Sanity Check - Would you head into Dorian’s path?

[daepp]

I have a fairly rare opportunity to meet up with my daughter in Halifax, Nova Scotia this Friday through Monday. Fellow Pelican Yellow Peril has been very kind to keep me up to date on local weather, but it’s difficult for a So Cal guy (we just don’t “get” real weather) to discern what to expect - especially when there’s so much fear mongering in the “news”.

They do expect Dorian to head towards N.S. They expect it to be down to a Cat 1 by Saturday pm, but also to get between 2 and 4” of rain.

I’m guessing the airlines may cancel either my first flight into Newark, ormonce there would cancel my last leg into Halifax. But the tickets have been purchased...

Now sometimes when I hear stories of people in harm’s way I think, why didn’t they cancel/why didn’t they turn back. And of course, I’d hate to ask myself that question myself sometime this weekend. And at the same time I’d hate to cancel only to find out it was NBD.

So, any info would be appreciated. You guys who get real weather - what would you do? Any armchair forecasters - can you cut through the hype and help with the go/no go decision.

TIA

Fair Weather Dave

[ckelly78z]

If there is a heavy weather occurance anywhere on the Eastern seaboard, there will be many flights delayed, and/or cancelled if the connecting flights can't leave thier airport....kind of a snowball effect down the line. I would rethink your plans, or risk sitting in an airport for many hours.

We got delayed 20 hours in Charlotte for an ice storm in Boston a few years ago...not long enough to leave the airport with the hotel coucher they handed us.

[sc_rufctr]

Stay home and buy a ticket for your daughter so she can visit you instead.

Why risk it?

[sc_rufctr]

https://www.google.org/publicalerts/alert?aid=90355b1b3fdd6068&hl=en&gl=AU&source=wweather

[KFC911]

Go....seriously! I don't take storms lightly, but this one passes NC tonight and will head up and out...done. Our coast is gonna get hammered....

Go....jmho.

edited....if this is indeed gonna be a CAT or even a Tropical Storm at your destination.....STAY home!

Yer call

Stay safe!

[KFC911]

Oh yeah....I've been stuck in Atlanta's airport for 24 hrs...sheer winds on the east coast....somewhere ....

[yellowperil]

The latest is Category 3 hitting maritime canada Saturday mid day. Seems like Friday (tomorrow) is an OK or even nice sunny day so ...... you might get in but could be delayed????????? I don't know what to tell you.

They are saying it WILL hit, not IF it hits. So.....

Keep in touch, let us know. Here's a pic of my grand daughter baking mud pies.

[Tobra]

Are you going surfing? I can think of no other reason for going toward it. Most people would not consider going surfing a reason either, so pretty much no.

[pavulon]

Alabama evacuated yet?

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Nova Scotia is in the northern part of Alabama so I think you'll be OK.

[fastfredracing]

I always travel this time of year towards the coast . Seems like I am always dodging hurricanes .

[Jims5543]

A little guide from a guy who has been through a few.

Cat 1 or Tropical storm? We consider those inconvenient.

Cat 2 or 3 we are concerned but not freaking out.

Cat 4 we freak out

Cat 5 we run for our lives and know nothing will be there when we get back.


I am pessimistic this will remain very strong that far north, I can see it being a TS maybe a Cat 1 if they find one spot in the storm with sustained winds of 75.


I would go, visit with the daughter and enjoy your time.

I honestly thought this thread was about the Storm Chaser that nearly died so he could be in the eye of a Cat 5.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/04/storm-chaser-went-silent-dorian-hit-bahamas-he-re-emerged-with-harrowing-story/?noredirect=on


Disclaimer - I have never been through a Cat 4 or 5 nor do I want to. I am not sure my house would make it through a Cat 4 and know it will be destroyed in a Cat 5. I have been through 2 cat 3's and too many Cat 2's to count.

When we get Cat 1 or Tropical storms we debate even bothering to shutter up.

[Seahawk]

I’d make sure her ship will be in port.

The small boys often get underway even in 1/2’s.

Other than that, your timing looks pretty good.

[Tobra]

I think they pretty much cleared Norfolk out, even the bigguns

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by Tobra

I think they pretty much cleared Norfolk out, even the bigguns

She the NAV on a DDG (I am so proud!) that will be doing a port visit in Nova Scotia - at least I think so.

Is that correct, David?

Shift Colors!

[yellowperil]

[daepp]

Yep - you got it Paul! And she's already in port, but that apparently will be changing...


Thanks for all the input guys. We cancelled our flights, took our losses, but we will have a good part of our tickets credited for another trip - hopefully that time sans hurricane!

I really do appreciate the Pelican help. And also to Dennis (YP) - thanks for news from the source!

[daepp]

Was bummed to cancel and even second guessing myself, then I saw the update:

[maxnine11]

Looks like the eye of the storm is over Halifax right now.

[daepp]

Paging Dennis (Yellow Peril) - how you holding up man?