A serious question on the stock market situation.

[flatbutt]

I don't have millions in the market but most of my retirement money is in mutual funds and bonds and is well diversified. I know that you don't really lose money unless you sell at a loss.

But I'm 68 years old. If this slide continues I may never recover the value I'm losing. So is there a point at which you must say "enough" and take the loss?

Yes, now I'm getting worried.

[cabmandone]

The key: Don't make decisions based on emotions. Look at what is happening. Look at why it's happening. Then make an informed decision. Do you think it's not going to come back once the fear of the virus dissipates? Do you see any glaring weaknesses in the economy that would indicate a prolonged downturn?

I get that we're at two completely different points in life but rest assured, things will be fine.

FWIW, you can't be at a "loss" unless your funds are below where they were in 2017 when the market took off. You've lost value over the last few weeks but you haven't lost in general. You should still be ahead of the game, right?

[Crowbob]

It mostly depends on how long you think you’re gonna live. 88 years is not unusual for somebody with no chronic health problems. So for someone like that, taking a monthly distribution now will still earn some money over the next 20 years.

If you’re sick, we’ll then go from there.

[GH85Carrera]

For day traders is has to be crazy.

My investments are all in for the long run. I have no doubt once the silly hysteria about Covid-19 is over people will return to making money, go back to work, and the market will soar.

The crazy low oil prices will really hurt in oil producing areas like Oklahoma and Texas, but we have been through the crisis before. We will get through it again.

[flatbutt]

Originally Posted by cabmando

The key: Don't make decisions based on emotions. Look at what is happening. Look at why it's happening. Then make an informed decision. Do you think it's not going to come back once the fear of the virus dissipates? Do you see any glaring weaknesses in the economy that would indicate a prolonged downturn?

I get that we're at two completely different points in life but rest assured, things will be fine.

FWIW, you can't be at a "loss" unless your funds are below where they were in 2017 when the market took off. You've lost value over the last few weeks but you haven't lost in general. You should still be ahead of the game, right?

This is the point that gives me a measure of comfort. I've been in the market since 2010 but put my retirement fund in there in 2015 so yeah I'm still ahead. But I confess to getting nervous

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by flatbutt

This is the point that gives me a measure of comfort. I've been in the market since 2010 but put my retirement fund in there in 2015 so yeah I'm still ahead. But I confess to getting nervous

I get what you're saying. I'm sure it's hard not to get nervous when you're 68 and watching your retirement investments drop. Like I said though, look at what's going on and why they're dropping. It's not like the economy was in any real trouble before all of this started. A virus causing breaks in the supply chain, reduced travel, less dining out... etc... Once the fear subsides the market will come back. As Wayne pointed out, some sectors will be hit harder but the overall economy will be okay IMO.

[beepbeep]

I "diversified" by moving 50% of my investable pension funds into short term interest rate fund. I will probably miss the upswing but I also omitted last weeks downturn.
My motto is "the nearer the pension you come the less risk you should have in your portfolio..."

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by flatbutt

I don't have millions in the market but most of my retirement money is in mutual funds and bonds and is well diversified. I know that you don't really lose money unless you sell at a loss.

But I'm 68 years old. If this slide continues I may never recover the value I'm losing. So is there a point at which you must say "enough" and take the loss?

Yes, now I'm getting worried.

I played the dips for a while, did really good on some days and not so much on others.
I lost some but nowhere near as much as the indexes. I'm down from the peak but only down a little over 1% YTD. Basically back to where i was around Christmas and I'm safe.

I chickened out and moved EVERYTHING into money market/treasury funds last week. That saved me a whole bunch so far. The only thing I stand to lose is opportunity when it gets better and I thing we've got plenty of time for that.

But if yer still in do you get out now? i dunno. Couple days ago I called the bottom at 20,000 DJIA, now I don't know if that's real. Too much hysteria, too much panic, too much brainwashing. I 'spect it to drop more.

Iffn I was 68 years old and retired I'd yank everything out of equities yesterday if not sooner. I would not buy bonds, they're over-bought and will drop when things recover and I'm not good enough to time that just right.

But take all that with a grain of salt.
When it comes to predicting stocks I'm wrong more often than right.

[sammyg2]

Like I saw in a movie once, it's not panic if you're the first one out the door.
Panic is if you're the last one.

Most advisers would say pick a reasonable risk level and ride it out for the long run. Passive investing. And ordinarily I would think that';s good advice.
But i wonder what they are doing with their money now. Are the giant financial institutions riding it all the way to the bottom? Heck no.

Having people ride it down makes their jobs easier and gives them opportunity to turn our losses into their gains.

[cabmandone]

Here. Some good news! Something painfully hard to find unless you're looking.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/u-s-jobless-claims-dip-in-early-march-no-sign-yet-of-coronavirus-layoffs/ar-BB115Y6M?ocid=msedgdhp

From last week

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-national-employment-report-private-131500491.html

[flatbutt]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

I played the dips for a while, did really good on some days and not so much on others.
I lost some but nowhere near as much as the indexes. I'm down from the peak but only down a little over 1% YTD. Basically back to where i was around Christmas and I'm safe.

I chickened out and moved EVERYTHING into money market/treasury funds last week. That saved me a whole bunch so far. The only thing I stand to lose is opportunity when it gets better and I thing we've got plenty of time for that.

But if yer still in do you get out now? i dunno. Couple days ago I called the bottom at 20,000 DJIA, now I don't know if that's real. Too much hysteria, too much panic, too much brainwashing. I 'spect it to drop more.

Iffn I was 68 years old and retired I'd yank everything out of equities yesterday if not sooner. I would not buy bonds, they're over-bought and will drop when things recover and I'm not good enough to time that just right.

But take all that with a grain of salt.
When it comes to predicting stocks I'm wrong more often than right.

I am in mutual funds for the most part already so I "should" be OK. But dang this is gettin' scary.

Thanks all!

[cabmandone]

On the plus side, if you live in a state where weed is legal you can have the doctor prescribe it for anxiety. There are pluses to every situation if you look hard enough for them.

Something that strikes me as weird. Trump goes on TV, talks about the response. The market drops supposedly because investors don't like the response. Let's be honest here. There is no stimulus that will keep the economy from slipping. A big tax cut or tax credit putting money in the pocket of consumers isn't going to help because those consumers are too afraid of a virus to consume things other than things they think they'll need to prevent the virus or help them if they get the virus.

On the medical front there isn't much that can be done any faster than it's being done right now.

[bleucamaro]

As someone 20+ yrs from retiring, I see this as the market going on sale and a buying opportunity.

[LWJ]

My MIL felt similar in 2009. She sold at approximately 50% her peak value. I stayed in. Her value in cash stayed at the level where she cashed out. She has 1/2 what she had in 2008 today in 2020.

Me? I stayed in and moved a little strategically. Lost on some. Won on some. Stock portfolio at least 4x from the bottom.

Time heals all.

How long you plan on living?

[id10t]

Originally Posted by bleucamaro

As someone 20+ yrs from retiring, I see this as the market going on sale and a buying opportunity.

As someone with kids aged 9, 16, and 19 I'm thinking starting a Roth IRA or similar and putting a minimal amount into FXAIX or some other index fund could be a good idea....

[93nav]

Flattbut,

If you pulled all your equities positions out now, would you still have enough to retire on?

Your bond stuff probably has not dropped.

Your equity stuff has probably dropped.

No need to say here, but what percent do you have in each?

Where would you be if the equity portion dropped another 50%?

Are you sleeping at night, how nervous are you?

[Bugsinrugs]

So at the ripe old age of 68 I’m pretty nervous too. 1/4 of our portfolio is in the market. My wife handles that end as she is rational and calm. 3/4 of our worth is in real estate. Just had two tenants move out. One gave notice the other just bailed. The normal tenant left the place in great shape and will be a quick turn around. The other trashed the place. New bathroom and all new appliances needed. Last couple of nights have been rough. But, we will be contributing to the economy. I guess that’s one way to look at it.

[flatbutt]

Originally Posted by 93nav

Flattbut,

If you pulled all your equities positions out now, would you still have enough to retire on?

Your bond stuff probably has not dropped.

Your equity stuff has probably dropped.

No need to say here, but what percent do you have in each?

Where would you be if the equity portion dropped another 50%?

Are you sleeping at night, how nervous are you?

I am 60% equity. If I pulled out now I'd still be OK. If it goes down another 50% I'd be hosed.


I'm sleeping just fine thanks, not yet panicked just nervous. I've been in this position before and stayed in and did well so I'll prolly do the same this time. It just feels better to winge a bit.

[berettafan]

I think this is just a big sale. a good time to look into buying. trick is figuring out how long this is gonna last and whether it will truly have lasting effects on certain co's and industries.

I will say a Dem win in November would almost certainly seal our fate. Trump and co. need to hold tight and not give the house away while this is going on. If this virus situation is resolved by election time i think we'll be good to go. If Joe takes his meds and Trump puts his foot in his mouth too many times such that he loses then we are in for serious trouble.

[93nav]

I won't give you advice on what to do with your investments, that is for you to decide.

But, you are 68, no telling how this is going to turn out. I suggest you take this time to look at ALL your expenses and see if there are places you can tighten your belt now.

Also, any way to increase your income now, or after this virus blows over? Even a little.

Note: I am the belt AND suspenders kind of guy.

Good luck.

Originally Posted by flatbutt

I am 60% equity. If I pulled out now I'd still be OK. If it goes down another 50% I'd be hosed.


I'm sleeping just fine thanks, not yet panicked just nervous. I've been in this position before and stayed in and did well so I'll prolly do the same this time. It just feels better to winge a bit.