Pelican Pandemic Prediction Pool

[jyl]

Okay, let’s see what we think about all this, if we take all the emotion out of it and view it dispassionately.

You’re an alien in a spaceship, watching the third planet from the sun. The fleshy upright noise-making bug-ish things common on the planet appear to be having a little pandemic. You decide to start a spaceship “pandemic prediction pool” with other aliens.

To enter the pool, an alien (you) must make two predictions:

Prediction #1. How many bugs will die from the pandemic by the end of bug year 2020, on the whole planet?

Prediction #2. How many bugs will die from the pandemic by the end of bug year 2020, in the part of the planet called the “U S of A”?

You’re too lazy to count dead bugs yourself, so the official count #1 (planet) and #2 (U S of A) will be the Johns Hopkins Dead Bug counter at https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html as of noon EST on Bug Day 01/01/2021.

So, fellow aliens, enter the pool with your prediction #1 (planet) and prediction #2 (U S of A).

Rules:

1. Both prediction #1 and #2 must be placed, to enter the pool.

2. Each prediction must be a single integer. No ranges, no multiple choice, no formulas, and no weirdos with complex number answers.

3. Pool entries must be made by sending a PM to me (jyl) stating clearly your predictions #1 and #2. The PM is your official pool entry, and cannot be changed. You are encouraged to post your predictions, and whatever explanation of your thought process you’d like to share, in this thread for mutual education or to cleverly mislead others, but if you’d rather not, then you don’t have to. If you do post, your PM remains your official entry. If you do not post, your predictions will not be disclosed by me to anyone else until 01/01/2021.

4. Entries and predictions cannot be changed once placed. You can withdraw from the pool but cannot re-enter. You may enter the pool only once, and that entry will be the first of your PMs received by me.

5. Pool entries must be PM’d and received by me by end of day in the U S of A (defined as midnight EST) of 07/30/2020. Entries made later are invalid.

6. I will edit this thread to include a list of the aliens who have entered the pool, but not their predictions. If you don’t see yourself on the list, your entry was not received or invalid; contact me to sort it out.

7. The pool will have three winners. Which can be the same alien, if one be so fortunate.

8. Winner #1 will be the alien whose prediction #1 (planet deaths) is closest to 100% of the official count #1. To be clear: that means who has the lowest number for:
Absolute Value [ ( prediction #1 - official count #1) / official count #1 ].
Winner #1 will receive a prize of $50 USD. In case of ties, the alien who entered the pool first first will be the winner. If PM datestamp cannot break the tie, then there will be co-winners and they will share the prize equally.

9. Winner #2 will be the alien whose prediction #2 (U S of A deaths) is closest to 100% of the official count #2. To be clear: that means who has the lowest number for:
Absolute Value [ ( prediction #2 - official count #2) / official count #2 ].
Winner #2 will receive a prize of $50 USD. Same tie and co-winner rules as for winner #1.

10. Grand Winner will be the alien whose combined predictions #1 and #2 are closest to 100% of the official counts #1 and #2. To be clear: that means who has the lowest number for:
Absolute Value [ ( prediction #1 - official count #1) / official count #1 ] + Absolute Value [ ( prediction #2 - official count #2) / official count #2 ]
In other words, we're weighting the percentage difference equally for #1 and #2. Grand Winner will receive a prize of $100 USD. Same tie and co-winner rules as for winner #1.

11. I (jyl) am not eligible to receive a prize. Should I win, the prize will go to the runner-up(s).

12. No winner declared and no prizes paid if fewer than 30 have entered the pool.

13. Any ambiguity in these rules will be resolved by me; no appeals. I may make new rules to address loopholes.



There's all sorts of coronavirus death models out there, but most are trying to forecast the next month or two. Will be interesting to see predictions for the total year. How will the fleshy bugs make out?

[LEAKYSEALS951]

So many questions. like,
What do we look like? and just how many interplanetary systems accept the US dollar?

[Tobra]

Prediction?

[craigster59]

"Im going to go with Pscilosybe mushrooms spiked in the dinner salad for $500 Alex".....

[RSBob]

I can see betting on the numbers infected, but betting on deaths is a bridge too far. Good luck contestants.

[rusnak]

Originally Posted by Tobra

Prediction?

Haha! Great quote!

I would look at the pandemic probably as a good thing for those bugs, statistically speaking. It would make their gene pool more resistant. As one of those bugs, it would be an unwelcomed thing of course. Obviously this is not a popular opinion among pro-bug entities.

[jyl]

I think almost every pandemic decision that govts, investors, health systems are making right now amounts to predicting Covid death rate - and, given the economic consequences at stake, betting on it. Don’t see why we shouldn’t join in.

[tabs]

NONE because it is a fake pandemic...

[kach22i]

This thing isn't going to end at the end of 2020 and a virus does not see dates on calendars so I do not see the point of a prediction.

We do see how a country with 4-5 percent of the world's population can have 25-35 percent of reported cases.

And same country has 22 percent of world's prisoners under lock and key.

Kind of makes one wonder.