Bitcoin crash coming?

[Roswell]

No, it means you have done very well. Congratulations!!

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by ShopCat

I've already shared a site with a large map of places that accept bitcoin, from normal everyday goods to concert and pro sports tickets.

I went back through all your posts on this thread, and I could not find the link that you refer to. Can you please post it again?

-Wayne

[cstreit]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

The comparison to gold is a classic straw man argument. The energy consumption, lack of utility, and classic pattern of a multi-level marketing system cannot be reconciled by Bitcoin investors, so there is a common technique to deflect away by using a comparison to gold. It's all an MLM scheme / system right now that is attracting all of the "quick money" investors, plain and simple. Nothing wrong with that, I just prefer to call it like it is.

If Bitcoin were 100% stable and moved maybe 2-3% per year, I'd be willing to bet that most everyone who was "in Bitcoin" right now would not maintain their position.

-Wayne

Wayne, legitimate question. What is the difference between Bitcoin and the USD other than familiarity of the masses?



Side note: The only reason BTc is a high energy consumption coin is because it was designed to be self limiting. If it wasn’t for all the ridiculous speculation it would be impossible to mine for profit and it would stop.

So the people responsible for the high energy use are the people driving prices into the stratosphere.

[ShopCat]

https://map.bitcoin.com/

You have to sort through the crap a little, as they list all the restauraunts that take online payments in crypto through a service, which doesnt really count in my eyes. But there are a lot of places that take payment through their coinbase commerce accounts too.

[Wayne 962]

I see a locksmith in my neighborhood, and Papa John's (but you can't order it through their website - you have to use something external called "menufy"). But again, I will argue that no one actually uses it for any practical use, and as exhibit A, I present the following:

[ShopCat]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

I see a locksmith in my neighborhood, and Papa John's (but you can't order it through their website - you have to use something external called "menufy"). But again, I will argue that no one actually uses it for any practical use, and as exhibit A, I present the following:

Its mania right now, 90% of the history of bitcoin the fees have been small, as in like 30 to 50 cents, and there are side chains like lightning network to fix fees and tx time

[Wayne 962]

There's this - the transaction time required - those times are in minutes, so 300 minutes is 5 hours of course. Even the fastest (highest cost per transaction) has a range of 0-30 min. That seems a bit excessive for practical everyday use?

I'm sure no one remembers what I said earlier on this thread, so I will repeat it again. I think there is definitely a future for crypto currencies. I believe that Bitcoin is version 1.0.0, and has made major strides in acceptance and mainstreaming. Based upon it's (many) technical limitations (amongst them the *huge* energy cost of production), I do not think it will obtain widespread adoption and will, one day in the future, eventually die out.

Although I have not personally researched the current 1,000 or more crypto coins available for a perfect solution, I do believe that there is, or will be something that comes along that fixes many of these problems. For example, you do not need to have a hash / mining algorithm that requires a lot of energy / processing power if you have a time-based limiter on the mining process. Also, the speed of the blockchain is slow compared to conventional methods of payment (credit cards or PayPal, for example, which are routed through a central clearinghouse). I think it will be difficult for cryptos to take off in widespread use until some of these issues are solved?

-Wayne

[cstreit]

Transaction fees to move in an out of secure wallets are the biggest sticking point, I grant you that.

...but folding cash in online vaults don’t cost lthat. I pay 2.50 to get cash out of the atm but $1.00 to make a Btc transaction out of my coinbase account.

[Aurel]

Elon Musk argument for dropping Bitcoin is that it uses too much energy to mine, therefore increases CO2 emissions.
Kinda makes sense, when one makes cars to reduce CO2 emissions. Those dirty coal fired power plants powering all those PCs better be charging Tesla batteries instead .

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by cstreit

Transaction fees to move in an out of secure wallets are the biggest sticking point, I grant you that.

...but folding cash in online vaults don’t cost lthat. I pay 2.50 to get cash out of the atm but $1.00 to make a Btc transaction out of my coinbase account.

Right, I get that, but Coinbase is to Bitcoin as PayPal is to dollars and Euros. When you send someone funds with PayPal, they don't actually transfer dollars or Euros - the reconcile internally - just like Coinbase does. I.E Coinbase is extremely similar to PayPal? I'm just curious, if holding Bitcoin in something like Coinbase, how is that different than holding US dollars or Euros in a PayPal account? The only advantage/difference I can see is that one capitalizes on the speculative appreciation of the crypto currency? Nothing wrong with that and all the power to people risking and investing in it - if they succeed, then I'm happy for them - that is what makes capitalism great. But, then all of the discussion about how Bitcoin is the next best thing and all of its built-in advantages - those seem to be negated by the fact that Coinbase is used as an intermediary?

Don't know. Again, I think the future holds something more advanced than Bitcoin 1.0.0.

-Wayne

[john70t]

Originally Posted by cstreit

Side note: The only reason BTc is a high energy consumption coin is because it was designed to be self limiting. If it wasn’t for all the ridiculous speculation it would be impossible to mine for profit and it would stop.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bitcoin-mining-energy-consumption/
Bitcoin mining uses more electricity than 159 individual countries -- including more than Ireland or Nigeria.

It went from an alternative exchange platform and tax dodge to a massive pyramid scheme. So why wasn't Bitcoin shut down immediately by the Fed or IRS? I suspect the big players and banks are invested, and they will quietly sell off their gains over time if the USD remains stable. If the dollar falters they will exchange it into any real currency that is making gains. It's a no-lose situation.

[island911]

Originally Posted by biosurfer1

Just because you keep saying it's a strawman argument, doesn't make it true. It is a completely valid argument/comparison. Just look at your posts:

Gold has very little utility for 99.99% of the world's population. ...

That is ridiculous.

"62.07% of people (4.88 Billion) own mobile phones today" (Source: https://www.bankmycell.com/blog/how-many-phones-are-in-the-world)

For ONE example.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by Aurel

Elon Musk argument for dropping Bitcoin is that it uses too much energy to mine, therefore increases CO2 emissions.
Kinda makes sense, when one makes cars to reduce CO2 emissions. Those dirty coal fired power plants powering all those PCs better be charging Tesla batteries instead .

Musk is transparent, simple and predictable.

The ONLY reason tesla has ever shown any profit was because of California's carbon credit tax system.
They give him credits that he doesn't need, and tell other companies they need them but don't get enough.
That means that other companies have to BUY the free carbon credits from tesla for cubic $$$$ and that is enough for them to be profitable (barely).
Of course he tricked the chinese into paying him to build factories there too but that's a whole 'nuther scam.

And now ... he's pissed in his California cheerios by moving some of his stuff elsewhere like baja oklahoma.

Here comes the predictable part:
His next step will be all over the media calling for national cap and trade so he can get free tax credits from the fed gubmint even if he ain't in kalifornia.
You watch. He'll be the friggin poster child fer it.

And he knows that accepting bitcoins flies in the face of all that so he has to distance his company to look good to the greeniots.
But ya notice he isn't getting rid of the pyramids he is already holding, nooooo!

Predictable and he'll get richer, and you (we) will end up footing the bill again as gas and electricity and natural gas and everything else gets more 'spensive.

And the greeniots and muskateers will cheer and sing and be soo happy that they pulled off something dumb again. Yay.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

Musk is transparent, simple and predictable.

The ONLY reason tesla has ever shown any profit was because of California's carbon credit tax system.
They give him credits that he doesn't need, and tell other companies they need them but don't get enough.
That means that other companies have to BUY the free carbon credits from tesla for cubic $$$$ and that is enough for them to be profitable (barely).
Of course he tricked the chinese into paying him to build factories there too but that's a whole 'nuther scam.

And now ... he's pissed in his California cheerios by moving some of his stuff elsewhere like baja oklahoma.

Here comes the predictable part:
His next step will be all over the media calling for national cap and trade so he can get free tax credits from the fed gubmint even if he ain't in kalifornia.
You watch. He'll be the friggin poster child fer it.

And he knows that accepting bitcoins flies in the face of all that so he has to distance his company to look good to the greeniots.
But ya notice he isn't getting rid of the pyramids he is already holding, nooooo!

Predictable and he'll get richer, and you (we) will end up footing the bill again as gas and electricity and natural gas and everything else gets more 'spensive.

And the greeniots and muskateers will cheer and sing and be soo happy that they pulled off something dumb again. Yay.

A corrupt nation running on a cynical scam.

Mericans are not wearing the white hats no more...

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

Right, I get that, but Coinbase is to Bitcoin as PayPal is to dollars and Euros. When you send someone funds with PayPal, they don't actually transfer dollars or Euros - the reconcile internally - just like Coinbase does. I.E Coinbase is extremely similar to PayPal? I'm just curious, if holding Bitcoin in something like Coinbase, how is that different than holding US dollars or Euros in a PayPal account? The only advantage/difference I can see is that one capitalizes on the speculative appreciation of the crypto currency? Nothing wrong with that and all the power to people risking and investing in it - if they succeed, then I'm happy for them - that is what makes capitalism great. But, then all of the discussion about how Bitcoin is the next best thing and all of its built-in advantages - those seem to be negated by the fact that Coinbase is used as an intermediary?

Don't know. Again, I think the future holds something more advanced than Bitcoin 1.0.0.

-Wayne

You are playing with your erector set again.

Your analytic gets caught up in the minutia of the visceral reality. Look deeper into the primal causation of human behavior. Staying superficial keeps one from looking into the abyss..where one finds oneself staring at a barbaric little monkey with pretensions of being civilized in the mirror.

Push comes to shove Bit Coin doesn't even amount to a joke..it is a pretense..a fiction, an illusion or as Elan said on SNL a HUSTLE.

Give me sumthin TANGIBLE..that I can hold in my hands..



When the Guber mints passed the 1.9T Merican Recovery Act the USD WOBBLED...that is the core reality..people got spooked and started looking for an exit from the USD. Put that in your fkin bank as a core reality..

Let us deal in core realities and not this superficial visceral crapola...

Everybody is scared shyteless..and are run running around like ants on a hot tin plate looking for an island of safety..it is maniac behavior..there is no safety, you is along for the E ticket ride at Disneyland..

Don't you Boyz get it..You already have lost everything. There is no viable alternative to the hegemonic USD. Nothing can take it's place, and as such the Global economy of scale without that foundation of the USD is moribund.

Since 08 the rug has been pulled out from under you and every conventional wisdom in your bag of tricks.. It is in payment of 50 years of fiscal and monetary excess...and the dum fks say, "We can afford it..." Why do you think that evey trick in the bag has failed? And you are seriously contemplating Bit Coin.


It took roughly 160 years to build the trust in the USD to make it globally hegemonic. Solid as the Rock of Gibralter..and 50 years to fk it away. You are living in a BK nation and BK world and you ain't facin the facts that are staring you right in the face. You gots this delusion of Bit Coin...

The Chinese have been lookin to get away from the USD since 09.. the rest of the world is now starting to unload...the day that become a deluge is the day the illusion of being wealthy evaporates and you are plunged into abject poverty. one and all.

It is not a date and time situation, but when the process gets to a point..a time is an arbitrary notion..or as some have pointed out a Swiss confidence game.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by tabs

You are playing with your erector set again.

The joke (or insult) only works if I actually get it. I don't speak fluid Tabulish.

-Wayne

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

The joke (or insult) only works if I actually get it. I don't speak fluid Tabulish.

-Wayne

U have an engineering degree..In other words you are playing with your numbers again..

[tabs]

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-politics-religion/734011-adverse-shift.html

An Adverse Shift

Starting with the Financial Crisis in 2008 the United States Treasury embarked on a policy of massive deficit spending resulting in a now 6T USD increase in it's debt level, brining the upfront debt to roughly 16.5T USD. The Federal Reserve on the monetary front lowered interest rates and instituted a number of Quanatative Easings to increase the liquidity of the financial system in order to at first stabilize the system and then to promote economic growth in that system. The increase of liquidity to the system through Federal Reserve purchases of US debt instruments is roughly 3T USD. In September of 2012 the Federal Reserve embarked on OE3 whose tenents included the purchase of 85B a month in US debt instruments and mortgage backed securities with an open ended time frame of the US economy having a 6.5% unemployment rate.

What the concern in this is are the dislocations that these policies have caused in the stability of the global economy and the attendant political, social and cultural strata. Here one can postulate that as US debt levels climb, it destabilizes the above mentioned strata. This is because of several factors which include that the United States is the largest economy in a globally intertwined economy and that the USD is the Reserve Currency of the World. Being the Reserve Currency for the world means that every nation must hold reserves of USD in order to purchase oil. Further the USD being not only the Reserve currency but having a 200 year history of being a stable and thus responsible currency has made it the favored currency to be held by private concerns and individuals. This has been especially true in times of distress either globally or on a foreign national level. This has recently been a factor in the USD strength in the past several years as there has been a flight to the USD and US debt instruments in the face of a potential meltdown of the European Union due to the amount of leverage it has incurred and its slow response to rectifying it's problems.

However with the "unlimited" nature of both the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserves recent QE programs which for all intents and purposes means an unlimited printing of money to purchase sovereign debt, dislocations in the various economies are now beginning to appear which is resulting in their currencies seeking a new equilibrium. This is caused by a defacto devaluation of the large amount of USD being held either by foreign governments, held by private concerns or individuals which then puts pressure on those local economies. Further the real danger lies in the fact that as the USD becomes evermore diluted/devalued/debased those foreign holders of USDs will feel increasing pressure to divest themselves of those USDs or face continued pressure on their economies. Or going beyond this as Y. Aksoy and T Piskovski state in the conclusion of their paper "Foreign Holders of Dollars And The Information Value Of US Monetary Aggregates,"

"That if the leading role of US dollar as an international currency will be challenged by longterm
adverse shifts in the preferences of the foreign holders, the US Federal Reserve may face serious
obstacles in the conduct of monetary policy to stabilize the US macroeconomic environment."

Thus in conclusion the Federal Reserves recent "unlimited" QE program has the potential unintended consequence of being a WMD which could create an economic tsunami that would sweep the world with catastrophic consequences./...TABS 2/13/13

[tabs]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/11/stanley-druckenmiller-says-the-fed-is-endangering-the-dollars-global-reserve-status.html

Sound errily familar...

Druckenmiller as a guest on CNBC has read at least one of my missives to CNBC in real air time

[tabs]

The conclusion that I draw from you Boyz rhetorical perceptions is that you almost to the man believe that MMT actually works...your behaviors certainly indicates that to be the case.

that the sky is without limit nor consequence.

I find it pointless to discuss the mechanism or process by which the system is devolving. It is a closed book. A done deal..what is worthy of commentary is the perceptional and behavioral causation of the schism between reality and delusion that is being manifested by individuals, society and nation states.