Businesses that might do okay during the Covid-19

[CalPersFatCat]

I don't post often, but I thought that this might make for an interesting thread...

I am in Tampa Tue-Thu of every week running a small standby power company. (I own 20% and manage the salesmen, marketing, insurance, training logistics, certifications, new hire onboarding, generator stand manufacturing, and whatever else I can help with). I fly back and forth from Cincinnati every week.... But not this week, obviously, and maybe not for awhile...

Despite all of this disruption, Monday-Saturday my two salesmen took deposits on nine (9) deals. These are not small purchases. These are $10k-$25K "home improvement" purchases which on any given week average about $13k for each deal... We do about 10 deals per week or so during "normal" times.

We normally close our deals about two to seven months after our initial contact with the customer. These people see/hear our ad or meet us at a home show, schedule an In Home Consultation, get another bid or two, and then after several phone touches inform us that they are ready to move forward.

I'll be blunt. Our demographic is solidly white, MARRIED, 50 plus and retired or semi retired. There of course are outliers, but these are the people who are willing to pay $10K-$15K to have air conditioning during power outages. (our interviews tell us that air conditioning during humid Florida summers is more important than anything else, including refrigerators... powering Well pumps for properties not on city water also ranks higher than refrigerators...)

Other than food runs to the local Domino's, and Kroger, I haven't gone anywhere since I landed at CVG Sunday Night. My family is pretty much on lockdown. My 997S is overdue for the annual oil change and I haven't even scheduled that.

So I've been a hermit all week, but our customer demographic in Florida isn't phased AT ALL . I talk to several callers each day and not one single person has mentioned apprehension about meeting with my sales guys or about having an installation crew at their house.

Maybe next week will be different.

DL

[LWJ]

I had two Zoom meetings last week. I was intrigued. Got an account. Then looked at the stock. A 1500 P/E ratio! Lots of people thing very highly of Zoom.

There are more.

[jcommin]

IL is in "Shelter in Place" except for businesses that are deemed essential. I work for a global Aftermarket and Tier 1 manufacturer of auto parts. It is deemed essential. The Compnay has provived letters for the employess to have in the event they are stopped by law enforcement. This is probably more critical for those working on the off shifts because just about everything is closed at night.

Most if not all of the OEs in the USA and Europe are shut down for at least 2 weeks. The aftermarket however is very busy. This situation is fluid and can change almost immediately.

[Mike80911]

I own a small café and we are allowed to operate for take out and delivery. We have plenty of business but unfortunately many of my employees refuse to come to work so I had to cut my hours in half. I am hardly able to pay the bills with only half the normal income but I do have a loyal following and when we make it through we will gain many customers. I would also guess that there will be many people looking for work so I can hire some new help. I already told the employees that are coming to work that it will not be forgotten and they will be taken care of when this is over.
On a side note we actually sold the café and were supposed to close last week but the buyer is getting cold feet because of all this and has been stalling. Hopefully we can get the del done soon

[masraum]

Originally Posted by LWJ

I had two Zoom meetings last week. I was intrigued. Got an account. Then looked at the stock. A 1500 P/E ratio! Lots of people thing very highly of Zoom.

There are more.

Where I work, the North American IT part of our company switched to Zoom last Monday.

I work for an enormous bank. We are still trucking.

[jhynesrockmtn]

My sister owns a small grocery store on an Island in the San Juan's in WA state. They are busy. She is complaining about customers hoarding items, etc. but I tried to remind her that at least she has a job. My wife is on layoff. My oldest daughter owns a long established restaurant. She and her husband with a few staff are set up for take out but all of her front of house staff were laid off. I'm not sure what will happen with her $6,500/month rent.

[legion]

Government will be just fine.

[Chocaholic]

Our business would be doing well too as our products are in high demand currently...if we had inventory to sell. Euro and Asian suppliers are mostly locked down so very little product is available to sell.

DL...you don’t mention anything about your supply chain and it’s stability. Remember, orders mean nothing if you can’t send an invoice.

[Brando]

Agreed that government and those that service them will be fine.

Wife works for a spa, they are closed until further notice - all therapists and estheticians are furloughed until re-open (whenever that might be).

At my company we are all working from home and most of the clients are still open. Car dealers are running a lot of pick up/drop off for service. Most stores have closed the sales floors, so not sure what their sales staffs are doing.

[CalPersFatCat]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

DL...you don’t mention anything about your supply chain and it’s stability. Remember, orders mean nothing if you can’t send an invoice.

We have about 16 22kw's (80% of what we sell) in stock as well as at least 2 16kw's and 2 of the babies (13kw). And then one each of the 27kw, 38kw, 48kw and 70kw...

On Friday, our generator manufacturer released: "we are here, we are open and
we are operating. Our factories are running, our supply chain is delivering, our
Technical and Customer Support teams are working. Our Sales teams are engaged and we are shipping orders as promised"

Our manufacturer is as cut throat an organization as I have ever dealt with in my life. They have already obtained travel waivers for us from the Dept of Homeland Security. If I have to rent (or buy) a truck and trailer to go fetch the generators weekly, I am prepared to do that.

Our downfall will likely be in permitting/inspecting. The local governments will likely refuse to work unless ordered.

However, in Florida I would expect that they would look the other way as we installed them and put them in service, pending final inspection, as they do during hurricanes when local governments are in chaos.

DL

[dafischer]

Liquor stores will do well.

[cabmandone]

Tractor sales aren't good! But my phone is still ringing and I'm getting emails about the skid steers I sell. Only concern is being able to ship them once they sell. When the dust settles I think the trucking industry is going to go nuts.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Toilet paper manufacturing plants!

[Chocaholic]

When the dust settles on this pandemic, I think those of us in medical capital equipment (imaging and diagnostics) will do well. Every hospital on the planet will have to reassess their readiness for such an event and equip themselves accordingly. Add in a trillion buck download from the Fed and we will be very busy.

[look 171]

It really didn't make much difference to us up until beginning of this week. Things changed fast now that we are on lock down.

Monday morning, I got a phone call from one of my old clients. We were suppose to start with her master bath remodel this Friday. She freaked and said, let wait. Within 30 min, another called about the same thing, lets wait. These are long time clients but I know they will eventually "do it" since they waited or had been on our schedule for us for over a year. Well, there goes 65K.

Our on going project was suppose to finish before Christmas. Now, I am thinking mid to late spring if we are lucky. The roof is completely torn off and I can't get anyone down at the city to inspected it because they are closed. The one inspector left is moving on slow motion. Can't get a permit due to closure so no inspection without permit. Its rained last week, that's why I have not gone to get a permit suddenly, everything closed up now, we are screwed. Over 2000' of rift cut White Oak flooring from the 40s is wet. I covered and covered it. Hoping for the best. Broke the bad news to the owner that its going to be 30k to replace the same floor. They weren't happy but it was their fault to drag their feet on the roof looking for bids from their roofer thinking it will be cheaper, while I waited for his number. I still feel bad for them even through its no fault of mine.

My supply chains have slowed way down. I ordered a few faucets for another job from my show room vendor. Hans Grohe items normally takes a couple days. She said, if you need them, buy them somewhere that have them in stock and do it fast because they are shutting down. We are looking at 5-6 weeks out. Looks like I can't finish this one anytime soon. Another two weeks, I am done. Home owner's pissed, because she's been under construction for over a year. The whole house got torn up and rebuilt from the inside outward. A few faucets hung us up, because she can't decide on the style of the knobs. I am not sure if I can get the painters to go and touch up due to the lock down, but guys in the trades are start to get hungry so they are willing work. People owe me a lot of money but at times like this, without jobs being completely due to stupid things like a couple faucets, I can't collect. If I wait any longer, its going to get harder and harder to draw money outta people. Crazy times.

My biggest fear is people not spending after this virus clears. There's going to be lots of people hording money for sometimes out of fear or the unknown. Can't blame them.

[93nav]

This is also what I think. Either people won't have money, or won't want to spend money. And who knows when the virus clears.

Originally Posted by look 171

My biggest fear is people not spending after this virus clears. There's going to be lots of people hording money for sometimes out of fear or the unknown. Can't blame them.

[93nav]

Are you looking at doing just enough to close up a project so that weather or??? won't cause more damage as things are delayed??

Can you ignore the permits and just do the work? When this is all done, there is going to have been a LOT of seat by the pants flying to get things done no matter how.

Originally Posted by look 171

It really didn't make much difference to us up until beginning of this week. Things changed fast now that we are on lock down.

Monday morning, I got a phone call from one of my old clients. We were suppose to start with her master bath remodel this Friday. She freaked and said, let wait. Within 30 min, another called about the same thing, lets wait. These are long time clients but I know they will eventually "do it" since they waited or had been on our schedule for us for over a year. Well, there goes 65K.

Our on going project was suppose to finish before Christmas. Now, I am thinking mid to late spring if we are lucky. The roof is completely torn off and I can't get anyone down at the city to inspected it because they are closed. The one inspector left is moving on slow motion. Can't get a permit due to closure so no inspection without permit. Its rained last week, that's why I have not gone to get a permit suddenly, everything closed up now, we are screwed. Over 2000' of rift cut White Oak flooring from the 40s is wet. I covered and covered it. Hoping for the best. Broke the bad news to the owner that its going to be 30k to replace the same floor. They weren't happy but it was their fault to drag their feet on the roof looking for bids from their roofer thinking it will be cheaper, while I waited for his number. I still feel bad for them even through its no fault of mine.

My supply chains have slowed way down. I ordered a few faucets for another job from my show room vendor. Hans Grohe items normally takes a couple days. She said, if you need them, buy them somewhere that have them in stock and do it fast because they are shutting down. We are looking at 5-6 weeks out. Looks like I can't finish this one anytime soon. Another two weeks, I am done. Home owner's pissed, because she's been under construction for over a year. The whole house got torn up and rebuilt from the inside outward. A few faucets hung us up, because she can't decide on the style of the knobs. I am not sure if I can get the painters to go and touch up due to the lock down, but guys in the trades are start to get hungry so they are willing work. People owe me a lot of money but at times like this, without jobs being completely due to stupid things like a couple faucets, I can't collect. If I wait any longer, its going to get harder and harder to draw money outta people. Crazy times.

My biggest fear is people not spending after this virus clears. There's going to be lots of people hording money for sometimes out of fear or the unknown. Can't blame them.

[Baz]

Originally Posted by look 171

It really didn't make much difference to us up until beginning of this week. Things changed fast now that we are on lock down.

Monday morning, I got a phone call from one of my old clients. We were suppose to start with her master bath remodel this Friday. She freaked and said, let wait. Within 30 min, another called about the same thing, lets wait. These are long time clients but I know they will eventually "do it" since they waited or had been on our schedule for us for over a year. Well, there goes 65K.

Our on going project was suppose to finish before Christmas. Now, I am thinking mid to late spring if we are lucky. The roof is completely torn off and I can't get anyone down at the city to inspected it because they are closed. The one inspector left is moving on slow motion. Can't get a permit due to closure so no inspection without permit. Its rained last week, that's why I have not gone to get a permit suddenly, everything closed up now, we are screwed. Over 2000' of rift cut White Oak flooring from the 40s is wet. I covered and covered it. Hoping for the best. Broke the bad news to the owner that its going to be 30k to replace the same floor. They weren't happy but it was their fault to drag their feet on the roof looking for bids from their roofer thinking it will be cheaper, while I waited for his number. I still feel bad for them even through its no fault of mine.

My supply chains have slowed way down. I ordered a few faucets for another job from my show room vendor. Hans Grohe items normally takes a couple days. She said, if you need them, buy them somewhere that have them in stock and do it fast because they are shutting down. We are looking at 5-6 weeks out. Looks like I can't finish this one anytime soon. Another two weeks, I am done. Home owner's pissed, because she's been under construction for over a year. The whole house got torn up and rebuilt from the inside outward. A few faucets hung us up, because she can't decide on the style of the knobs. I am not sure if I can get the painters to go and touch up due to the lock down, but guys in the trades are start to get hungry so they are willing work. People owe me a lot of money but at times like this, without jobs being completely due to stupid things like a couple faucets, I can't collect. If I wait any longer, its going to get harder and harder to draw money outta people. Crazy times.

My biggest fear is people not spending after this virus clears. There's going to be lots of people hording money for sometimes out of fear or the unknown. Can't blame them.

Sorry to hear all this, man. California seems much different (so far) than here in Florida.

We have remodels and new construction still going on a brisk pace. When I say "We" I don't mean "Me" - but the area in general. I've had two new homes under construction behind me and a remodel just finishing up next door and now a half block away they took down a house and are building another in it's place. I mean - these are just the projects I can see without leaving my property - but there are others in the area.

For my part, I'm semi-retired from the landscaping/irrigation/low voltage lighting biz but still have a handful of monthly accounts that are just maintenance I'm able to do by myself.

Home Depot yesterday morning was very busy too. I don't know what will happen if we get to a point where government initiates lock downs....hopefully it won't get to that point.

My own opinion is there's a bunch of businesses that are going to be just fine but others will take a hit and some will recover and some won't, depending on the circumstances in their market and industry they are in.

[jcommin]

Originally Posted by 93nav

This is also what I think.
Either people won't have money, or won't want to spend money.

And who knows when the virus clears.

Agree! I think the entire service industry is in for a shift.

[RWebb]

AMZN will own retail - a lot faster than it would have.

Walmart/Target will also grow.