So, did the heavy lockdown states end up doing better than the free states?

[McLovin]

Did the predictions of the COVID “mass murderer” Neanderthal governors of states like Texas, Florida, South Dakota, etc. end up coming true, and the governors of states like California, New York, Michigan turn out to be life saving heroes with the massive lockdowns?
I don’t follow any of these things anymore. So IDK.

[Norm K]

Originally Posted by McLovin

I don’t follow any of these things anymore. So IDK.

And I predict you won't be following this thread for long in PPOT.

_

[911boost]

Well I’d say calling certain Governors “Neanderthals” pretty much sums up what you want this thread to prove to you.

Way to not be biased for not knowing anything, as you said.

[Crowbob]

Well MI was #1 in draconian lockdown measures and is now #1 in new infections.

Might be an anomaly, though.

Either way, Fraü Whitmer appears to be very reluctant to re-impose her benevolent fascism. My guess is she has begun her reelection campaign so is once again hiding her megalomaniacal self.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by 911boost

Well I’d say calling certain Governors “Neanderthals” pretty much sums up what you want this thread to prove to you.

Way to not be biased for not knowing anything, as you said.

It’s The Neanderthals v. The Dictators.
So we’re even.

[kach22i]

It just might be a case of failing the Marshmallow Test.

April 13th 2021
Oh, Canada, you failed the marshmallow test
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/04/13/opinion/canada-failing-covid-19-marshmallow-test

In 1972, a team of psychologists led by Stanford University’s Walter Mischel turned a bag of marshmallows into one of the most influential pieces of social science research in American history. The experiment was simple: they put a single marshmallow in front of a child, told them they could have a second one if they waited 15 minutes before eating the first and left the room. Over time, their research showed that kids who were able to delay their gratification had better outcomes in life on everything from SAT scores to their body mass index.

After more than a year of dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s become increasingly clear many Canadians are failing their own version of the marshmallow test...........

We can have all the laws on the book we want, but if people don't follow them, not only do we not get a second marshmallow, we might get Covid-19 and die.

When this pandemic is over, we ought to make time for a reckoning with our inability to wait for that second metaphorical marshmallow. The refusal of large numbers of people to trade long-term benefits for short-term conveniences doesn’t augur well for our shared future. Neither does their susceptibility to lies being peddled by those who put their own freedoms ahead of the safety and security of others.

I found this information below on actual compliance with Covid-19 precautions including lock-downs, the whole USA gets a failing grade, except the state of Vermont.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

D-

In the past there has been some discussion on how some states report their statistics verses others, and how when the data gets imputed into the system it may create an artificial dip and or peak/spike. The latest article I found on it was out of date, but showed a lot of differences. I'm not sure if a national standard is being followed, if not then it's an apples to oranges comparison.

[McLovin]

That’s racist.

[Sooner or later]

Crows understand the marshmallow test.

[Crowbob]

‘Dictators’ is descriptive. ‘Neanderthals’ is insulting.

[Tervuren]

Originally Posted by 911boost

Well I’d say calling certain Governors “Neanderthals” pretty much sums up what you want this thread to prove to you.

Way to not be biased for not knowing anything, as you said.

I think he was using the words of someone else that painted a very bleak picture for what would happen in those states.

The projections they made, the many Brazillions of dead and injured, etc....
How does hindsight compare to those predictions that those using that word made.

And secondly, maybe Neanderthals were the smart ones.
So much about Neadnerthals has been revised time and time again.
My mom was a teacher, s I've been able to read multi-decades of materials on the same subject to see how a wrong view point is taught, replaced with another wrong viewpoint, then information came out that made that wrong view piont have to go, and another wrong view point took its place, repeat, repeat....

We know a lot less than we try to seem.

[manbridge 74]

Kind of like the 911 bubble bursting, the pandemic was never really wide scale in scope.

[911boost]

Got it Mclovin.

I have no clue what the data says, but would be curious to see a neutral parties take as well. Unfortunately I do not even know if that is possible anymore.

[john70t]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

Either way, Fraü Whitmer appears to be very reluctant to re-impose her benevolent fascism. My guess is she has begun her reelection campaign so is once again hiding her megalomaniacal self.

I signed up for her recall on Change org.
The account collected all the required signatures to go forward with the next phase.
Then they nullified votes and/or changed the recall rules.

So perhaps the entire thing was just to collect a domestic enemy list or something like that.
I couldn't care less about being on one.
It will make it easier to choose who not to do business with.

Change org then started spamming me for all sorts of unrelated liberal causes.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by McLovin

Did the predictions of the COVID “mass murderer” Neanderthal governors of states like Texas, Florida, South Dakota, etc. end up coming true, and the governors of states like California, New York, Michigan turn out to be life saving heroes with the massive lockdowns?
I don’t follow any of these things anymore. So IDK.

Which is funny, since there's plenty of folks here in Texas that were pissed off about the restrictions that we had. We had periods of mandatory masking. As far as I know, it wasn't enforced and there were some people that ignored it, and most stores ignored it if a customer was ignoring it.

But, in my experience, most folks followed the rules.

[masraum]

The problem is that it's tough to compare states directly.

For instance, I don't think you can compare CA to ND. I also don't think that you can compare MA to NE. How about NY to TX, nope, probably not a good comparison.

Comparing based on population, nope, that's no good, because what if the population is very spread out in one state and stacked on top of each other in the other. How about size, nope, because then you could have radically different populations.

The best comparison would probably be population density, but even then, you'd need a way to scale it. If CA has the most folks and is one of the biggest states, that's great, but what if only 1/3 of the state has a ton of population and the rest is mostly wilderness. Then 90% of the people would be in a very different population density situation to the state figured as a whole.

[varmint]

Originally Posted by kach22i

It just might be a case of failing the Marshmallow Test.

April 13th 2021
Oh, Canada, you failed the marshmallow test
https://www.nationalobserver.com/2021/04/13/opinion/canada-failing-covid-19-marshmallow-test


We can have all the laws on the book we want, but if people don't follow them, not only do we not get a second marshmallow, we might get Covid-19 and die.



I found this information below on actual compliance with Covid-19 precautions including lock-downs, the whole USA gets a failing grade, except the state of Vermont.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard


In the past there has been some discussion on how some states report their statistics verses others, and how when the data gets imputed into the system it may create an artificial dip and or peak/spike. The latest article I found on it was out of date, but showed a lot of differences. I'm not sure if a national standard is being followed, if not then it's an apples to oranges comparison.

no, for the test to meet the current situation the researcher would have to take away a bag of marshmallows the child already owned. then promise to give a marshmallow back every fifteen minutes if the child did some meaningless and humiliating task.

and then never gave back the marshmallows.

an interesting way to identify the most obedient and gullible members of society.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by Tervuren

I think he was using the words of someone else that painted a very bleak picture for what would happen in those states.

The projections they made, the many Brazillions of dead and injured, etc....
How does hindsight compare to those predictions that those using that word made.

And secondly, maybe Neanderthals were the smart ones.
So much about Neadnerthals has been revised time and time again.
My mom was a teacher, s I've been able to read multi-decades of materials on the same subject to see how a wrong view point is taught, replaced with another wrong viewpoint, then information came out that made that wrong view piont have to go, and another wrong view point took its place, repeat, repeat....

We know a lot less than we try to seem.

Great point. Any time I see differing opinions on history that wasn't directly witnessed, and one "expert" says "that's not possible" or "that didn't/couldn't have happened," I always think "what a horrible scientist."

Any "fact" about the distant past that was not directly observed or recorded should be presented as "our best theory" rather than being presented as fact.

[cockerpunk]

Originally Posted by Tervuren

I think he was using the words of someone else that painted a very bleak picture for what would happen in those states.

The projections they made, the many Brazillions of dead and injured, etc....
How does hindsight compare to those predictions that those using that word made.

And secondly, maybe Neanderthals were the smart ones.
So much about Neadnerthals has been revised time and time again.
My mom was a teacher, s I've been able to read multi-decades of materials on the same subject to see how a wrong view point is taught, replaced with another wrong viewpoint, then information came out that made that wrong view piont have to go, and another wrong view point took its place, repeat, repeat....

We know a lot less than we try to seem.

i mean the projections by experts were largely spot on. had we continued with the lock down, the experts predicted that we'd have about 300k dead, and if we didn't shut anything down, or do anything at all, we'd have about 2 million dead.

by and and large america did some things, and wow, would you look at that, we are gonna end up with around 600k and change dead by the time its done. assuming a variant doesn't keep the whole thing going, which is a possibility. but you know what, the mixed measures we did adopt, probably saved about a million lives, and we probably could have saved another quarter of a million lives staying in hard lock down. thats what the modelers predicted, and thats basically exactly what happened.


the only projections that failed were those by non experts. remember when trump and pence said that covid deaths would go to zero by may 2020? because they knew jack all nothing about what they were doing, fitted a cubic function in MS excel and decided that since that graph went to zero by may, that deaths would certainly go to zero by may 2020?

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21250641/kevin-hassett-cubic-model-smoothing

[Walter_Middie]

The problem is that it's tough to compare states directly.

I agree - I'm interested in seeing the results once all states are opened up - then we can see if some states have more or less of an on-going problem. One scenario might be that the more restrictive states can open and stay open, whereas the less restrictive states may see more variants and have a continuing issue with Covid appearing here and there.

For my area around Seattle, I see us having an issue with our international airport continuing to bring in people from more infected areas / countries, making any comparisons with other cities or states difficult.

[cockerpunk]

its probably better to compare covid19 measures by country, seeing as how inter mixing of the states and no travel ban kinda created a patchwork in the USA that turned kinda into a average, rather that distinct chunks.

norway and sweeden, very similar countries in demographics, weather, social order, healthcare systems, etc but very different approaches to covid19, and lets take a look.

Sweden:
population: 10 million
Cases: 892k
deaths: 13.7k

Norway:
Population: 5 million
Cases: 105k
Deaths: 707. not 707 thousand, 707 total

so even adjusted for population, norway was about 4-5x better place to be during covid than sweden. largely due to norways early and much more effective lockdowns compared to sweden.