Comparing flu vs CV19 deaths - apples to oranges

[masraum]

I haven't seen this and couldn't find it in a search.

This is interesting. I added the bold to the text below.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

The former are actual numbers; the latter are inflated statistical estimates



In late February, when the stock market was beginning to fall over coronavirus fears, President Donald Trump held a briefing at the White House to reassure people that there was little chance of the virus causing significant disruption in the United States.

“I want you to understand something that shocked me when I saw it,” he said. “The flu, in our country, kills from 25,000 people to 69,000 people a year. That was shocking to me.”

His point was to suggest that the coronavirus was no worse than the flu, whose toll of deaths most of us apparently barely noticed.

In early April, as social distancing measures began to succeed in flattening the curve in some parts of the country, an influential forecasting model revised the number of American deaths from coronavirus that it was projecting by summer downward to 60,400, and some people again began making comparisons to the flu, arguing that, if this will ultimately be no worse than a bad flu season, we should open the country up for business again. (On April 22, the model’s forecast rose to 67,641 deaths.)

But these arguments, like the president’s comments, are based on a flawed understanding of how flu deaths are counted, which may leave us with a distorted view of how coronavirus compares with it.

When reports about the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 began circulating earlier this year and questions were being raised about how the illness it causes, COVID-19, compared to the flu, it occurred to me that, in four years of emergency medicine residency and over three and a half years as an attending physician, I had almost never seen anyone die of the flu. I could only remember one tragic pediatric case.

Based on the CDC numbers though, I should have seen many, many more. In 2018, over 46,000 Americans died from opioid overdoses. Over 36,500 died in traffic accidents. Nearly 40,000 died from gun violence. I see those deaths all the time. Was I alone in noticing this discrepancy?

I decided to call colleagues around the country who work in other emergency departments and in intensive care units to ask a simple question: how many patients could they remember dying from the flu? Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single one over their careers. Some said they recalled a few. All of them seemed to be having the same light bulb moment I had already experienced: For too long, we have blindly accepted a statistic that does not match our clinical experience.

The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.

There is some logic behind the CDC’s methods. There are, of course, some flu deaths that are missed, because not everyone who contracts the flu gets a flu test. But there are little data to support the CDC’s assumption that the number of people who die of flu each year is on average six times greater than the number of flu deaths that are actually confirmed. In fact, in the fine print, the CDC’s flu numbers also include pneumonia deaths.

The CDC should immediately change how it reports flu deaths. While in the past it was justifiable to err on the side of substantially overestimating flu deaths, in order to encourage vaccination and good hygiene, at this point the CDC’s reporting about flu deaths is dangerously misleading the public and even public officials about the comparison between these two viruses. If we incorrectly conclude that COVID-19 is “just another flu,” we may retreat from strategies that appear to be working in minimizing the speed of spread of the virus.

The question remains. Can we accurately compare the toll of the flu to the toll of the coronavirus pandemic?

To do this, we have to compare counted deaths to counted deaths, not counted deaths to wildly inflated statistical estimates. If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse.

From this perspective, the data on coronavirus and flu actually match—rather than flying in the face of—our lived reality in the coronavirus pandemic: hospitals in hot spots stretched to their limits and, in New York City in particular, so many dead that the bodies are stacked in refrigerator trucks. We have never seen such conditions.

In that briefing in late February, Trump downplayed the likelihood that the virus would spread significantly in the United States and that extreme measures like closing schools would need to be taken, saying that “we have it so well under control” and returning again to the flu.

“Sixty-nine thousand people die every year—from 26 to 69—every year from the flu,” he said. “Now, think of that. It’s incredible.”

We now know that Trump was disastrously wrong about the threat that the coronavirus posed to the United States. But his take that the cited numbers of flu deaths were incredible? On that, he was spot-on.

The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views and opinions of Brigham and Women’s Hospital or Harvard Medical School.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Scientific American.

[tabs]

So what is the point of this??? Dead is dead...

People do not die from CV19...they get complications like Pneumonia and kick off for that dirt nap in the bone orchard.

It seems that CV uses the body's immune system to exacerbate already existing conditions. The Immune system says hey something is wrong here...and starts to go after whatever already exists thinking it is the cause of the maledy.. it has never seen CV before so it misses it completely..going for the known quantity.

Everything has a process or mechanism..you just have to figure it out..

[Chocaholic]

Because there are idiots that compare it to auto accidents and heart attacks.

[wilnj]

This chart shows total deaths (all causes) in NJ for the month of April over the last 6 years.

[HardDrive]

Sorry. You people who claim the lock down was not necessary, I simply disagree.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by wilnj

This chart shows total deaths (all causes) in NJ for the month of April over the last 6 years.

I can't get 2019 or 2020 data, but the prior years April numbers are close, if not the same, as my CDC database. Those numbers are composed of all deaths other than terrorist acts. Death by tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcano would be included.

2018 - 6181
2017 - 6283
2016 - 6080
2015 - 5975

[RWebb]

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

[masraum]

Originally Posted by tabs

So what is the point of this??? Dead is dead...

Because there are people saying "this is no big deal. We should just be going about our business as if nothing were happening. Look, this is kills far fewer people than the flu, and we don't do anything special for the flu every year."

[wilnj]

Originally Posted by masraum

Because there are people saying "this is no big deal. We should just be going about our business as if nothing were happening. Look, this is kills far fewer people than the flu, and we don't do anything special for the flu every year."

It think it requires a closer look. We’re 4 months in and know a lot more than we did in February. Certain areas aren’t ready, other places weren’t severely impacted.

I think we need to get those lightly impacted areas back to work now so that if this does circle back on us in the fall, we’re as financially stable as we can be.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[masraum]

Originally Posted by wilnj

It think it requires a closer look. We’re 4 months in and know a lot more than we did in February. Certain areas aren’t ready, other places weren’t severely impacted.

I think we need to get those lightly impacted areas back to work now so that if this does circle back on us in the fall, we’re as financially stable as we can be.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, with a thorough understanding of the virus and the way it works, and a comprehensive understanding of geographic demographics, and the time to plan by demographics, then yes, it probably should have been done differently.

Unfortunately, 1 We didn't know much about how the Virus actually works and 2 We didn't have a ton of time to try to plan based on population density, culture, environment, etc....

Maybe in the aftermath, we should get the various govt agencies from fed to local to spend a bunch of time figuring out the demographics, pop density, culture, etc... and then design area specific measures for future pandemics and/or emergencies.

But in an unexpected, poorly understood emergency, I'm not sure expecting a super granular reaction is realistic.

I do agree with you and hope that "we" will learn from this and if something like this happens again, will have a better reaction.

[rusnak]

Originally Posted by wilnj

It think it requires a closer look. We’re 4 months in and know a lot more than we did in February. Certain areas aren’t ready, other places weren’t severely impacted.

I think we need to get those lightly impacted areas back to work now so that if this does circle back on us in the fall, we’re as financially stable as we can be.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Totally agree. If the re-opening is dragged out, there may be dire options if some parts of the country are hit a second time. Furthermore, all of the stats point to not just differing rates of spread, that is old news, but differing rates of fatalities. Time to calibrate and re-set.

The shelter in place orders were a catch-all to buy time. If anyone thinks the shelter in place order will PREVENT YOU FROM EXPOSURE, then I'm sorry you are wrong.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by masraum

Yes, with a thorough understanding of the virus and the way it works, and a comprehensive understanding of geographic demographics, and the time to plan by demographics, then yes, it probably should have been done differently.

Unfortunately, 1 We didn't know much about how the Virus actually works and 2 We didn't have a ton of time to try to plan based on population density, culture, environment, etc....

Maybe in the aftermath, we should get the various govt agencies from fed to local to spend a bunch of time figuring out the demographics, pop density, culture, etc... and then design area specific measures for future pandemics and/or emergencies.

But in an unexpected, poorly understood emergency, I'm not sure expecting a super granular reaction is realistic.

I do agree with you and hope that "we" will learn from this and if something like this happens again, will have a better reaction.

There were at least two groups or task forces doing exactly what you describe, (preparing for the next pandemic), that were disbanded under the current administration.

But to your other point, you are absolutely correct. I’ve never known anyone who has died from the flu in my life and no one I know does. Hospitals have never been overwhelmed w flu patients. China has never had to build a massive hospital in one week for flu patients.

All you have to do is count the excessive or excess deaths in NYC last month to any other April ever and there is your answer. The flu happens every year, it’s a human virus that has been around for hundreds of years that our bodies have a built-up, natural immunity to. No comparison whatsoever to Covid-19.

[legion]

Originally Posted by HardDrive

Sorry. You people who claim the lock down was not necessary, I simply disagree.

Doesn't matter if it was "necessary" or not (by whatever standard), it is unconstitutional.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by legion

Doesn't matter if it was "necessary" or not (by whatever standard), it is unconstitutional.

What's your suggestion for what should have been done?

[island911]

Originally Posted by HardDrive

Sorry. You people who claim the lock down was not necessary, I simply disagree.

What about claiming that the lock down wasn't done any better than Sweden? More costly, for sure, but when other vectors exist...

Plenty of countries had lock downs AND MUCH worse death rates than Sweden.



So... how is that possible?

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by island911

What about claiming that the lock down wasn't done any better than Sweden? More costly, for sure, but when other vectors exist...

Plenty of countries had lock downs AND MUCH worse death rates than Sweden.



So... how is that possible.

Ten million pop that does as told with a high percentqge that live alone.

Death per million currently 40% higher than the US. 7rh highest deaths per million in world (excluding 3 teeny tiny countries.

[Sooner or later]

Why is "high population density" Gallup, NM blowing up? A 1000 cases within a 70,000 population. 19 deaths in April when they usually have a total of 48 deaths for all reasons in the month

Do you actually think the Swedish model should be used in much of the US?

[rusnak]

The link to the article about Gallup, NM is no worky.

When you have a hub in the middle of nowhere, obviously people congregate there from a larger area.

The question is not so much whether the shelter in place should have been ordered, but rather should it be lifted, modified, or kept entirely as is.

[island911]

NM... weird.

France implemented some hard shut down measure. They got hit hard.

Ireland. Is that a chart popping population density? They are doing about the same as Sweden.
Anyway, the numbers are there.

The bigger player is more likely who lands - seems like certain locations got virus carpet bombs.

Age is of course a huge factor. I'm going to guess that Ethiopia doesn't have stellar social distancing programs in place. But they also likely don't have a lot of people over 50.

Point is, the social distancing(which has been shoved down our media throats) doesn't explain the huge disparities in death rate.

We still don't have a clear picture on when people got infection - only that a whole lot of people have had this and didn't know.

It's tough to correlate shutdown efforts to infections, when we don't know that timing.

One last thought; if our shut down is so damn good, and this thing has a 2 week gestation... then how is it, that months latter, this virus is not extinct?

Is our shut down so good because it's so expensive?

Is it so effective because the group-think has the concept-reinforcing propaganda ad's? People do like to sound smart, once they have a concept drilled into their collective heads. ---so weird how, for many, there is but one variable (how hard you stay home).

[Purrybonker]

I dunno USA - why not look at Canada as your control to how well you're handling this thing?

I mean Canada and US are on the same page in so many ways, they are right next door and share the same breathable airspace and share the same potbellied truck drivers sharing the same truck stop hookers (sarcasm that).

Covid stats Canada - 55,000 cases 3,300 deaths.

Covid stats US - 1,131,492 cases 65,000 deaths.

Canada population vs USA? 37 million vs 328 million.

Canada has been very inconsistent from province to province (based on the politics of the local regime) but has generally been much more aggressive than the US in implementing societal controls.

I think that's the thing that scares me the most - our personal well being has never been more in the hands of our government since the dawn of the first modernity.