction...They won't listen..but you have a moral obligation to try...at least till you have exhausted every rational you can think of...then you have to wish them well on their journey...Bon voyage...that last step is going to be a beoitch..

I bought a nice house today. Cash purchase. I always planned to own a car and home. Times are so much better today than when I was young. Lots of jobs, opportunity for education, investment, ect.. It is not hard to make money.

A 24 year old that "never plans to own a car, or home" probably never will. Opting out of the struggle because it is hard will guarantee it. Sadly, some politicians help folks ruin their lives...because they have power over losers.

tabs 07-13-2019 11:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10523015)
Are you sure you've been paying attention? I was automatic until the big debt ceiling fight and then after. 1 year... it was problematic... every other year..... done and done.

Bottom line is that since 2011 nobody has or is going to seriously rock the boat because they do not want another credit downgrade.

Equities no problem so long as it gets done in a timely manner. Bonds no problem either..

Everybody has more or less gone to sleep on the debt...no body here cares..we are doing swell.


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