I am unaware of any COVID related lawsuits outside of those filed against elderly care facilities by grieving families, and those filed by various states' Attorney Generals against businesses that had the audacity to open in defiance of Governors' orders. Can you provide examples?

I disagree. And I was a college athlete myself, but I would never suggest that participating at that level has provided me with any sort of special insight. Perhaps if I were involved in the administration of college level athletics, but certainly not just from kicking a football around on the pitch.

I do not. I thought we were discussing the health ramifications of this pandemic, with you having more or less discounted the political aspect of it. I include the legal ramifications of this under the "political" side of the ledger, and have already said I believe that it plays far too much of a role in our response. You have argued against that and, once again, appear to have changed course and are now saying it makes a difference. Which is it?

Yes, there is a profound cultural difference. Americans are defiant, Swedes more or less do what they are told. There is far greater trust in government and in any sort of "officials" in general in Sweden than here in the U.S. - I believe that stems, in a large part, from the corrupted media/politician relationship that I previously alluded to. Americans are rightfully skeptical - we have been lied to, repeatedly, over too many issues.

I certainly do not "expect otherwise", and gave no indication that I do. I believe that I stated, very clearly, my understanding of how our media has been corrupted by only reporting "what sells". I also decried the fact that, because it "sells", that our media is vastly over-emphasizing every COVID related death. And yes, I do wish more Americans would "turn off" this "news", having described it as a "symbiotic relationship" that feeds on itself, to everyone's detriment. I thought I was pretty clear on all of that.

Yes, we will.

I have now outlined my position, I believe fairly clearly, with my reasons for having adopted it. What is your position, and what has led you to it?

They do. Hospitalizations do follow such "upticks" in cases, but for some time have not kept pace with the initial ratios of cases/hospitalizations/deaths. In other words, while cases are up, hospitalizations are markedly down, and deaths are dramatically down.

Yet we are now seeing an emphasis on cases, where previous reporting was focused on hospitalizations and deaths. We are asked to believe that mere cases are justification for continued lockdowns, or even regressions to previous lockdown levels, while we were originally told that the lockdowns and restrictions were in place to cut down on hospitalizations and deaths.

You know, flattening the curve. As I stated earlier, that curve has been flattened - we now enjoy excess capacity in our hospitals, having reopened them for elective surgeries. We are "out of the woods" on that original justification - so now mere cases are being used as the new justification. I've explained all of this already... What is it you do not understand?

Actually, deaths don’t automatically follow such upticks. It depends on what part of the progression of the epidemic you’re in. If it’s the beginning, then yes, deaths initially follow positive tests. But positive tests later in the progression of the epidemic DO NOT necessarily result in deaths. This can currently be seen in the data globally.

Here’s a vid explaining it in better detail: https://youtu.be/FU3OibcindQ


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Mahler, I don't mean this as a slight, but you seem to be approaching this as less a discussion, more an adversarial interaction.

new report in JAMA Network Open today

“What we want people to know is that this has 1918 potential,” lead author Dr. Jeremy Faust said in an interview

Without 100 years of medical advances it would be similar. They use worst case NY to make their case. No other area has approached those levels since the first month of spread.

From the article that you didn't mention.

The study’s authors noted that their research had limitations. The researchers said it’s unknown how many Covid-19 deaths have been prevented since the outbreak began because of modern improvements in health care that weren’t available a century ago, such as supplemental oxygen and ventilators.

Yes Covid 19 has become a giant political punching bag only to further divide the Right from the Left. Kinda sad because it got in our way and cost us a much longer period of community spread and business interruptions.

I think conditions still vary a great deal regionally with the NE having very limited hospitalizations but CA, AZ, TX, FL still seeing significant serious illness. In SoCal the infection numbers peaked in July with hospitalizations and deaths peaking in August. Locally our major med center has 65 serious covid patients and that number was 90 just 2 weeks ago. In March and April it averaged 12-15.

For every covid case that dies, roughly another 10 will survive with serious long term heart, lung, kidney damage, or stroke. A full 10% of infected persons contract serious illness while another 10% have mild symptoms. 80% of infected have little or no symptoms at all. It is a very strange disease with a lot of unknown unknowns and it seems to affect everyone who gets ill a bit differently.

Can we pull off all the stops and just let her run? I think the price would be very high and hospitals would rapidly reach capacity of care.

"I am unaware of any COVID related lawsuits outside of those filed against elderly care facilities by grieving families, and those filed by various states' Attorney Generals against businesses that had the audacity to open in defiance of Governors' orders. Can you provide examples?"

I think there is a natural time delay. I think if everything "just opened up fully," the liability issues would be myriad and the number of lawsuits would be higher. I think the lawsuit train is already on the tracks, even if we cannot see the headlight or hear the whistle.

There is clearly some concern, for example related to employment:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/liability-shield-is-next-coronavirus-aid-battle-11588589100

https://www.foley.com/en/insights/publications/2020/06/shield-employers-state-covid-19-indemnity-laws (A lawyer for that firm conducted my college interview by telephone, so many years ago).

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/shield-employers-state-covid-19-indemnity-laws

Restaurants:

https://modernrestaurantmanagement.com/restaurant-owners-could-face-a-host-of-new-liabilities-as-a-result-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Again, I think the train is already on the tracks. Opening up completely and fully on a knife switch tomorrow might be seen as a nuclear-powered supercharger or turbocharger for the engine.

"I disagree. And I was a college athlete myself, but I would never suggest that participating at that level has provided me with any sort of special insight. Perhaps if I were involved in the administration of college level athletics, but certainly not just from kicking a football around on the pitch."

I never claimed "special insight," the word I used was "thoughts." I was a D1 athlete in a sport that has a current footprint several fold smaller than when I competed. Largely due to Title IX, yet to some extent impact by liability costs.

Some related perspective:

https://www.booker.senate.gov/news/press/ncaa-revokes-covid-19-liability-waiversfor-college-athletes-in-response-tobooker-and-blumenthal-demand

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/canceling-college-football-coming-down-dollars-sense-n1236541

They are not likely to mention liability in specific for reasons of optics. But it was clearly a factor. Head of Pac 12 CEO group, UofO President Michael Schill: "“If we were going to do this responsibly or if we were going to do it responsibly, we would have to do a level of testing -- both COVID-19 testing and also potentially cardio MRIs -- that we weren’t sure we had the capacity to do,” Schill said. “We don’t know what the testing resources are going to be. We have to do very frequent testing over the course of the season.”"

Of course they could buy all of the necessary equipment and supplies... what would happen if a highly tested athlete contracted the virus and became a super-spreader in the gen pop at Cal? Lawsuit? Wouldn't a gen-pop student paying full tuition consider litigation if he or she did not have access to the same testing and infection preventative regimens as an athlete?

" There is far greater trust in government and in any sort of "officials" in general in Sweden than here in the U.S. - I believe that stems, in a large part, from the corrupted media/politician relationship that I previously alluded to. Americans are rightfully skeptical - we have been lied to, repeatedly, over too many issues."

I have no idea whether people in Sweden trust their government more than here in the US. Do you have some type of survey data? Last time I extensively interacted with Swedes was in engineering grad school hanging with Leo and Charlotte and the Swedes drinkin' vodka... a lot of it. After all it was winter in New Hampshire.

"corrupted media/politician relationship"... not sure what you mean by that.

"I believe that I stated, very clearly, my understanding of how our media has been corrupted by only reporting "what sells". I also decried the fact that, because it "sells", that our media is vastly over-emphasizing every COVID related death."

I think our US media industry has evolved since I was a kid, powered in large part by advancing technology and capitalism. And I think that "yellow journalism" has been around a long time.

Some perhaps helpful perspective:

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1866-1898/yellow-journalism

I was not around at that time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_journalism

Perhaps the only "cure" is state journalism in the minds of some. I don't like that idea.

"Yet we are now seeing an emphasis on cases, where previous reporting was focused on hospitalizations and deaths. "

I guess that must be a matter of opinion. Your opinion and perhaps experience differs from mine.

I have not followed much "reporting," but I fully understand the relationship between "cases" and morbidity, mortality and costs.

Going to be hard to sue a business over a covid infection and win. The person or persons went to that place of business on their own free will fully knowing the risk.

From Schill:

"and also potentially cardio MRIs -- that we weren’t sure we had the capacity to do,”

I have plenty of folks in my network that'd be happy to sell Pac 12 schools everything they need including MRI systems and ultrasound systems to screen their entire campuses for Covid-19-related heart issues (perhaps in asymptomatic patients).

July 12, Florida set a record for the most COVID-19 cases in a single day. 1 month has passed and Florida's highest COVID-19 death total is 276 which significantly less than NY's single day death toll record. Morbidity and mortality? Florida even with more known infections than NY has a lower morbidity and mortality rate than NY did when NY was the epicenter.

That's good. The people in Florida must somehow be more special than the people in NY.

Or the number of infections really doesn't mean as much as the news media and others are making it out to. From what I've found, the number of younger people getting the virus is higher in Florida which would explain a lot of why their deaths aren't touching NY's numbers.

NY was hit when there was little testing. A complete lack of known and effective medical treatment. Along with terrible decisions by leadership on how to deal with the pandemic and those infected.

It is a problematic disease that must be taken seriously.

We cannot continue with huge economic shutdowns. Small business is being decimated. The working class is being driven into a corner and risk loss of any and all savings, homes, and other assets.

We must be smart enough to learn from the last 5 months and work at getting more and more people back to being productive. If not, there won't be any money for doctors or hospitals and you will be working for a token payment.

"Or the number of infections really doesn't mean as much as the news media and others are making it out to."

Why would this matter? Why does it matter what "the news media and others" say?


Is it mostly about deaths?

Perhaps interesting perspective:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02335-z

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/06/13/report-suggests-some-mildly-symptomatic-covid-19-patients-endure-serious-long-term-effects/

Longer-term sequelae, even for folks that did not require hospitalization (or maybe even completely asymptomatic?) likely will be better understood as we continue. And of course the mantra... morbidity, mortality and cost will be part of that- we will see.

Why do you ignore the current economic impact that is staggering?

Where are we going to be when cities and states file for bankruptcy? Without a change it will happen. Then where will we be?

Because the "others' harping on the high number of infections in places like Florida and Texas are allegedly medical professionals and some of them are advocating for more shutdowns to prevent "another Florida or Texas" when Florida and Texas combined haven't seen close to the daily death numbers that NY and NJ did.
"look at the infection rate!" seems to be the battle cry. If the number of infections are in age groups that tend to survive this virus, why do infection rates matter?

^^^ Same phenomenon here in AZ. A few weeks back we were one of the country's top "hot spots" and now (as of a few days back at least) we have the lowest number of daily cases (and lowest R0) in the country.

social experiment

Ignore the hollow battle cry but don't ignore reality.

FL and TX have already surpassed CA in terms of deaths/M and are rising at 3x the rate. They will soon each be higher than CA in total deaths with 1/2 the population or less. 200/day lost to Covid is not the same as NY but it is not pretty. Add 2000/ day who go home with heart, lung, kidney damage and stroke and things don't look so peachy in FL and TX. They are not over this and probably need to sit tight for a few weeks or risk exponential spread, blowing right by NY in total deaths.

" If not, there won't be any money for doctors or hospitals and you will be working for a token payment. "

I don't work for hospitals or doctors.

"Why do you ignore the current economic impact that is staggering?

Where are we going to be when cities and states file for bankruptcy? Without a change it will happen. Then where will we be? "

I don't ignore the economic impact. In fact, I try to remind folks that there is an economic impact that results from Covid-related morbidity and mortality. So th e mpact it is not just "deaths" and the devastation they cause in general.

We may see greater financial impact on governments at many levels without a change soon. But "opening everything up" on a knife switch may make matters worse, not better from an economic standpoint.

This is a complex situation.

"Going to be hard to sue a business over a covid infection and win. The person or persons went to that place of business on their own free will fully knowing the risk. "

I disagree. And others do as well which is why some have created new laws or seek the creation of new laws.

Again, and as an example:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/liability-shield-is-next-coronavirus-aid-battle-11588589100

I have never said we should be "opening everything up".

I said we have to use what we have learned to get back in track. How long can Cali last at 15% unemployment?

"Because the "others' harping on the high number of infections in places like Florida and Texas are allegedly medical professionals "

I guess these are "others" with which I am not familiar. And I do not know the definition of "harping." Would would I give a crap about that? Noise. Not signal.

As for the importance of looking at infection rates, I suggest you do some reading/learning in the public health space. Likely on-line courses. One of my consulting clients (he is in strategic consulting and venture capital) has an MPH. His wife is an MD, MPH. My client had an interesting several hour conversation with Dr. Fauci on a plane ride a year or so ago. But not about pandemics. Anyway, I speak with my client about the relationship between infection rates and morbidity, mortality and cost. We have both had high level statistics training, but even a smart 5th grader can understand this stuff... if their minds are open.

One of my close friends is an expert on vaccines (clinical evaluation), and she is married to a CEO of a vaccine company. Not gonna say which one. They certainly understand what is going on.

Like I have said, regarding economic impact, the picture is far bigger than what I see discussed in these forums.

Lots of business folk on the private side are thinking about a new future... for example in the strategy consulting biz:

https://www.innosight.com/insight/navigating-the-covid-19-disruption/

Need to ping their CEO soon... learn more about their biz.

The future will be different from the past.

If we "open everything up," will Ford, GM, Chrysler and the rest sell more cars? If Sweet Tomatoes hadn't shuttered, would people have shown up when restaurants were allowed to open (albeit at a lower capacity)?

This thread has the title "Sweden did it Wrong." I do not know whether that is true or not.

Heard part of an interesting Podcast today... Dr. Osterholm at CIDRAP. He has had some interesting things to say.

I am sure that like many other he gets death threats.

Why is that?

Sooner or later:

"I have never said we should be "opening everything up".

Others in this thread have. I referred to them/him.

You might find some of Osterholm's podcasts interesting.

And I agree, we should use what we have learned. Especially folks in gubmint leadership positions. I think most are doing so. Others, perhaps not.

This is a nasty sombeeech virus. It has created a host of challenges around the globe. And it ain't done yet.

"I guess these are "others" with which I am not familiar. And I do not know the definition of "harping." Would would I give a crap about that? Noise. Not signal."

If you're not familiar you should trying doing some reading. Pick the search engine of your preference and type in "medical experts call for new shutdowns". Tons of information if you're willing to go outside your sphere of influence and find information.

Don't know what harping means? Again... internet is a great tool. Or maybe you could ask one of your many influential contacts to explain it to you? Oh hell, I'll throw ya a bone.
Harping: talk or write persistently and tediously on (a particular topic)

If Sweden Did it wrong...

What country Did it right?

And HOW did they do it right?

Florida and Texas cases are down 30 to 40% from the peak. Arizona down about 70%.

I suspect that the "what works -what doesn't" conversations as it applies to containing Covid won't have clear answers until this thing subsides.

One thing I see happening is the changes wrought in American society going forward will rival the change in America from pre WW2 to postwar. Huge debts, societal upheaval, --you name it. All of the change was coming but give Covid credit for hastening and intensifying it

And unlike ww2 it appears at this juncture -the country post WWcovid will be much more divisive.
Though again every view of the future is through the glass darkly.

"If you're not familiar you should trying doing some reading. Pick the search engine of your preference and type in "medical experts call for new shutdowns". Tons of information if you're willing to go outside your sphere of influence and find information. "

I do not need to go outside of my sphere.

And again, Why would I give a crap about "others" and harping?

If you care about that, good for you.

"If the number of infections are in age groups that tend to survive this virus, why do infection rates matter? "

Sure, ask here. Don't ask public health experts. Even if you do, would you believe their responses even if you did not like them?

How do you know whom to believe" Isn't it easiest to just believe folks that say what you want to hear/believe?

Clearly you do.

S, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, probably had the most effective response. This is reflected in some of the lowest death/million rates anywhere in the world.

They recognized this pandemic for what it is very early because most had experience with SARS. They shut down travel very quickly, most donned masks early, and they got very aggressive with testing, contact tracing, and quarantine so they could identify clusters of infection, cut them off from the general population, and rapidly contain community spread. Acting quickly and aggressively allowed most of these to avoid a complete lockdown although most bars and large indoor gatherings were halted and a large percentage of the population worked from home.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-08-07/us-health-chief-to-visit-taiwan-a-covid-19-success-story
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-exemplar-south-korea

USA has too large of a spoiled-brat, self-entitled population to do that.

As a group we do have a bunch of rugged individualist cowboys who avoid cooperation with others as a matter of principle. This works against us in a pandemic allowing far more community spread, longer and deeper economic lockdowns, and more deaths.

Most of the countries who fared well in this pandemic are fiercely capitalist but they also had very high cooperation between government and private business. Lack of cooperation in the US at every level including the white house, congress, state governors, the CDC, school districts, and private business made a mess of things. As a result we are still getting our azz kicked by this thing while most of the EU and the pacific rim are over it.

Lack of cooperation has been our Achilles heel for many years now.