This guy thinks...

[legion]

That we took action based on faulty models that unleashed massive economic pain far outweighing the actual risk the virus presented. Good thing models are never wrong.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ex-nyt-reporter-challenging-the-coronavirus-narrative

As daily life across America is upended by the coronavirus crisis -- with mass business closures plunging the economy into freefall -- one former New York Times reporter is sounding the alarm about what he believes are flawed models dictating the aggressive strategy.

Alex Berenson has been analyzing the data on the crisis on a daily basis for weeks and has come to the conclusion that the strategy of shutting down entire sectors of the economy is based on modeling that doesn’t line up with the realities of the virus.

"The response we have taken has caused enormous societal devastation, I don't think that's too strong a word," he told Fox News in an interview Thursday.
...
Now he’s turned to challenging the narratives on the response to the coronavirus. What Berenson is promoting isn’t coronavirus denialism, or conspiracy theories about plots to curb liberties. Instead what Berenson is claiming is simple: the models guiding the response were wrong and that it is becoming clearer by the day.
...
"In February I was worried about the virus. By mid-March I was more scared about the economy. But now I’m starting to get genuinely nervous," he tweeted this week. "This isn’t complicated. The models don’t work. The hospitals are empty. WHY ARE WE STILL TALKING ABOUT INDEFINITE LOCKDOWNS?"

Hospitals, of course, are not empty in places like hard-hit New York City, and tales are widespread of overburdened doctors and emergency rooms. Berenson acknowledged as much in the interview Thursday.

Concerns that this virus is significantly more contagious and deadly than any ordinary flu strain are what's driving the current government approach, in America and around the world. Perhaps due in part to more testing, America reports the highest number of cases in the world right now, with more than 430,000 cases and nearly 15,000 deaths. Symptoms vary widely, with some patients reporting only minor discomfort yet others dealing with crushing physical pain and struggling to breathe, forced to go on ventilators.
...
Recently he’s been focusing on discrepancies within the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model. That model has come under renewed scrutiny as it has revised its metrics multiple times. It once predicted more than 90,000 deaths by August but recently issued a new estimate that has the figure closer to 60,000. Government officials say it's a model that's moving with what the country is doing.
...
Dr. Anthony Fauci said that the indicators are that social distancing efforts are working: "Because remember, what you do with data will always outstrip a model. You redo your models, depending upon your data, and our data is telling us that mitigation is working."

But Berenson argues that those models have social distancing and other measures baked into them. As for further proof, he says that outside of places like New York there has not been a national health crisis that was predicted -- nor are there signs that the level of lockdown in various states has made a difference.

“Aside from New York, nationally there’s been no health system crisis. In fact, to be truly correct there has been a health system crisis, but the crisis is that the hospitals are empty,” he said. “This is true in Florida where the lockdown was late, this is true in South Carolina where the lockdown was early, it's true in Oklahoma where there is no statewide lockdown. There doesn't seem to be any correlation between the lockdown and whether or not the epidemic has spread wide and fast.”

He has also argued, in lengthy Twitter threads, that the drop in cases seen in various states has come before lockdowns would have had an impact -- since it takes a few weeks for social distancing measures to take effect due to the window between infection and symptoms.

Berenson blames the models for a response that has effectively shut down large sectors of the economy and is causing significant financial harm to Americans. On Thursday it was announced that the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits swelled to 6.6 million last week, surging for the third consecutive week. Congress has sought to alleviate the pain by boosting those jobless benefits.
...
Berenson says the correct response in the initial days of the crisis would not have been to do nothing, but instead to adopt a more measured and targeted approach.

“There was incredible pressure to do something ... so these lockdowns all cascaded, every governor tried to outdo the next. And no one stopped and said ‘OK what about Japan, they don't seem to have a terrible epidemic, they wear masks, maybe we should wear masks,” he said.

He said other measures such as protecting individuals particularly at risk, and even things such as banning large gatherings such as concerts and sporting events could have been appropriate. But now he fears it may be too late for officials to say they overreacted.

“Now we’re in a bad spot because there’s clearly a dangerous political dynamic right now -- the economy is in freefall, a lot of people are hurting. If we acknowledge what is clearly happening ... the people who made these decisions, I think there’s going to be a lot of anger at them, so they don't want to acknowledge it, so they say 'oh it's the lockdown that saved us,'” he says.

[Sooner or later]

He talks about no Okla statewide lockdown. OKC and Tulsa have initiated their own lockdown along with most other cities.

My area, Lawton, has probably as severe a lockdown as anybody in the US. Anybody have anything tougher in place?

Curfew from 11 PM until 5 PM.
Walmart and all others general merchandise shut down for in store shopping.
Max of 100 allowed in Walmart or other similar sized stores. One customer per 500 sq feet in smaller stores.
Sneeze guards required between customer and employee where transactions take place.
One way aisle travel with no passing allowed.
Sanitizers required at all cash registers.
Restaurants carry out only.
Mandatory mask.
No more then 6 in a social gathering other than a funeral where 10 are allowed.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

He talks about no Okla statewide lockdown. OKC and Tulsa have initiated their own lockdown along with most other cities.

My area, Lawton, has probably as severe a lockdown as anybody in the US. Anybody have anything tougher in place?

Curfew from 11 PM until 5 PM.
Walmart and all others general merchandise shut down for in store shopping.
Max of 100 allowed in Walmart or other similar sized stores. One customer per 500 sq feet in smaller stores.
Sneeze guards required between customer and employee where transactions take place.
One way aisle travel with no passing allowed.
Sanitizers required at all cash registers.
Restaurants carry out only.
Mandatory mask.
No more then 6 in a social gathering other than a funeral where 10 are allowed.

People like Legion do not take it seriously..where draconian measures have to be implemented for their own good.

[McLovin]

Wow, some common sense.
Someone should lock that guy up.

[McLovin]

This will result in the biggest permanent expansion of government and the largest redistribution of wealth this country and the world has ever seen.

And many people and politicians are loving it.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by McLovin

Wow, some common sense.
Someone should lock that guy up.

He acts like Okla is wide open. Which is wrong. He points to other states not having a crisis when they either implemented social gathering limitations early or are a couple of weeks behind NY on the curve.

He is far too early in making his assumptions.

[McLovin]

“He is far too early in making his assumptions”

/sarcasm/ - Well that would be a first during this fiasco.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by McLovin

This will result in the biggest permanent expansion of government and the largest redistribution of wealth this country and the world has ever seen.

And many people and politicians are loving it.

Really?

Bernie won and he doesn't even know it...

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-politics-religion/1055758-public-subsistence-mode.html
from 3/23/20
QUASI NATIONALIZATION

Today the Black Swan of the CV has touched off the latent fear which has created a panic. What I could not know before was what would happen after the shyte hit the fan. The wall had to be breached before one could get a good idea of what direction the future holds. Nobody right now is worried about the unintended ramification of all the money they are printing and borrowing. The situation is critical and civil order has to maintained in society so the sky is the limit to ally fear and panic about what the economic future holds for people. things are essentially being put on hold, no foreclosures, no evictions, deferred mortgage and credit card payments.

Once the crisis has subsided the hangover will begin. essentially the economy will pick up substantially from being moribund but it is going to be sluggish as it will be shackled to a ball and chain of debt and debased currency. What one can see is a quasi Nationalization of assets across not only the US but world. Which may be accomplished with the FED buying corporate Equities and Bonds and or bailing them out (the banks in particular as the car loan and credit card debt defaults). The rational is that you can not displace most of the population of the US sending them into abject poverty where they do not know where their next meal is going to come from. This would cause massive civil unrest, Jobs are not going to return very quickly if at all, it will take time to pick up and get moving again. Most of the American people are going to be on some kind of public assistance, with cash payments, food stamps, health care, rent and or mortgage assistance. This will all probably transpire over the next year or two..by 2022 as I have long surmised? The model here is what happened to the former Soviet Union when it imploded in 1990. We shall see?

Does that say it clearly enough for ya all...

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by McLovin

“He is far too early in making his assumptions”

/sarcasm/ - Well that would be a first during this fiasco.

He left out points that didn't fit his belief.

Oklahoma, no statewide lockdown. That does not tell the true story.

Name me a city within the US that has tighter lockdown standards than my town. There won't be many.

He talks about empty hospitals. What would those hospitals look like with no restrictions in place?

He told one side of the story. His side.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

He left out points that didn't fit his belief.

He told one side of the story. His side.

/sarcasm/ Well that would be a first during this fiasco.

[Sooner or later]

Do you have anything to support your maybe 5%?

[Chocaholic]

Monday morning Quarterback. And it's only Sunday afternoon. Japan had not formally locked down but people quarantined themselves quite reliably and followed guidance to minimize the spread. Too many of his "facts" are inaccurate.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by McLovin

/sarcasm/ Well that would be a first during this fiasco.

I have beat on the other side. 30x or 50x more deadly than the flu being an easy one.

He is as biased in one direction as many others have been in the other.

[Neilk]

So on Twitter Alex Berenson wrote the following on March 29th (link)

1/ Japan, Japan. Japan is THE puzzle in all of this. It has avoided the steps Western health experts demand - no lockdown, few tests. It has an aged population, huge cities, close air links to China. It should have been overrun a month ago. Instead, NO outbreak. Why?

Today there is an article on Forbes saying

Topline: In its largest daily increase of coronavirus infections, emerging hot spot Tokyo recorded 144 new cases on Tuesday, bringing the capital city’s total up to more than 1,300 a day after Japan declared a state of emergency and enacted a one-month shutdown in Tokyo and six other areas.

So you may want to take his words with a grain of salt. Remember, if the lock down succeeds in stemming the infection, then everyone will say we overreacted, but that is precisely why the death counts didn't sky rocket. Let see what happens in Sweden.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

Monday morning Quarterback. And it's only Sunday afternoon. Japan had not formally locked down but people quarantined themselves quite reliably and followed guidance to minimize the spread. Too many of his "facts" are inaccurate.

Correct

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by tabs

Really?

Bernie won and he doesn't even know it...

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-politics-religion/1055758-public-subsistence-mode.html
from 3/23/20
QUASI NATIONALIZATION

Today the Black Swan of the CV has touched off the latent fear which has created a panic. What I could not know before was what would happen after the shyte hit the fan. The wall had to be breached before one could get a good idea of what direction the future holds. Nobody right now is worried about the unintended ramification of all the money they are printing and borrowing. The situation is critical and civil order has to maintained in society so the sky is the limit to ally fear and panic about what the economic future holds for people. things are essentially being put on hold, no foreclosures, no evictions, deferred mortgage and credit card payments.

Once the crisis has subsided the hangover will begin. essentially the economy will pick up substantially from being moribund but it is going to be sluggish as it will be shackled to a ball and chain of debt and debased currency. What one can see is a quasi Nationalization of assets across not only the US but world. Which may be accomplished with the FED buying corporate Equities and Bonds and or bailing them out (the banks in particular as the car loan and credit card debt defaults). The rational is that you can not displace most of the population of the US sending them into abject poverty where they do not know where their next meal is going to come from. This would cause massive civil unrest, Jobs are not going to return very quickly if at all, it will take time to pick up and get moving again. Most of the American people are going to be on some kind of public assistance, with cash payments, food stamps, health care, rent and or mortgage assistance. This will all probably transpire over the next year or two..by 2022 as I have long surmised? The model here is what happened to the former Soviet Union when it imploded in 1990. We shall see?

Does that say it clearly enough for ya all...

All true. Although only maybe 5% of the population would agree with you.

This is the revolution many wanted.

“The situation is critical and civil order has to maintained in society so the sky is the limit to ally fear and panic about what the economic future holds for people. things are essentially being put on hold, no foreclosures, no evictions, deferred mortgage and credit card payments.”

That’s just one example of a huge event that 95% of people don’t care about.

It involves the “temporary” suspension of constitutional rights, in the name of the “public good.” It results in a massive redistribution of wealth. It’s a huge moral hazard. It puts big tears in our social fabric.

And that’s just a small piece.

[Sooner or later]

You are big on facts.

Show me data to back up your "maybe 5%".

[Sooner or later]

3/25

[wdfifteen]

A “former NY Times reporter” is skeptical - AND he claims to have 20-20 hindsight. The dude is brilliant.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Do you have anything to support your maybe 5%?

Absolutely!