Stocks... will always go up, up, up! - Page 3

tabs · 08-26-2020, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wildthing

Just as a side note, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not representative of the overall market. S&P500 is usually quoted as "the market". the DJIA is made up of 30 stocks and is price weighted.

Over long periods - 10 years or more, the stock market goes up. It goes up two out of three years. So if you're not planning on touching your money in the next 5-7 years, leave it in the market.

That is why I always use the SP 500 in my missives as the benchmark gauge.

tabs · 08-26-2020, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aschen

I think anybody paying attention is and has been worried about irrational exuberence in the markets for a long time now.

The thing that sucks is what else are you going to do? I was tempted in earnest to "time the market" and pull alot out in the april timeframe. I have been conditioned not to do this by all the experts. It would have been a terrible move and Im thankful (for now) that I have stayed the course.

I wish I had more of an entrepreneurial spirit or had any real interest in being a landlord again. Because the only seemingly sensible way to invest currently is investing in your self and money making ventures where you control most of your destiny.

You have the heads up and are being as cautious as you can be in a situation that is fraught with risk..eventually it will catch up where the Equities will crash and burn..at that time you will have to accept that that part of the game is over..and consider that loss as part of the cost of doing business until that time. Then you have to enact part 2 of the plan.

RWebb · RWebb's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs

It is the moral and ethical responsibility of the WOKE to bring enlightenment to barbaric little monkeys who live in the absence of the light regardless of their ethnicity .
.

sure - but why are YOU posting?

KFC911 · 08-26-2020, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wildthing

Just as a side note, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not representative of the overall market. S&P500 is usually quoted as "the market". the DJIA is made up of 30 stocks and is price weighted.

No different than the S&P, just broader... though 500 stocks, the top 5 high fliers account for 20% of the index...

Without AAPL (2T mkt cap... really?)...and a few more...then whatcha got?

Now lets figure in GM, Enron, etc. in the current valuations....rut roh

trader220 · 08-26-2020, 07:58 PM

This market reminds me so much of the dot com era. Soooo many know nothing retail people sitting around trading and getting arrogant. They tell me I don't know anything and this is the new market where my old school strategies and skills don't apply. So many retail people buying pure garbage that has no chance of maintaining the levels they have been run up to. What's even funnies is some of the same name that were pure pump and dump plays 20 years ago are resurfacing, PLUG and FCEL are back to be pumped and dumped again.

I have seen this movie and I know how it ends. For many of them its not a pretty ending.

tabs · 05:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader220

This market reminds me so much of the dot com era. Soooo many know nothing retail people sitting around trading and getting arrogant. They tell me I don't know anything and this is the new market where my old school strategies and skills don't apply. So many retail people buying pure garbage that has no chance of maintaining the levels they have been run up to. What's even funnies is some of the same name that were pure pump and dump plays 20 years ago are resurfacing, PLUG and FCEL are back to be pumped and dumped again.

I ave seen this movie and I know how it ends.h For many of them its not a pretty ending.

Tulips...come to mind..

I sent CNBC early morning crew a missive on 6/25/20:

The value or potency of the juice/liquidity that the FED is providing in their interventions is diminishing the more that they print.

I imagine that one day the FED will have to intervene with a Trillion $$ in one day, and it will not stop the slide..

This will continue until the FED plays out it's string..

I think the FED has a real good idea of their limitations as to how much they can print. I surmise they can go to apx 9.5T on the balance sheet before it gets dicey.

The where it gets dicey limit in 2013 was 7T...per James Bullard.

Notice where they are at now...7T...

So they have some room to move if they have to...I don't think they want to red line the balance sheet. They wana keep some ammo in reserve.. Look where they wound up last time 4.3T

Fkin Congress better pass sumthin lest the Equity sheep get spooked..then things will get unglued again..

Nobody wants that to happen..

Every body looks at the charts, the stats and the numbers...as if that is the be all end all of the economy.. What they forget is the perceptions of the Herd..aka"the animal spirits" and the sentiment they derive from reading those numbers...

So if you put "human nature" into the equation you can get a pretty good idea of what is going to happen next.. after watching the beast for 30 years you get some idea of how it lives and breaths...you can get in sync with it... Most long tiemers don't even know they are doing it..they just get a feeling..

sammyg2 · 05:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trader220

This market reminds me so much of the dot com era. Soooo many know nothing retail people sitting around trading and getting arrogant. They tell me I don't know anything and this is the new market where my old school strategies and skills don't apply. So many retail people buying pure garbage that has no chance of maintaining the levels they have been run up to. What's even funnies is some of the same name that were pure pump and dump plays 20 years ago are resurfacing, PLUG and FCEL are back to be pumped and dumped again.

I have seen this movie and I know how it ends. For many of them its not a pretty ending.

You got that right.

Lots and lots of people are gonna get burned, again. Nothing new. They'll take a huge hit and ride it out, and eventually and gradually get most or all of it back. Even if it takes a decade.
The smart people will step out of the way of that speeding truck so they don't have to loose so much. That way they can ride the recovery and end up even better off than before.

The real tricky part is knowing how long to stay on the gravy train and not step out of the way too early or worse, too late.
I've already stepped out of the way for the most part, only have a few toes stuck out and it'll be easy to pull them back before they get run over.

Quoting a wise man on this forum:

Quote:

bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

tabs · 06:21 AM

Fear and Trepidation* has been driving force behind not just the economy but the world since GW came on the TV in 2008 and said, "We are in a melt down crisis."

The Rock of Gibraltar hegemonic power in the world since 1945 had cracked...that meant at the least that everything that people had counted on for decades had to be rethought if not thrown up into the air for grabs. Where chaos and fragmentation would reign supreme.

The foundation of one pessimistic forecast for the future has been based upon ones knowldege about "the animal spirits" and human nature. History is pro-log, Americans had been living in denial for decades that they were not as rich and prosperous as they had once been in the 1960's. To maintain their lifestyle and public policies Americans increasingly used the Credit card on a public and private basis. That Private Credit Card regime is what blew and created the crisis in 2008.

So is it any wonder that America didn't get the message and true to past behavior switched tanks and started using the Public Credit Card to maintain the illusion of being a "RICH NATION"as Barrack Obama was want to say. Now we find government spending is 50% of GDP. The FED's role was to facilitate government Credit Card use by stripping out the intrinsic value of the Worlds Reserve currency, the USD.... America has imposed a de facto tax on the world to support it's extravagant life style. Is it any wonder that America is less popular in the world today

Today with the CV Pandemic the Private economy has been virtually shutdown as is collapsing the economy as we move forward. The tsunami of BK's and credit defaults is coming. There have been no savings to tide America over in lean times, Americans have lived hand to mouth maintaining lifestyle for decades. The US economy has no resiliency built in as in previous times. The US and world find themsleves in a survival mode where it is left to the Government and Central Banks to provide economic support and stability. In this situation government and central banks have thrown caution to the wind, throwing the baby out with the bath water to back stop the collapse and ensuing panic. There is no tomorrow for them. The choice is stark support through printing and borrowing or collapse.

In the best case scenario the US in particular will become a Quasi Nationalized Zombie Subsistence Economy at worst it there will be a collapse of civilization with an ensuing New Dark Age. The US in particular is in the process of becoming unglued political society with economic morbidity being the central theme which exacerbates.

As with the fall of all civilizations before, they had become their own worst enemy. Forgetting the principles that made them successful, essentially becoming victims of their own success. They in the past and we have become arrogant in our belief they we need not temper our behavior to meet the exigencies of the situation for we have become a "RICH NATION" where consequences don't matter anymore.

*The Greed portion of the equation has been manic in nature as it is based upon that fear and trepidation..

Sooner or later · 08-27-2020, 06:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Thread title is like a Bat Signal to Tabs.

Ha!

tabs · 07:03 AM

BUT BUT SAMMY you have proved you are not very smart...

You don't get it they have killed us all.. there is no escape for anybody..

What you do not get is the insidious nature of the FED's stripping out the intrinsic value of the USD...it is a WMD...it wipes everything out..

You own a 2T market cap company whose stock becomes valueless because the currency has no value. Sure it is still 2T but of what? It is 2t of nothing...zero is zero..

Not only that but if that happens and all currencies collapse what happens to sales of that companies product? The the economy is gone evaporated as people have nothing with which to buy the product..the company has no sales, employees are laid off and the company has no reason to exist. they are gone to.

Further many companies are heavily leverage so that their balance sheets are sero...can not meet debt service because of declining sales the company evaporates into thin air

Do you get the fkin idea..

Gold and Silver are tangible proven to be money assets for thousand and thousands of years...there will be reversion to that mean.

The whole pyramid structure of financial instruments of the modern Global Economy is collapsing...it will be back to basics of Gold and Silver..

They may even push a reset button...pegged to every 50K you have in cash you get 1 oz of Gold.. That is the ratio of Gold to USD's in the world.

tabs · 08-27-2020, 07:22 AM

All you Boyz see is the illusion of paper USD bills..you think they have intrinsic value..and you chase them and their dominated in financial assets. Thinking that you really have something..

But the big switcharoo has been been happening since 2008..to keep that illusion of really having some worth and comfortable life style alive they have been stripping out the intrinsic value of that paper money and financial instruments. Which includes RE..it has a deed, mort payment, and tax assessment and if commercial who is going to be your tenet...When nobody has any money of value who can purchase your farm..your solace is you can live on it...

Every nation and CB has been doing it in a race to the bottom..

The big wave that is coming are the CMB's defaulting...with all the brick and mortar store closing and eviction of tenants coming.

tabs · 08-27-2020, 07:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by red 928

I've humored you for entertainment value long enough.
Your boorish pomp and sense of false-intellect is really wearing thin.
You've been saying the same bull**** for 10 years, and it is as wrong today as it was the first day.

Yes it will eventually come PARTIALLY true, if you keep spouting it long enough. But it has and always will be wrong much More than it will ever be true.

If you can not tell me where I have gone wrong with a rational then your statement has no veracity nor credibility. You are just another BS naysayer..Now shove off...

NoRush993/951 · 08-28-2020, 08:12 PM

Always good to keep John Exter's golden triangle principles in mind and learn more about it if not familiar with it already.

Ever since Nixon removed the money (gold) from the monetary system, we have used irredeemable credit as if it were money. Whatever its virtues real or imagined, irredeemable credit cannot perform one key function performed by money. It cannot extinguish a debt. When you pay a debt using a credit, you merely shift the debt. This debt necessarily grows exponentially. The system is unsound because it breeds debt, not because of rising prices.

NoRush993/951 · 08-28-2020, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MBAtarga

I'm looking for the next "sure thing"

Copper. Think green, think electric - lots and lots of copper.

p911dad · p911dad's Garage

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs

That does seem to the Conventional Wisdom that has been more or less correct over the preceding decades. There have been a number of things that the Conventional Wisdom seems to think that have not exactly worked out over the last decade. Namely that large stimulus would result in the economy getting back on it's legs where it would be bizness as usual, and that large increases in Monetary supply would result in inflation. Neither has come true. The Equity markets falling off a cliff in 2018 dissuaded the former notion and not being able to get to the target inflation rate made the later into a lie.

Equities will go up until they don't.

I take a view of the landscape from a different perspective. Since so much of the CW seems to be turned topsy turvy when gauging it from the current CW one has to think what is wrong with this perspective. It is only when you start to think, "HEY there is a different Paradigm at work here, then it all does start to make sense."

Even the lack of the Genius's not catching on, where they continue to try the same CW over and over again thinking the results will be different this time makes sense. that mindset is all part of the new paradigms process...

Powell speaks on Thursday, where one suspects his statements will be well received by the Wall Street Squirrels...

Then there will probably be Stimulus 2.0 by Congress...it does not bode well if you have people going hungry and becoming homeless.

All should be well in the Garden till the election results are in...

At some point the US credit rating is going to be downgraded.. Debt creation is far exceeding tax revenues.. There are rumblings at FITCH already. So far there has been an air of forgiveness as the economic crisis brought on by the CV is creating extraordinary measures.. Sooner or later that forgiveness wears thin.

It is really hilarious though that none of you notice the water sloshing around your ankles...

Check out "The Mandibles: A family 2029 - 2047" by Lionel Schriver. In this book all your worst dreams come true for America (maybe you have already read it).