It is really too soon to say. It is not too soon to say, "Sweden did it wrong" is a foolish thing to say.

Ah ya... No. :rolleyes:

Foolish is as foolish does. Or lacks comprehension.

If you had read my follow up post, you would have understood why I came up with the title. Must be asking too much. Need to keep it more simplistic in the future. Know you audience.

Why you came up with the title?

Here is what you said:
Bolded the operative part for ya

IOW, Tobra is spot on.

The differences in outcomes are much larger than what can be attributed to what Sweden did (or didn't do).

Concluding that Sweden's approach has been an utter failure was/is ridiculous.

Sure, you can cherry pick and compare Sweden's death per million to Norway's (564 vs 47 per million)

But then we can compare NY State to Vermont (1679 vs 90 per million) -they border each other like Norway and Sweden,

Are you seeing the point? New York and Vermont had pretty much the same shut down policies, yet a huge difference in outcomes.

There is no correlation to mask wearing or shut-downs. Hell, even Norway reopened their schools after a couple of weeks.

No, Norway didn’t reopen schools after a couple of weeks. It was May 11th. Right now Sweden is «hoping» for a large second wave in Norway to prove themselves right. Well, they have a head start at about 5400 corpses more than us.

While their economy has taken just as large a hit as the rest of the Nordic, they have been pleading that Norwegians can enter the border territories so they can sell cheap alcohol, tobacco, soda and meat to Norwegians. And now one of those areas was opened - so let’s see how it goes. Also, thousands of Norwegians have been vacationing in Spain, which was tagged as a Red zone, so I’m a little worried too about that second wave too...

Norway reopened schools after a couple of months then. The larger point being that there is no correlation... Schools in the States have been shuttered indefinitely and our Covid numbers are much higher.

By the way, Why would so many Norwegians be vacationing in Spain in the summer? Summers are stunning in Norway.

You’re right, Spain in the winter makes a lot more sense.

Yeah, summer is nice in Norway, but the weather is extremely unstable and unpredictable. You could get 30 degrees and sun, or you can get 10 degrees and rain. Almost in the same day.

About 1 of 5 Norwegians go to Spain during the year. Most in the summer/fall.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Sweden is looking good.

And so is Wyoming.

Yes, comparing Wyoming to Sweden is dumb. Same as trying to compare Sweden to other countries.

For the record....
https://twitter.com/malkusm/status/1289553999968874498

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EeVqhxXX...g&name=900x900

"Slowing" the spread insures more people get infected and the economic pain lasts much longer. Not to mention the methods used violate everyone's constitutional rights.

Sweden did the right thing AND preserved civil rights. We now live in an unaccountable technocracy.

So true. So sad.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Appreciate the bold but in your haste to prove how wrong I am you failed to read above
“If you had read my follow up post, you would have understood why I came up with the title.”

I did not say, In my original post, but in my follow-up post. Hence thank you for proving my point my about comprehension.

So here is my follow-up post since looking it up was evidently too much effort...

Post #80, “The purpose of this thread was a counterpoint to the initial equally dubious assertion that Sweden’s approach was a great success. All we really know is that Sweden’s initial appearance of success was a mirage. How they ultimately fair compared to like Scandinavia countries, only time will tell.”

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1596430728.jpg

If you compute death rate in Sweden compared to infections, Sweden has over a 7% Mortality rate compared to a world mortality rate of around 4%. Sweden is doing it right if it means effectively killing off a higher proportion of those infected. If you are talking about the US economy being down the tubes because we didn’t ignore the virus when it first appeared here, 150,000 dead would have been peanuts in comparison. If we don’t hit 200,000 by October using half-@$$ed controls I’ll be very surprised. So what is a fair level of GDP savings compared to ignoring the virus and say having theoretically 500,000 dead now as a result?

If usa has same death rate as Sweden, we would have 200,000 dead now.

I suppose in theory, but not likely in reality.

Sweden, in round numbers, has had 5700 deaths.

But around 4,700 of those deaths were of people who were strictly “sheltering in place” (stuck in nursing homes).

So of the 10 million others, who were not under lockdown or “shelter in place” order (i.e., the vast majority of their population), there were only 1,000 deaths.

Like NYC, Sweden had an issue with how they handled their nursing home situation. Part of it is natural, because those in nursing homes naturally have a lot of comorbidities, and also are very elderly and statistically close to death (I saw a stat that said even before Covid the chance of surviving in a nursing home for 1 year was something like 20%).

But in any event, maybe Sweden could have done better with their nursing homes (but maybe not, or not much better?). But outside of nursing homes, which represents the vast majority of society, they seem to have done quite well.

So using just math with no context, Sweden would show that sheltering in place kills.

4700 of the dead in Sweden were sheltering in place.
1000 of the dead were not sheltering in place.
Therefore sheltering in place kills, you’re almost 5 times likely to die from Covid if you shelter in place.

No, infecting elderly with existing co-morbidities kills. Sheltering or not.
Re: Swedish approach. It might have worked or might not, we will know in few years when all excess deaths are counted and eventual second wave have passed.

Whether Swedish approach would work in US is another topic. Probably not.

I think you must be lost, this is the forum where people are not rude and insulting.

then people should stop posting foolish and stoopid things

contra legion, "Slowing" the spread insures more hospital and ICU facilities are available - it is not at all clear that immunity develops or lasts for an infected person who does not die and escapes chronic heart or other problems.

It is likely that Sweden did it wrong - we will know for sure later on. If your politics suffers from the facts of this disease, then post in PARF>>>>

Thank you Mr. Web. Well said.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1596512378.jpg

Someone get me a shot of diesel...

Good to know that people will gladly give up their civil rights (and at the same time force others to surrender theirs unwillingly) because the media was able to spin something into a big enough perceived threat. And then to add insult to injury, those who take up the right causes are exempted from oppression.

no shirt no shoes no service

I kinda doubt Swedish approach would work in US anyway.

First, we have free healthcare. So you do not wait until very sick just because you are afraid of the bill.

Second, we have paid sick leave. It would be very hard for an employer to fire someone because he/she is sick. So people stay at home at first sign of infection w/o worrying about money.

Third, people tend to follow government recommendation. So if government says: 2 meters distance, people do try to keep it in the shops, on the street etc.

Fourth, people are healthier and obesity is not as common.

Also, It is not "life as usual". Those who can work from home. Higher education moved online. And economy did drop quite a lot anyway.


But I still believe there is a chance we did the right thing as whole. Where we failed is to protect elderly (Most of those who died were 80+ )

Trump says we should open schools because children are at low risk of death. The reporter on MSNBC discussed how horrible this idea was and that many children will die if we open schools. So I looked up how many children died in Sweden. The answer: 1 in the 0-19 age group. (I think the chart on the link is supposed to say "19 years and younger", not "9 years and younger".)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

Children get infected by SARS2 at a similar rate as adults. While they almost always have mild or asymptomatic disease, they transmit the virus to adults quite effectively.

Contact tracing studies (Italy, S Korea) showed that older children (age 10-18) were the most effective viral spreaders. Meaning the % of their contacts who got infected was higher than the % for other age groups.

The data was inconclusive for younger children (age 0-19), with one study suggesting they were viral spreaders and the other suggesting otherwise; in both studies the number of younger children was tiny (a handful) which makes the results unreliable.

So the issue with opening schools is more about parents, teachers, staff, and the community. The risk to the children themselves is very low, though it does rise as you get into the higher grades/high school.

If a school district sends kids back to in-person school when the community still has high infection rates, there will quickly be kids infected, then the class and teacher will have to be quarantined for X days, or potentially the whole school closed down for X days. Those quarantines and closures will keep happening all school year. They will also have higher infection rates in the community, starting with parents and staff.

In theory, you could reopen schools with strict social distancing and extensive testing, as was done in some Asian countries - even there, schools have sometimes had to re-close. The US can't or won't do that. Exhibit A: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mollyhensleyclancy/georgia-school-reopening-photo-paulding-county

This is worth reading:

https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/08/04/how-bad-is-covid-really-a-swedish-doctors-perspective/

The risk of death to the children themselves is very low.

The risks of multi-system inflammatory syndrome is higher, still 'low'...esp. if it's not your kid.

This is exactly what I suspected all along. Not because I'm an expert at anything, but because I've always been an optimist and my gut instinct told me so.

6k dead in Sweden would translate into 24k dead so far in CA., more or less. CA. has ~10k dead and is considered a very bad place for Covid in the U.S. at this point. The U.S. is the worst place in the world, as far as countries go.

Pretty hard to celebrate Sweden at this point.

They are playing the long game. They are counting on, in the end, everyone's death rate will be about the same. They look worse right now, in the short haul, by they are banking on not experiencing the second and third waves others will experience as restrictions are lifted. Time will tell. If, in the end, everyone comes out about the same with regards to death rates, and they did not shut everything down and suffer economically, that should tell us something about what to do "next time".

Let's celebrate New York.

Especially hard to celebrate Sweden when you don't want to find anything good there.

While the ROW masked-up and shut-down Sweden said meh.

And what happened? First and foremost we got information on the effectiveness of our preventative measures.

While death per million is multifactorial we do know that the State of NJ and the State of NY did MUCH worse than Sweden.

If you can not (will not) see the ramifications of that then just put your fingers in your ears La La La La La La La La La like that. because you don't want to find anything good there.

Belgium, England, Spain, Italy all have higher death per population than Sweden.

NJ and NY State are on the order of 3x worse. Massachusetts and Connecticut are on the order of 2x worse. (than Sweden)

Should we celebrate all of the masking and "shelter in place" that took place in those States and countries?

Actually, it seems that we are celebrating those methods, as Governors continue to shut-down and mask-up.

Even better than lockdown poster child MI

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1597036999.jpg

Yep!

Speaking of MI, is Whitmer done yet ?

Whitmer extends emergency declaration in Michigan through Aug. 11
Craig Mauger and Melissa Nann Burke, The Detroit News Published 3:10 p.m. ET July 14, 2020 | Updated 8:55 p.m. ET July 14, 2020

Lansing — Gov. Gretchen Whitmer extended her state of emergency declaration for Michigan through Aug. 11, saying Tuesday that COVID-19 is "still a very real threat in our state."

The nearly four-week extension comes as the governor's office says every region in Michigan saw an uptick in new COVID-19 cases over the past three weeks as other states have experienced spikes in infections and hospitalization

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07/14/whitmer-extends-emergency-declaration-michigan-through-aug-11/5437326002/