You need a lifeboat, not a link.

Are you posting drunk again?

OOOO. Is goat rope the word of the day? Actually, you need to prove that not doing anything would have been better as doing something is the only model we have. Of course, you can always dig up the failed Sweden numbers again.
So, back to your "torn down country" assertion. Tell me more?

That's it, the posting drunk canard as a witty retort?

Ouch!

Really, just send me a link to the journal article with the model you and your peers felt strongly enough about to share in a public forum. Multiple links if required to establish decades of excellence.

Look forward to it.

Thanks.

Seeing as how heated the arguments here, and elsewhere, can get, I really doubt he wants to dox himself.

Yes mask effectiveness and distancing is very relevant. Different masks for different objectives.

If you are an MD working an 8 hr shift on the COVID floor, you are at very high risk of catching this thing because it's all about viral load + time. 8 hrs in a high viral load with 20 patients shedding the virus calls for high level PPE and high level filtration N95 mask.

Completely different objectives when walking into a hardware store or airport. Maybe only 2% of the viral load out in public is fine 1 micron airborne particles. 98% is hitching a ride on droplets and aerosols emitted while speaking or breathing. The goal here is to take out the projection energy of droplets and aerosols. Normal breathing and talking typically projects 2-3' but if an infected person is wearing a cloth or surgical mask that projection is reduced to 2-3 inches. That is a game changer and greatly reduces the risk of others near them by keeping their droplets to themselves. We don't really care if an infected person keeps touching their face with a mask on, just contain the droplets and aerosols to 2-3" and the community spread is effectively halted.

Once beyond about 3-4' the droplet projection energy from speaking falls off exponentially so yes, 6' distance is 1/10th the exposure risk that 3' presents. 12' distance is 1/100th the risk of 3' distance and so on. It is the same principle as light, sound, radiation energy etc.

So until we get an effective vaccine or widespread UV-C lighting treatment for public spaces, avoiding crowds, 6' distancing, frequent handwashing, and masks when distancing is not possible is the best we have to contain the spread. It is a simple straightforward mitigation that costs nothing and everyone can do it. The pilot analogy is our pre-flight checklist, visual scanning, and collision avoidance.

Will there be winners and losers in this pandemic? Of course. As a working musician our only performances will be outdoors with distancing. this cuts our live performances by 90% and it sucks. It just sucks less than getting the Wuhan flu.

I know, trust me...just poking the Oracle of Progressive.

I'll stop. Good thread, better advice.

Thanks for that explanation. Makes a lot of sense, even to a layperson like me.

I don't fault the scientists for making mistakes about the virus--it's novel, as the name says. Nor did they have accurate data because we were unable to test enough. So I suspect they defaulted to where docs usually do: the do no harm approach. Be overly conservative as to recommendations, then adjust as and when new data comes in.

For years I had to pre-medicate before going to the dentist, because of a really tiny chance of bacterial infection during routine dental procedures. Then, as the science progressed, understandings and procedures changed, to where it is no longer recommended.

We are now losing roughly four fully loaded airplanes full of people each day. I hope we don't get used to that. Be safe, all.

All my work is on ResearchGate, SeaSquawk

Pick any of them.

Start a new thread. This one deserves some air.

I'll join if you PM the titles and the authors. I will not share them here. You have my word.

Best.

Now, Mrs. SeaSquawk and I are out to celebrate our 30th wedding anniversary with a re-enactment of that faithful night.

I should be back here in about 10, 15 minutes.:cool:

...��

If I select you as my running mate :eek:, will that make you my Queen?!?! :eek:

This thread was originally about some of the lesser known consequences of covid. It got sidetracked, as the covid masks threads do. I read Cajun's response above and am in total agreement with it. Perhaps this is another derail.

At the same time I was reading his response, I was watching a presentation by german clinicians regarding the same issue. Modes of transmission, droplets vs. aerosols, efficacy of ppe n95 vs surgical masks, etc. Instead of getting into some big drawn out argument, I want to share the specific links the presenters cited.

Agree, disagree, whatever you want. I am not an epidemiologist. I am the messenger, but it aligns closely with Cajundaddy's post, and is consistent in findings.

Here they are:

COVID is primarily transmitted droplet vs. aerosol:

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations

An earlier study of outbreak in China- pointing to primarily droplet spread influenced by hvac systems.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article


Although in laboratory testing, N95 outperform surgical masks, in clinical data, they test relatively equal in efficacy/ a 2009 study:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/184819

A later 2019 study confirming the same:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214

There are other meta-analysis studies as well, with fairly large numbers, showing similar.

A 2020 nature medicine study, Also studying masks efficacy. Mentioned by the presenter as interesting, was the finding that the surgical masks entirely prevented coronavirus shedding, while not completely stopping influenza (mentioned in the discussion, where the study also claims surgical mask efficacy in stopping aerosols).

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

Perhaps these were all discussed in some other thread, but I found the similarities between Cajun's post and the presenters links as interesting.

Granted, these studies do not include the "face coverings" made by grandma, and I would not try to include them here, but the findings seem to point to a trend.

Personally, I am most amazed by "Face shields" They have no filtration, but in certain environments, can be very effective.

This article claims a very high initial rate of effectiveness:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2765525


This article claims that over a 96% at immediate close range. Even after 1-30 minutes, a simple face shield can block up to 23% of coughing aerosols.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24467190/

That's pretty impressive, as it has no filtering at all.

Seem like a face shield alone might be a more effective source control than an improperly worn grandma mask in some situations. Not arguing- just interesting.

So this is what I read at summer camp. Take it for what you will. Use it, abuse it, whatever. I'm sure everyone will still be talking about covid a year from now. Enjoy :)
Ron

Thx for working that up, Ron.

I do hope, tho, that your screen name does not apply to your mask.

Congrats and give her my best...err...you know what I mean. :)

Here is my advice, take it for what you paid for it...be careful. Take precautions as though it’s in your town, because it might be. By all means, get out on your boat and enjoy summer!

I’m up in northern WI as you know and there is virtually zero Covid19 up here so far. With people from the Twin Cities coming up to their cabins now, it increases the possibility of someone bringing it up and spreading it a bit...hard to say how much. I’m cautious but definitely not paranoid and sometimes wear a mask in stores, sometimes not. Depends how many other people are there and how easy it is to maintain 6’ or more.

Mostly, I’m eating really well and not under any stress, which makes all the difference in the world. The silver lining to this is that I’m paying more attention to diet and for instance, I always grab a small bunch of organic bananas at the store and try to eat one every day. Other stuff like that. Knock on wood but I just turned 61 and I’m healthy as a fk horse...who knows how long that lasts. Enjoy life and stay healthy, that is your fundamental right. :cool:

healthy as a horse that eats organic bananas??

Dallas and Tarrant (Ft. Worth area) counties have been setting one record after another for numbers of infected since people started going apeshiit with freeeedooooommmmm here - not sure how much of that is due to simply increased rates of testing, but it's interesting to see, nonetheless.

Nope! Vice King .... or as I prefer... King of Vice :D

Vice Principal is more like it
I eat plenty of foods that are high in D, a lot of eggs and oatmeal I have a convertible, I wear sunscreen and a good hat, inadequate solar exposure is not generally the issue. Never dug crowds, always wash my hands frequently. I went through my training in San Francisco when AIDS was jumping off in the early 1990's "Universal Precautions" they said, double gloving became very popular. Prior to that, there were a lot of people that did not wear eye protection, no really. Frankly I never was too shook about HIV, hepatitis always worried me more, seems to me it would be more transmissible, and it is probably more common. There are even exotic varieties of hepatitis viruses :eek:

I never have been able to sleep 8 hours, unless I am sick or something, which does not often happen. If I go to bed at 11, I am up at 6.

Only thing different is the mask, which I really don't have to wear that often. Already had a sweet N95 mask I kept in the car in case of smoke. We have fires of all flavors here, grass, forest, dumpster. They give me a crappy ear loop mask every day I have to go in to the hospital, right after they take my temp and give me a squirt of hand sanitizer. That is the way they do entry to the building now. I bet I have given away 30 or 40 masks to patients, I had a couple of boxes of them


The numbers really are not scary. There are scary stories, but statistically, not so much

In order to attain the adoration of American sheep, a candidate must be ripe with vice and debauchery; we are going to win biggly yuuuuuggggeeeee, KC!!!