EV article, scary

[Nick Triesch]

I read a world report article online today and it was a bit upsetting. It said by a professor that EV cars will be coming to the world faster than they thought. The article went on to say within 10 most gas cars will be obsolete. And then, Worthless. A bit scary for us classic Porsche guys. Can you imagine $150,000 long hoods being worth nothing?? This guy could be dead wrong and it could take far longer but even Musk says gas cars will soon be history.

[Nick Triesch]

World markets oil based will collapse. The price of oil will go down to $25 a barrel. He said a Tesla S has 18 moving parts while a regular gas engine has 2000 parts. In the near future EV cars will be very cheap and most people will not own a car. We will call a car to
Pick us up. Cars will become self driving.

[island911]

EV's are not better than gas. This is simple.

No need for hysteria.

[Jim Richards]

Nick, do you have a link available for that report? It seems like an aggressive outlook for transition to EVs and phase out of fossil fuels. Perhaps the author/organization has an agenda that colors their findings.

[Sooner or later]

The entire world production of passenger vehicles is about 70 million a year. About 25 million commercial vehicles a year.

About 2 million EV were built in 2019.

There are over a billion cars on the road worldwide

[McLovin]

I agree that the development and spread of EVs is going to be faster than we’ve thought.
I don’t agree that ICE cars will be obsolete in 10 years. That’s economically impossible. There’s millions and millions of people driving around in 10-20 year old $5,000 cars as a matter of economic necessity, and that will still be the case 10 years from now. And those will still be ICE cars.
Which one is “better?” That doesn’t really matter. World governments have decreed EV better, so that’s the end of that debate.

[GH85Carrera]

If they started building electrical power plants right now they could not get enough electricity and a grid to power the cars on the road if all cars are electric in 10 years.

[Nick Triesch]

I’ll try to find it again . I just do not think the changeover will be that fast . Also, right now the average cost of an EV is $56,000. The middle class buys $23,000 Honda cars. The working poor drive $2500 2001 dodge minivans . Millions could not buy an EV let along insurance for one. Many do not have insurance now.

[Jim Richards]

Thanks Nick!

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by McLovin

I agree that the development and spread of EVs is going to be faster than we’ve thought.
I don’t agree that ICE cars will be obsolete in 10 years. That’s economically impossible. There’s millions and millions of people driving around in 10-20 year old $5,000 cars as a matter of economic necessity, and that will still be the case 10 years from now. And those will still be ICE cars.
Which one is “better?” That doesn’t really matter. World governments have decreed EV better, so that’s the end of that debate.

This should be the year that EV sales take off. Every major manufacturer will be bringing out their latest and greatest EV.

[Nick Triesch]

But! Will people want them? Taycan only gets 200 and some on a charge for almost 200g. We shall see.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

But! Will people want them? .

Sure! People who have multi-car garage (not full of crap) and a Range Rover. --IDK why so many Tesla owners have to also have a Range Rover. It's like a uniform in my hood.

OTOH, People who park on the street or have a condo parking garage are not going to have over-night charging.

Perhaps these future EV buyers will also buy trailers with gas generators.

[pmax]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

In the near future EV cars will be very cheap

A running EV under $5K is very cheap indeed.

[Bill Douglas]

But countries that burn coal to get electricity... You might as well have a car with a coal fire in the back to void electricity transmission loss.

[livi]

Bogus.
There is not enough electricity or metal components for the batteries to even replace a fraction of the global vehicle fleet.

[ckelly78z]

50 years from now...possibly, but 10 years from now, I may still be driving the cars I currently own. I'm certainly not going to re-wire my house, and buy EVs, old skool here !

[wdfifteen]

Based on the limited information in the OP I’d say that professor is very wrong.

Edit:
I should have just said, “Here we go again,” and posted the URLs of some of the half dozen other threads here where the same people say the same things.

[beatnavy]

I'll buy an EV for my daily driver as soon as it makes economical sense for me. I don't care if me and every other swinging Johnson on the road is humming along with battery on our way to school, grocery store, Home Depot, etc. But I'll keep my Porsches, esp. the air-cooled. And when I want to hear the flat 6 (or even 4) I'll take the bugger out for a spin.

They're not going to take them away, and they'll never be worthless. They may even go up in value.

[biosurfer1]

Originally Posted by Nick Triesch

I’ll try to find it again . I just do not think the changeover will be that fast . Also, right now the average cost of an EV is $56,000. The middle class buys $23,000 Honda cars. The working poor drive $2500 2001 dodge minivans . Millions could not buy an EV let along insurance for one. Many do not have insurance now.

Why are you comparing new EV prices to 2001 Dodge minivans?

There are hundreds of used EV's on Craigslist right now for less than $5000.

[Bob Kontak]

Originally Posted by biosurfer1

There are hundreds of used EV's on Craigslist right now for less than $5000.

There are many tens of millions driving $2,500 ICE cars to do their thing.