Yes, you can show in a lab that the virus “survives” for less time at higher temperature and with more sunlight. But at the same time you could see the virus spreading just fine in tropical climates. Real world evidence trumps theory.

AC is probably also an issue. In Phoenix in July, people don’t spend much time outside ... they gather indoors where it is AC’d.

Other than the cohort of people (1) over 70 AND (2) in nursing homes or home care, Sweden didn’t do too bad at all.
Kept schools open, businesses open etc. Life for a lot of people, including kids, was not turned upside down.

“As of June 24, 3,612 people aged 70 or more living in care homes or receiving home care had died from Covid-19, according to data from the National Board of Health and Welfare. That represents 79% of the total deaths recorded up to that date.”

Those people are already “sheltered in place,” so Sweden’s approach suggests a lot of things.

Perhaps one being that forcing non-retirement age, healthy people to hide in their houses for 3 months may not necessarily be that useful or of the most net benefit.

Another one being their keeping their schools open. They don’t have the mess that we now have with kids going back to school soon, and now 2 years of education being disrupted.

So I agree with what someone said above. At this point, was it a success or failure? Unknown. Saying otherwise is just a reaction driven by emotional political bias.

Interesting take, I'll give you that. I'm not sure many will agree that China and Italy managed to "control" their outbreaks, but I guess that is a matter of subjective analysis. Again, like I said earlier - confirmation bias. Everything is so nebulous, so ill defined, that we can ascribe any cause to any result we so desire. There is absolutely no way to say with any certainty that one population would have been more or less "successful" had they taken a different approach. The ultimate opportunity for the "Monday morning quarterbacks" among us.

Absolutely. Guilty as charged. We are data driven. We make decisions based on observable, quantifiable data. We expect others to do so as well, at least insofar as they wish to make decisions on how others should live their lives. When they are making law, imposing their authority upon the rest of us, we would prefer their decisions to be data driven. If they do not know, if they do not have solid data supporting their decisions that will ultimately affect other's livelihoods, they have no right to impose their decisions on the rest of us.

While they busy are "winging it", others are suffering irreparable financial harm. They do not have the authority, legal nor moral, to act in this manner. It's one thing to go through life making these kinds of baseless decisions for themselves, but when they abuse their authority to impose their scatter gun, willy-nilly approach on the rest of us, they have gone too far.

“Within the US, that must be why Washington, Oregon, and others have managed to hold cases down while Texas, Florida, Arizona are seeing it get out of control like it did in New York.”

Have Washington, Oregon etc. started opening up in earnest yet? (I don’t know the answer to that).

If not, that’s perhaps why.

Because California was in that Washington etc group too for a while. But now it’s in the Texas group.

Yep. (@ Jeff)

Engineers have demonstrated in school that they are capable of not only solving sets of equations ... multiple equations with multiple unknowns, but also be able to identify when some of those multiple equations are actually the same eqn. In the real world this carries over to visualizing solution spaces for all sorts of systems. --as in finding regions of a matrix /set where a solution may exist. And is actually the opposite of particularly prone to analysis paralysis in this sort of situation.

For this particular topic I have been pointing to the fact that this has been spread quickly by people simply breathing. -not "spittle." And that this 3-6' rule is BS. That this virus can stay aloft like smoke in the air...

The only analysis paralysis in this sort of situation comes from those trying to follow the bouncing ball of bad information coming from "health professionals" with political motives.

Some here seem to believe that "you don't need to wear a mask. It won't help. Wash your hands." until the same "health professional" says "wear a mask, but not the kind we wear. Those are only for us."

Of course if you had a solid understanding of physics you would have spotted that BS much earlier, and avoided your analysis paralysis.

TX is in the news for their huge spike.

Their 7 day rolling average recently shot up to 66 deaths per day.

The State of NY is down to 26 deaths per day. (7 day rolling average)

IOW The State of NY is down to what has been typical for the State of Texas.

(note the Y-axis scales)
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1594351328.JPG


http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1594351328.JPG

And why is TX shooting up? They've had mask policy...

Also a heat wave that keeps people inside under AC. (as you have noted)

So many variables...

But in no WAY has Texas "shot up like New York."

Throughout this Texas has held numbers that NY is celebrating getting down to.

If Texas shoots up from their current high of 66 deaths per day to 1000 then you can say that Texas "shot up like New York."

there was “quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done.”

- Anders Tegnell, interviewed by Sverige Radio, 2 June 2020

Haha, ok smart guy, you win! Cuz AZ and MA are like N and S Dakota they are so alike. :D Let's not change the subject because you don't want to be proven wrong.

What does the death rate have to be on a weekly or monthly basis over 1 year, or 2 years, for Denmark, Finland and Norway to just equal the Swedish death rate to date?

That's the math you need to do. That's the topic we are on.

Sweden: 5550 deaths to date

Norway: 251, Sweden 22 times # of deaths

Denmark: 609, Sweden 9 times # of deaths

Finland: 329, Sweden 17 times # of deaths

NY State 32,343 dead, 6 times more than Sweden

Pennsylvania 6,904 dead...

Oh wait, we are talking nations. ...

US 135,978 dead, 25 times # of deaths of Sweden

:rolleyes:

Now can you see how stupid is your "math"?

Do you comprehend how time lags work? In your world, do effects always immediately follow causes?

See my other post - when NY first hit 7000 new cases/day, deaths/day were only 100. A month later, the deaths/day were 1300 - because effects take time to manifest. Today, TX is at 7000 new cases/day and you're confident that deaths/day will stay at the current 50?

Poor Shaun...Never seems to see the folly of his own "logic", even when lead around by the hand, and/or when it's thrown back at him.
Well, if you are not inclined to include even the most basic/obvious variables, like population/per-capita numbers, I'd say you need a refresher on arithmetic, or you are just being willfully ignorant. If it's the latter, then lets play:

Wait, Shaun! You forgot Iceland, another Nordic country (so, it must be "comparable"): 10.

Findland: 33 times # of deaths of Iceland
Denmark: 61 times # of deaths of Iceland.
Norway: 25 times # of deaths of Iceland.

What does the death rate have to be on a weekly or monthly basis over 1 year, or 2 years, for Iceland to just equal the death rate for Denmark, Finland, and Norway?

That's the math you need to do. That's the topic we're on (cuz I say so :rolleyes:).

How are Finland, Denmark, and Norway "getting it so wrong" compared to Iceland?
Why are they failing so much compared to Iceland?
Why are we all not following the "Iceland" model?!?!?

5500 deaths out of 10 MILLION people?
And 80% of those were on death’s door already.
This is not exactly the Black Plague of Sweden.

Do you know how to read? (just mocking you there - I know that you know how to read.

Here it is again (what I wrote, and what you even quoted)

If Texas shoots up from their current high of 66 deaths per day to 1000 then you can say that Texas "shot up like New York."

https://cdn3.whatculture.com/images/...8d-600x338.jpg

:D

This is a great description of the difference between engineers and scientists.

Engineers deal with finite knowledge that has been tested and proven to be absolute. Want to design something, engineers simply have to refer to finite data in scores of tables. Look up a modulus, see if it works for the application, use it if it does. Simple.


Scientists have no such luck as the best they can do is apply known data in testing and then defining the unknown. That's pretty much the definition of science. It would be nice if scientists could just look up the specs of CV19 and tell the world exactly what to do, what drugs to take, how to act, easy, right, just look on page 49 of the virus manual, table 3.1. Done.

Of course that's not how the real world works when something brand new is generated, there is no book, no table to look up a modulus that will cure us all. Science is all about creating whole new books, not looking at tables.

Both scientists and engineers are valuable members in our society. I think it would be helpful for each to walk a few steps in the shoes of the other.

They do, all of the time. Both ways.

scientists need/use their engineering skills to set up experiments.
and
engineers use scientific methods to prove designs.

"engineers simply have to refer to finite data in scores of tables. " -- That's like saying t-shirt designers simply refer to what's been designed before.

Today

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1595558148.JPG

Here's lockdown capital in comparison with record case counts 5 months in.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1595556359.jpg

I agree, here is an example.

This, after having established that Sweden differs greatly from other Scandinavian countries with respect to demographics.

Total deaths, Normalized by population, Sweden is in the top 5 (worst) countries. USA is 430/million, Sweden is 540/million.

Yea but if Sweden has basically “topped out” and everyone else’s death counts continue to climb (they will) who will have had the right approach by the time all is said and done? That’s the real question.

Predicting the winner of a marathon by who’s ahead at Mile 7 is not going to be very accurate...

Washington State, again total deaths normalized by population, is 192 deaths/million. 1/2 US average, 35% Sweden.

Can't compare two different demographics, Sweden has an older population, on death rates. Cases, yes.

WA is still not done yet.

Sweden has not 'topped out', and is climbing faster than most of Europe. I added Washington state to chart. All normalized by population.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1595561697.jpg

Data from here: An interactive visualization of the exponential spread of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

Based on Island’s graph I’d expect that curve to level off within the next few days... if very few new instances are being reported (what I mean by topped out”) as per that graph then the deaths per 1M is going to climb for other nations while Sweden’s curve goes flat or even decreases some (accounting for gradual net population increase)

And the STATE of New York has 1,679/million

And the State of NY took all kinds of drastic measures. Sweden did not.

Now I'm not trying to be down on NY, but rather point out that any region can get hit particularly hard.

Again, 1,679/million vs Sweden is 540/million - If you think that you can claim that Sweden did it wrong, just look at their death per million without then saying NY State did it wrong, just look at their death per million. all the while knowing that NY State had anti-social distancing and school closures and business closures
and mask wearing... (like so many other States)then you are missing the relevance, or lack thereof.

My info is from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (a University of Washington creation)

Worldometer is not a UW creation. You are thinking of IHME

Charts I posted above wereby normalized by population.

Yes, NY & NJ much worse. If this was PARF, I'd be happy to discuss why.......

More fun with graphs!

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1595566941.png

Thanks for the correction.

Dang ^Eric^ Massachusetts

I wonder what Shaun's perspective is now on Sweden's model being guaranteed needless deaths.

tap tap tap...

is this thing on?

Shaun?

Did Massachusetts not close down schools, businesses and mandate people wear masks?

This thing is far from over. Check back in 2024 to see how Sweden fared compared with the ROW both in terms of Covid and their economy. Currently both the USA and Sweden are projected to have approximately -6% growth in GDP though 2020. These numbers are also very fluid. Check back in 2024...

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/USA

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/U8lckBkHjZk" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

This.
Will see if Sweden has a second wave that is less severe than is predicted for other countries.

Seems you guys are hoping for a second wave to devastate Sweden, all to 'be right.'

Sweden's expected growth, or lack thereof, is centered about their trading partners camping in a covid cower.

BUT, the Swedes are out living life. --not everything is about GDP.

Meanwhile, the States pretend that wearing bandanas and closing schools parks and businesses will be the answer.

The OP ^

So, RSBob...

Did ya see Eric's post?

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1595566941.png

Are you still sticking with "what an utter failure there[sic / Sweden's] approach turned out to be" ?