121000 cases? Is this reality?
 

The local news just reported 121,000 US cases of Covid-19. Is this real?

We have 621 here in Alberta (2/3 are in Calgary) and they only reported 548 so who knows if their US numbers are high or low?

Having my closest neighbors 3/4 of a mile away never felt so good...

Looks that way. Still growing daily, too. It’ll be awhile for sure.

Averaging 18,000 new cases for the last 3 days.

There's a peer reviewed article on Pubmed from China showing an 80% false postive rate on Corona virus testing. Interesting.

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https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

https://github.com/datasets/covid-19

^ Don't believe a thing coming out of China right now.

China has reported 3,299 coronavirus-related deaths, with most taking place in Wuhan, the epicentre of the global pandemic. But one funeral home received two shipments of 5,000 urns over the course of two days, according to the Chinese media outlet Caixin.

It’s not clear how many of the urns were filled.

Workers at several funeral parlors declined to provide any details to Bloomberg as to how many urns were waiting to be collected, saying they either did not know or were not authorized to share the number.

Retracted


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

You guys are just at the start of this, here in the UK we're only a little bit ahead of the US on the curve :(

New infections and new deaths start doubling every 2 or 3 days once this thing gets going :(

Some sobering graphs to look at....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111

Stay safe, stay away from people, if you can't do for yourself don't be selfish and do it for other more vulnerable folk

Never been so glad I live in a small village and not a town or city

Forced to retract by the communist regime? Hmmmm that's my first thought. Thanks for posting its been a week since I saw it was not retracted then.

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That article is hard to read, being a translation of a Chinese article. But it seems more a reduction of the false positive rate than a retraction.

Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

Those numbers reflect positive tested results only because the people feel sick. Then there are the untested people laying in there beds and the carriers with no, or very mild symptoms. So you can probably triple that number.

The numbers are basically meaningless. The actual number of people infected is likely orders of magnitude higher. Without massive testing of the population, we know nothing.

My wife, a doctor, thinks she may have had corona back in February. Returned from a trip to India in mid Feb, immediately got flu like symptoms. All the markers of Corona, including a cough that to date has not went away. She also got a case of conjunctivitis at the same time, which we are now reading is a possible symptom. She called and tried to get tested and was denied.

Point is, the disease was likely already endemic in the US 6-8 weeks ago. With no testing, we simply have no clue who much is out there.

This!

and this...

What speaks against this is that deaths would have been starting to crop up in detectable levels then. Even 8 weeks ago, the medical field knew about COVID-19 and would not have just called it "pneumonia", especially if there was travel history.

G

100k deaths are possible in the US. That may not be even as bad as it could be without action.

These models are not very precise because the initial data to fit to is very sparse so far, but it gives an idea of what is possible. This was posted on the "main" CV thread:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I have a science background and understand exponential growth - yet is still shocking to see it happening.

G

Agree. I was on buisness trip late Jan and was not well for 3 weeks. Mild flu symptoms but good now. We just don't know at this point.

And if countless untested Americans have had it, why no talk of immunity? You should now have antibodies to CV. You fought it off and won. If there are millions like that, the disease will have to decline.

Yet, little or nothing published. Thoughts?

It is still a big if.

If it is 3 million that is only 1% of the population and 1% is large enough to slow the spread very much.

We just don't have the testing capability at the current time to make an actual estimate.

It appears we have a blood test, not a swab test, to check for antibodies.

GIGO.....that's what we have for "statistically valid" data points imo...jmho.