Real CV infection rates: THE BEST DATA YET: ICELAND

[Geneman]

This is the absolute best data yet. Throw everything else out…. Iceland has the best genetic testing system in the world . (for instance 98% of the population. Has had their full genome sequenced!! ( BTW. deCODE Inc. a private CO. sold these genetic results to Roche! imagine that...one whole countries genetics owned by a private co. but i digress)..

In completely random sample testing of 10% of their total population: The infection rate is 50% with most having no symptoms. But they ARE shedding infectious virus!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8210401/Iceland-finds-half-population-asymptomatic-infected-Covid-19.html


This is exactly why its going to be so hard to use screening and isolation to flatten the curve. just too many occult infections.

[unclebilly]

I dunno. The Alberta government has done a pretty terrific job too. Note that we have tested 72,000 people with a population of only 4.41 million.

You can view every case and see number of cases by neighborhood in the cities.

https://covid19stats.alberta.ca/

[Sooner or later]

There testing is not completely random. They test everyone showing symptoms and those of high risk. The rest of the testing was done on folks that volunteered. Who knows why.

Out of 35,000 tests they have found 1689 positive tests. About 5,000/million or about .5% of the population positive. Something under half of that .5% showed no symptoms.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Geneman

This is the absolute best data yet. Throw everything else out…. Iceland has the best genetic testing system in the world . (for instance 98% of the population. Has had their full genome sequenced!! ( BTW. deCODE Inc. a private CO. sold these genetic results to Roche! imagine that...one whole countries genetics owned by a private co. but i digress)..

In completely random sample testing of 10% of their total population: The infection rate is 50% with most having no symptoms. But they ARE shedding infectious virus!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8210401/Iceland-finds-half-population-asymptomatic-infected-Covid-19.html


This is exactly why its going to be so hard to use screening and isolation to flatten the curve. just too many occult infections.

Hold on...

Per the article "They also discovered that 1,600 people have been infected with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak."
and
"10 per cent of the 364,413 population swabbed"

So let's linearly extrapolate that 1600 10x So say 16k have it in a population of 364k

That makes for 4.3% of their population having the rona. (not 50%)

The Headline does what headlines mean to do; Mislead.

The real story is that 50% of those who have it don't know it.

Thanks for the post and link anyway. There is some good info there.

edit: rough (first order) math on my part, I know. (4.3% is higher than refined math)

[island911]

One guy in the comment section there:

Of those who have tested positive,
50% are asymptomatic,
40% suffer mild symptoms and can be treated at home,
7% will require hospitalisation and
3% will die. Of the 3% who will die,
80% are 70+ years old with one or more comorbidities.

So in short. the death rate for those under 70 years old and without any comorbidities, is 0.6%.
What will be the death rate resulting from the destruction of the economy?

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by island911

Hold on...

Per the article "They also discovered that 1,600 people have been infected with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak."
and
"10 per cent of the 364,413 population swabbed"

So let's linearly extrapolate that 1600 10x So say 16k have it in a population of 364k

That makes for 4.3% of their population having the rona. (not 50%)

The Headline does what headlines mean to do; Mislead.

The real story is that 50% of those who have it don't know it.

Thanks for the post and link anyway. There is some good info there.

edit: rough (first order) math on my part, I know. (4.3% is higher than refined math)

It is not 5%. Currently it is 5000 cases per million which is .5%.

Edit, I see where you got the 5%.

[Sooner or later]

Island, your 5% is high because a lot of the testing wasn't random. They test all those with symptoms.

When the first data came out they were at 5% of the pop tested. 18,000 tests. Half of that 9,000 was "ramdom", people wanting the test for some reason. This article doesn't go into that part of the newer test data.

The article written today was terribly written.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

...

The article written today was terribly written.

That was my larger point.

and using even very generous simple math we can project to only 4.3%, not 50%.

[Sooner or later]

Also, from the article.

"They also discovered that 1,600 people have been infected with Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak. Of these cases, there were only seven deaths, indicating a fatality rate of just 0.004 per cent, which is significantly lower than other countries, including the UK. "

7 deaths within 1,600 cases is not .004%. It is a almost .44%

[Sooner or later]

This is the article from a week ago that talked about the data up till that time.

As of Tuesday, Iceland had tested more than 17,900 people for the virus -- nearly 5% of its population. And while its National University Hospital tests people who are high-risk or show symptoms, nearly half of Iceland's tests have been conducted by biopharma company deCODE Genetics, focusing on the the wider population.

Some of the revelations have been stark. Although fewer than 1% of the (deCODE) tests came back positive for the virus, the company's founder Dr. Kári Stefánsson told CNN that around 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, confirming multiple studies that show that asymptomatic, or mildly symptomatic, people have played an important role in spreading the virus.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html