COVID cases falling dramatically
 

For about the last 3 weeks the number of new cases has been falling like a rock. Only a tiny % have received full inoculation and testing level continues. Posting in OT to avoid politics if possible. I’ve also read that hospitalizations are declining while deaths remain high, it appears a downward trend is beginning also.

Is there a reasonable explanation?

Joe O'biden is the reason for all things good now.

Deaths are also falling. Down from nearly 3500 (7 day moving avg) to just over 2500. Lower testing (more resources into vaccinations) A lot of immunity with past infections. A large percentage of the at risk population has been inoculated (nursing homes nearly complete) and deep into the 65 and over in many states.

We're finally seeing a drop in cases here in So Cal.

Our problem is vaccine shortage, they've had to shut down the large centers like Dodger Stadium, Magic Mtn and Lincoln Heights.

Hopefully it gets rolling again soon, there's no new vaccinations. They're saving supply for people who need the second shot.

Covid is yesterdays news since November 6th.

Lower testing? Have to disagree. Where testing was limited early on, you can get tested almost anywhere now. The number of people who have received both shots and the 3 weeks needed afterward to achieve immunity is very small as compared to the overall population.

Although I did see that the new administration has said they are "Starting from scratch" to blame away the distribution problems.

Oh, of course. When Trumpster can blamed it is of course news. Covid? Not so much since the Cuomo dead camps have come to light.

We have gone from the MSM in full panic to...

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JMO - Millions of people have had it but were asymptomatic and never reported and now have antibodies. It's possible that it is run it's course.

They are frigging stupid to be saving for 2nd doses. As long as supply is growing or stable their will always be enough available for 2nd doses. And supply is steadily growing. Stick everything in arms. If you have a 100,000 doses available and 90,000 needing 2nd doses you do 10,000 1st doses from this weeks supply.

Data from yesterday showed Cali at 72% of available doses in arms (320,000 doses not in arms) . WV is at 97%. Oklahoma at 84%

You didn't see where they got caught lying about that?

in my area they made it standard practice. They were smart and moved resources from testing to vaccinations. Every additional vaccination is worth 50 stinking tests.

The last 3 days we administered 6.5 million doses. The same 3 day period 2 weeks ago it was 4.2 million.

holidays are over.

pretty obvious. cases go up when folks get together, indoors, without masks or distancing. deaths follow ~2 weeks later.

Christmas and Thanksgiving big in India too?

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1613406943.jpg

What distribution process ?

Must be hidden away in the pages of the tRump healthcare plan

Remember...Best ever...

The distribution plan is well documented.

Also, this isn't parf.

Don't care about the why... just glad to see numbers coming down.

Zig... keep your obsession in PARF little guy.

Yes - natures way

Christmas is big everywhere. Diwali is mid-November. The more you know.

I talked with my friends in Mumbai and Chennai and they said COVID cases are down because India had to switch over to low-band 5G. Running mmW high-band 5G is very expensive and Soros didn't want to fund it anymore.

So cases have fallen dramatically in India because Christmas and Diwali is over?
Seems so simple and “obvious” (as cocker says). Scientists must be easily puzzled.

So, what one can take away from this thread is....it’s a miracle.

Nothing else makes sense. Let’s hope it keeps falling.

Whatever the reason, it's great news. The following explanation makes as much sense as anything to me, between vaccinated people and people w antibodies, it's running out of hosts?

Any time there is a big change in a stat make a check to see if any changes were made to the accounting method. Be it testing standard, or anything else.

What happened in the middle ages with the plague? how about the 1918 flu? Did they beat it with vaccinations and testing? These things run their course

With Covid, check the politics of the numbers first, who is reporting what then, go to the second and third level numbers.

This has been, unfortunately, a complete political numbers game from the start.

I stopped caring about the numbers in May they were so corrupt, read a lot about past pandemics and know we have another 8 months or so for the slice of the population this CV adores percentage-wise until things resolve into a manageable CV.

It is not what people think.

Edit: Posted before I saw gregpark's post: Yup.

The Covid scare factor, and MSM constant reports of everything Trump did wrong, ran it's course, and ended January 20th when the final Globalism piece was placed in the puzzle !

What happened? People died. The plague killed off a quarter or more of Europe's population. The same rate of deaths from 1918 to today would be over 2 million.

I guess we did an amazing job then. SmileWavy

Yes. Look at MERS and SARS.

Human Coronavirus Types

Scientists have divided coronaviruses into four sub-groupings, called alpha, beta, gamma, and delta. Seven of these viruses can infect people:

229E (alpha)
NL63 (alpha)
OC43 (beta)
HKU1 (beta
MERS-CoV, a beta virus that causes Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)
SARS-CoV, a beta virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19

It's because we finally had stringent lockdowns and mask wearing. /end green

Viruses run a course. 'Tis what they do. Every year. The human immune system is a thing of wonder. Covid19 was not The One.

But if you watch the news, we should stay scared, because mutation...

2020 will be remembered as a period of global mass hysteria and failed policy. *


*With full respect and sympathy to those that perished and/or had conditions that made them high risk. May our leaders (and news organizations) do a better job in the future. We all deserve much better than the ***** show we've lived the past year.

The 1918 flu killed 50 million, a third of the world's population then. That would equate to 2 billion today. The covid19 pandemic pales in comparison to the 1918 pandemic Not enough people have been vaccinated yet for covid19 to explain the drop in infections or deaths. I think it requires 70 or 80 percent to be vaccinated before showing effectiveness? Maybe it's run its course naturally .

My 2 million number was for the US alone.

It has to have an R0 below a 1 to decrease spread.

Social distancing and masking drops the R by some amount.
The number of people infected with immunity drops it some more.
Current vaccinations drop it by an additional amount. (At least 10% of the population has had at least 1 dose)

Add those three together and the R is less than 1. Spread decreases.

FYI Something is off with your math there, US population alone in 1918 was over 100 million.

This graphic is the whole thread... it's great that the cases are plummeting and this is worth celebrating, but we should also contextualize: they have plummeted back down to where they were at the end of October, which at that point was an all time high after over 7 months of pandemic in the USA. So, good news that cases are heading down so dramatically but the real story IMHO is that cases spiked so dramatically beginning in October and extending through the holidays. I'm thankful that so many of the most at-risk in our population have now received at least one shot with many (like my own parents) having received two.

The numbers suggest that's not even close to happening. Herd immunity is a long way off.

https://i0.wp.com/media3.giphy.com/m...iphy.gif?ssl=1

Didn't you know COVID was last year's news? This is hardly an issue now that leadership has changed.

50M deaths, 500M infections world wide 1918
you're right, 1.8 billion world population in 1918
2M deaths world wide covid19, close to 7B Pop.

keep your obsession in PARF little guy.

keep your obsession in PARF little guy.