THREE people

THREE out of millions have tested positive to the China virus twice.

And with high false positives (including other cold /corona virus detection) I am surprised it is not more than 3.


We need a number to go along with "limited immunity"

Is this vaccine producing less immunity that contracting the virus?

I have heard from a vaccine company C-Level professional in a public domain meeting that the US might start with just one vaccine if more than one passes muster. Her company is not part of OWS but is developing/evaluation another candidate.

In that same meeting I got some perspective on what FDA is up to with OWS safety and efficacy assessment/evaluation-- pretty straightforward.

Back in the day when I worked for Thomas' bakeries we flash froze the goods at -50F. -94 is damn cold!!

I've mentioned this in other threads, but after broad vaccination is underway, I think the risk to the unvaccinated may be even higher than now.

The reason is that I think social distancing measures will get dialed back, restaurants and bars and offices and theaters will be opened, people will be packing into them with fewer masks.

The vaccines do not seem to be "sterilizing", meaning they don't prevent a person from getting infected in the upper respiratory tract, they just prevent most (90%?) of those infections from becoming symptomatic or serious. That is from animal (monkey) data, the data in humans will be very closely watched. If that proves true in humans, it suggests vaccinated persons may still be able to contract and transmit the virus. While they themselves will be mostly protected, unvaccinated persons in the same bar, bus, office, etc will not be.

Put another way, I am not sure how herd immunity levels are calculated if vaccinated persons are still able to contract and transmit the virus to each other and to the unvaccinated.

Note that therapeutic development has, so far, lagged vaccine development.

All this is my speculation.

Just watched the 60 minutes piece-- very informative and inspirational and well done.

Many people are clearly working very hard, with military, fed regulatory and industry, et cetera working as a team.

Of course public health leadership will factor in as well-- with guidance about how the increasing pool of vaccinated individuals and "relaxing" of public health measures an work together as optimally as possible over time.

2H 2021 is going to be very interesting.

"I am not sure how herd immunity levels are calculated if vaccinated persons are still able to contract and transmit the virus to each other and to the unvaccinated."

I am not sure as well. But I am pretty confident that there is plenty of US expertise engaged in sorting all of this out. Everyone wants the same thing.

And as Buck T. says: "we must not allow a mineshaft gap."

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03166-8

More good news:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/novavax-wins-fda-fast-track-designation-for-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-2020-11-09

Pedaling as fast as they can. With diligence.

Let's see if their timeline holds. Hopefully this and many other candidates will come through the process and help on a global scale.

It actually does NOT change every cell in the human body. Stick to real experts.

The problem with vaccines is not how effective they are but how many die or get sick from it due to the side effects which is universal in this case.

Good article.

I’m not concerned about duration of protection. I mean, longer is better. But we can redose every six months if needed, until a better (gen 2) vaccine comes along. And redosing means more revenue ...

Reduction of transmission and efficacy in elderly seem really key. You could imagine a combination (little of either) that would leave older persons behind, as the rest of America goes back to life as normal or close to it. There’s some industries that focus on an older demographic (cruise lines being obvious one) that might live or die on this. However, some of the other vaccines have data in the elderly that looks pretty promising. We’re going to have multiple vaccines available in just a few months, and some may be better than Pfizer’s.

I did a back of envelope, 300 MM popln, 30% refuse vax, 70% get vax, vax 90% effective in those, 30% of the refuse vax + vax ineffective group get infected in 2021, 5% of those hospitalized. Implies still lots of ppl who will really need better therapeutics to be developed. Probably more than manufacturing capacity in 2021. I mention this because all the therapeutics names are down hard today, it’s a knee jerk overreaction in my view.

The 30% is high but not crazy. Somewhere around 20% of Americans will have been infected by the time 2020 ends, and that’s with social distancing. If we drop social distancing efforts, as I suspect we will in 1H2021, and there’s little reduction of transmission from a vaccine, then why couldn’t you see the virus R revert to 3 or 5 as it rips through the rest of America? I suspect that sympathy for vax refusers will be limited, like not enough for the vaxed to close their businesses or wear masks to protect the refusers. Sort of a “serves them right” mentality.

Pfizer saw an infection rate of about 0.43% per month in placebo arm, that is what the limited data available today suggests. That’s about 5-6% per year. People who sign up for a vaccine trial are very likely on the cautious side, they obviously don’t think Covid is a hoax, are probably not going to Sturgis and other super spreading events, and even in the virus hotspots there was some social distancing being done. Getting from 5-6% to 30% doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch.

I expect manufacturing capacity to increase under the Defense Production Act, starting in January

Interesting find but only good for 24 hours. easy to store and cheap though.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninashapiro/2020/11/06/ferrets-receive-nasal-spray-to-successfully-prevent-covid-19/?sh=e8c5bc82e896

The caution is warranted.

Gene therapy is not exactly known for its wild successes.

Next time I die after getting a vaccine. I'll make sure to file a grievance.

Interesting. I expect it to increase the moment a vaccine receives EUA. But hey! Maybe we can get GM to start making vaccines too?

I feel fine...

The ghost of Red Beard has spoken!!

Can you still use your pool when you're in ghostly form?

yeah!

The grievance would be a waste of time since these will be administered under a blanket immunity.