How do you think repair shops will fare in the future ?

[fastfredracing]

The Pa. State Inspection Auditor , who checks my books every year, made an interesting comment to me .
He thanked me for having my stuff in order, and said that his job was not to harass shops, but to help them . He stated that Pa, needs good inspection stations, and that they are dwindling . Without us, he does not have a job .
He handles appointment , and closure of stations, and told me that he shuttered 24 shops this year, and only opened up 6. He said that that gap seems to get bigger each year .
I'm pretty confident I can safely ride out my time till I retire ( or die ) , but , I wonder if I can hand it off to my kids . It has gotten exponentially harder over the last 10 years .

[drkshdw]

20 years ago you could open a shop with a tool box with some wrenches in it and make a living. Now you need a $10K scan tool just to diagnose a problem. This is all part of the manufacturers plan.

[Cajundaddy]

Ten years from now I expect the automotive industry to look very different than it does today. There will always be a place for good mechanics, but technology is advancing rapidly.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/disruptive-trends-that-will-transform-the-auto-industry/de-de

[fastfredracing]

A 10k diagnostic tool, is only the tip of the iceberg too. That is almost a bare minimum.
I started with a medium sized tool box , a floor jack, 4 stands, and an engine hoist .
I had $1200.00 in my bank account the day I opened my doors .

[Aerkuld]

This is a good question.
Not that I'm in the repair business, but the same thought has crossed my mind. Vehicles seem to be getting more and more software reliant and brand specific as a result. Ford have their system, Chrysler have a different one, Chevrolet is different again etc. Sure, OBDII is universal on a basic fault reporting level, but to diagnose a specific fault I think it will become necessary to have a specific diagnostic system rather than a generic interface. The other problem I see is how reliable modern cars have become, and this is only going to increase if the shift to electric vehicles happens. In the future I think the dealers are going to become the only ones who can work on their vehicles for major systems. Maybe you'll have specialist independents for a specific brand, but this shift toward dealer-only maintenance is deliberate and orchestrated by the manufacturers. Maybe the future of automotive repair will be more in the hands of software engineers who can hack in to the manufacturers systems?
On the other hand, I imagine there will always be a need for shops to do wheel bearing replacements, driveshaft joints, suspension work, etc.

[look 171]

I have the same dream for my kids just like my dad did with me. instead, I waned to be a fooking carpenter. Father was a jeweler and he wanted me to take over his business. I really don't thing mysids are interested in running a construction company. I still have high hopes of them to run the rental and continue to flip homes as a side job eventually getting into it full time with bigger commercial realestate. But that's just a dream for now. Believe me, My wife and I are grooming them for slowly.

I have no clue about inspection stations because that's not a thing out here.

[fastfredracing]

I have been trying to groom my kid as well. He just does not get it at this age, but he could literally , walk into a sweet situation, to where he would NEVER have to answer to the man, and be the controller of his own destiny .
I think he sees me as a dirty auto mechanic , and hack carpenter .
I still make him work . he cleans, does small drywall patches, paints, outlet covers etc. Complains and moans about it the whole time , but my hope is that , when he is 30 and set up really nice for the rest of his life, he will look back and say " thanks for pushing me dad " .

[Math]

i wished my folks encouraged me more to take over the family business as a teen...I'd be better off if I did.
i don't blame them, just saying, you don't necessary see the good you grow up into.

[Bill Douglas]

Only my opinion.

But I think niche market type repair places are the best recipe to stay small and successful. I knew a place that did mechanical repairs and maintenance to anything and everything - what a nightmare.

A while ago I went to a place here in town to collect some 911 parts I bought on an online auction. They had a bunch of MGs and Porsches that they were prepping up for classic racing and doing English Wheel type rust repairs on the MG BGTs. I didn't even know this place existed. They seemed very happy in their work.

[asphaltgambler]

Automotive service shops, especially small independent places face a serious challenge. I believe it is far more than just current economics................….What I know, I'll share.

My brother occupied the service manager's position at a large Hyundai dealer in the early to late 90's. Hyundai was struggling in the American market selling an average of 100,000 units in 1995. While the service and parts side was doing well, sales were flat and not meeting expectations. This was largely due to an overall inferior product line in the previous generation.

To 'reverse' that perception, especially here, they came up with 10 year / 100,000 mile bumper-to-bumper warranty. That was set in motion in '96 with a lot of advertising and support.

By the end of that year that cost them a LOT of money - but tripled sales. Further by then they had a decent product, decent engineering and execution.

My brother and I had a conversation about this just prior to public campaign. I said " Well ……..this is the beginning of the end for COD service as we have known it"...…………………………………….and sure enough it has come to fruition.

The next blow was when BMW launched their new line-up in 2003 where all service items were now 'CBS' or condition based service. So then anything mileage / time related as a reference for servicing like: 30K, 60K, etc. is now out the window. So you really could not sell services to the customer based solely on hard use and / or mileage. BMW had 'upped' their maintenance game (so to speak) and programmed the firmware in the ECM / TCM to get the maximum mileage and time out of service intervals, even to the point of detriment to the car over the long haul.

BMW had to do this, as well as others, to compensate for the shift in consumer buying habits. Consumers now were focusing a lot of what their potential new car would cost them not in just up front price but in maintenance $$ year-over-year. At some point, that information was part of the reveal on the window sticker. Since the innerwebs had all this too, the buyer could easily shop online and see what the real ownership costs would be.

My belief is that the Asian vehicles and manufacturers were driving this, certainly beginning with Hyundai. I mean, Ok, a Lexus back then was very nice but boring. Buying a new 2001 V-8 BMW you just knew it was going to cost you, part of the 'driving experience'.

That cost in 2004 averaged $3200 / year (in the Northern Virginia) area for repairs and maintenance. But people started to get weary of that as the Asian competition evolved and direct 1-one-1 were just as good or better.

Today the consumer mindset has evolved from an acceptance of high COD repairs for most brands to a culture of " If warranty doesn't cover it, I'm trading / selling it".

20-25 years ago the average new car dealership had a 80/20% rule where 80% was COD, remaining was warranty work. NOW it has completely reversed, so where then does that leave indie shops?

Lastly, the fact that even in the last 5 years virtually every manufacturer stamps out a pretty good product, great engineering and good execution for the most part. If it doesn't break or need maintenance for 100K, but for oil changes - where is the opportunity?

I know personally 5 indie shops, all Euro that are struggling or at least not meeting previous years numbers. That expanded into working on just about what ever comes in the door.

I don't see it, the opportunity is gone I was part of the 'downfall' post-recession obliteration of that industry. I'm glad I'm in public service now, been a long road but one that's paid off.

[look 171]

Originally Posted by fastfredracing

I have been trying to groom my kid as well. He just does not get it at this age, but he could literally , walk into a sweet situation, to where he would NEVER have to answer to the man, and be the controller of his own destiny .
I think he sees me as a dirty auto mechanic , and hack carpenter .
I still make him work . he cleans, does small drywall patches, paints, outlet covers etc. Complains and moans about it the whole time , but my hope is that , when he is 30 and set up really nice for the rest of his life, he will look back and say " thanks for pushing me dad " .

Damn great minds think alike. My kids does the same siht. Non stop btiching about work. How old are your?

My hope is to give them a legs up with the rental business and run that on the side so they can concentrate on their careers with positive income already established. This way they can use what they earn from their regular jobs as down payment to buy themselves a home when they want. My real dream is for them to get involve in buying and selling real estate for themselves and create more income property and live off that.

[JackDidley]

Fred you bring up a great point. The days of just turning wrenches are gone. It takes an educated technician to do what you do. There is a demand for the independent shop but not much motivation to operate one. Too much overhead and not enough reward. I do know a couple techs that make great money but not in their own garage.

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by Zeke

More and more boulevard shops are drifting back into less expensive commercial and industrial type locations and serving a select clientele. That could mean a certain customer or limited to type(s) of vehicles (or both ).

If I had a shop I think I would move toward collision work. I know a shop that does a bit of everything and they have a small body and paint repair section that always has an interesting car or 2 being worked on. Great setup as they can do the drive train and suspension all under one roof.

Bingo (2x)

either maintain/hotrod vintage cult cars or do bodywork

EVs are growing and will grow a lot more and maintenance will be even less than a modern IC car today - but they will still get in accidents

[charlesbahn]

Not.

They are going the way of watch repair and TV repair. In my neighborhood there used to be one on every corner for every kind of car repair. Now there are none. The real estate is too valuable, and everything is disposable, requiring little or no skill to replace.

There is still still a limited market for exotics, just like for very high end watches. If you can make a NLA gear or winding stem for a Patek Phillipe watch, you will always make a good living. Same for old auto collectables.

Sorry,

Charles

[look 171]

Originally Posted by charlesbahn

Not.

They are going the way of watch repair and TV repair. In my neighborhood there used to be one on every corner for every kind of car repair. Now there are none. The real estate is too valuable, and everything is disposable, requiring little or no skill to replace.

There is still still a limited market for exotics, just like for very high end watches. If you can make a NLA gear or winding stem for a Patek Phillipe watch, you will always make a good living. Same for old auto collectables.

Sorry,

Charles

Here in socal, its almost impossible to get a permit to operate a auto repair or body shop related business. the city just aren't giving out too many permits. A friend's heavily involved in commercial real estate. He's tries and buy properties that already have been grandfathered in for auto repairs because its guarantee rental. If the shop owner quits, they only have so many months for new owner to take over with new permits. If not, they lose the ability to run a auto business out of that facility. They are being chased out to the edge of town. Same as cabinet shops. There aren't too many small ones around anymore.

The other factor is cost and fees the AQMD requires. Around here anyway

[john walker's workshop]

Damn glad I work on old aircooled 911s.

[look 171]

I am glad there are people like you and the mechanics I go to here in socal. What I noticed is that they are all over 50 years old and many are nearing retirement age. I don't see too many new air cool shops but the few new shops cater to water pumpers. Its the natural progression but what's going to happen to air cool techs in the next 20 years? Who the heck is going to fix my cars?

[DanielDudley]

Kids often follow their own paths, and are happier for it. I stayed with my dad and his business for almost 10 years before I helped him to retire. The world was changing, and the business and the economy were different then when he started his business. We sold everything, and he has been retired for 34 years, and very happy.

I went my own way, and now I see the world changing again. I don't think you can always drag kids along with you, or even expect your business to outlast you. What you can do is raise your kids right, and see them prepared for a future of their own choosing. Even then, it is really up to them what they make of it.

I have friends who work in family businesses that are going strong, yet so many of the vital businesses of my youth have dried up and gone away. It is really hard for me to look at the future and say what automotive repair is going to be like in 30 years. I know however that a person has to have a real affinity for their work, and a desire to be their own boss to make it as an independent. That is something that is in a person, or it isn't.

Some kids need the pressure of being out on their own to find the drive to be successful, and some kids look at what we do and want to do something else entirely. You couldn't stop me from following my passion when I was younger, and as I look back, it was pretty clear that I was going to go my own way from the time I was about three or so. I worked in the corporate world for a while, and all I really learned was that the best laid plans frequently get dropped and all the planning in the world won't prepare you as much as being flexible will.

If you raise your kids, and go about your business, things will work out. If you are a happy and successful person who sees things through, chances are your kids will carry those qualities into the future, even if they don't follow your career path.

[jcommin]

I live in Chicago and I see 2 types of shops

High end - German, Italian, new aand classic cars. Mostly speciality shops I don't see going away. The key is not only eqwuipment but having people skilled at repairing those types of cars.

Low end - Americans keep cars a very long time - Major car repairs start to occur when a vehicle is over 10 years old. Beside any engine/transmission work, repairs will be electronic and parts made of plastic - they don't stand up well over time and temperature environment.

What will reduce the number of repair shops is labor cost and the amount of time it takes to R/R a part. At over $200 a book hour in the city, the simplest repair to a 10 -12 year old car might be more than the car is worth. There was a previous post here: " why does it cost over $1000 to replace a valve cover gasket on a BMW?"


I work for an automotive company that suppliies OE and aftermarket parts. Over the years, the volume of aftermarket parts manufactured shrinks about 3%- 5% / year. The aftermarket business is very profitable but the business is shrinking. Just how many engine gaskets or spark plugs do any of you change?

[cabmandone]

I think the guys who do brakes, alignments, shocks, balljoints.. maintenance item stuff will always have a job. Beyond that it will get or has already gotten too expensive for the average shop to do diagnostics. Kind of a funny thing, I went into a shop last year with an O2 sensor readout on my phone that was created using a Bosch reader with a Bosch ap on my phone. I showed the owner (a guy I personally know) the readout and he says "where did you get that?" I told him what it was and he says "damn I just spent about 10,000 for a reader that does the same thing". I'm sure his does far more than my Bosch but still it was kinda funny. He then went on to help me understand what the readout was showing me and which 02 sensor to replace.