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-   -   Sweden Dealing with Covid the Right Way (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1057201-sweden-dealing-covid-right-way.html)

island911 06-03-2020 06:30 PM
Also, if 6' "social distancing" and puny masks work so well then shouldn't the drop off in deaths be MUCH sharper?

Tobra 06-03-2020 06:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsxrken (Post 10886156)
This thread reminds me of two sayings:

“Conservatives are like dolphins, pretty intelligent but don’t bother talking to them”

and

“Liberalism is like a nude beach- everything about it sounds good until you get there”.

At first I was surprised data about a disease could break along party lines, b/c they usually don’t. But this one has a “what should the government do” component of historical proportions, so that’s going to smoke out philosophical differences.

Carry on
Seems a thoughtful person would use the same philosophical principles when making all their decisions. Is it really that surprising that folks with a libertarian bent would behave in a libertarian fashion? I do not believe it is as simple as are they democrat or republican, even if that appears to be the case.

Cajundaddy 06-03-2020 07:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by island911 (Post 10890957)
Nope. The numbers went WAY up after the shut down.

NY had the worst peak LONG after the shutdown. April 17 (1025 deaths that day.)

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1590937815.JPG

Gathering restrictions started March 12th
Stay at Home and businesses closed Order was given March 22
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york
Yes if you only took the time to understand how an epidemic works this would make perfect sense to you. Alas.

There is a significant lag time between initial infection, display of symptoms (5-10 days), progressive disease leading to death (another 10-20 days or longer depending on intervention). Retrace this disease progression back from peak deaths to their point of infection and it was well before lockdown. Exponential spread probably got going around March 1st with max infections just before lockdown.

A full 30 days after lockdown and the death curve is falling rapidly just as one might expect. Shutting down NY greatly reduced the spread even though they were 2 weeks too late.

I do enjoy that you keep trotting out Fergusen as the sole reason everything went to hell. The one epidemiologist who got this completely wrong at every level. It's very cute but it removes all credibility from your posts.

Carry on! SmileWavy

island911 06-03-2020 08:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajundaddy (Post 10891042)
Yes if you only took the time to understand how an epidemic works this would make perfect sense to you. Alas.

There is a significant lag time between initial infection, display of symptoms (5-10 days), progressive disease leading to death (another 10-20 days or longer depending on intervention). Retrace this disease progression back from peak deaths to their point of infection and it was well before lockdown. Exponential spread probably got going around March 1st with max infections just before lockdown.

A full 30 days after lockdown and the death curve is falling rapidly just as one might expect. Shutting down NY greatly reduced the spread even though they were 2 weeks too late.

I do enjoy that you keep trotting out Fergusen as the sole reason everything went to hell. The one epidemiologist who got this completely wrong at every level. It's very cute but it removes all credibility from your posts.

Carry on! SmileWavy
:rolleyes:

I understand your simplistic model
BUT it does not explain this

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1591245331.JPG

RWebb 06-03-2020 09:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by island911 (Post 10890848)
Timing is NOT everything with an exponential spread.

So many other factors are in play.

I get that if you use simplistic math, then sure. But that is not reality. And, as "Professor Shutdown" (Neil Ferguson) found, modeling this outbreak is not so easy. Well, unless you don't care about accuracy. He nailed that then.

Where we are now. Apparently we all get instant immunity to the China Virus when carry a sign virtue signalling pity for Blacks THEN you can assemble closely for hours on end, pulling down your masks to shout at the sky.

Was that in the model?
you don't seem to be familiar with exponential growth -- there are mathematical models for this and CajunD is entirely correct

it is also true that even 1 week would have made a large difference for NYC

island911 06-03-2020 09:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajundaddy (Post 10891042)
Y...

I do enjoy that you keep trotting out Fergusen as the sole reason everything went to hell. The one epidemiologist who got this completely wrong at every level. It's very cute but it removes all credibility from your posts.

Carry on! SmileWavy
Keep trotting out?

I mentioned him twice (and as a failure) and linked to his eating crow on Sweden.

My over-reaching point being that even a pro is a fool to use such a simple model. ...and then there you are with your condescending; Oh, this is so simple here if'n you was smrat enough to understand that 7.5+15 =22.5. :rolleyes:

island911 06-03-2020 09:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RWebb (Post 10891110)
you don't seem to be familiar with exponential growth -- there are mathematical models for this and CajunD is entirely correct

it is also true that even 1 week would have made a large difference for NYC
Right... I'm the one not getting it. :rolleyes:

Your exponential models were right and 2.2 million Americans have died from this.:rolleyes:

rusnak 06-04-2020 12:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gsxrken (Post 10886156)
This thread reminds me of two sayings:

“Conservatives are like dolphins, pretty intelligent but don’t bother talking to them”

and

“Liberalism is like a nude beach- everything about it sounds good until you get there”.

At first I was surprised data about a disease could break along party lines, b/c they usually don’t. But this one has a “what should the government do” component of historical proportions, so that’s going to smoke out philosophical differences.

Carry on
So one looks like Flipper, and the other looks like a beached Moby Dick.

I'm going to steal both of your quotes, LOL.

DanielDudley 06-04-2020 02:23 AM
Are we insulting people who disagree with us?


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