I may not be an epidemiologist, but...

[ckissick]

It seems to me that once about 70% or so of the people get vaccinated, we should go completely back to normal, and not doing so would do more harm than good in the long run. They say if you are vaccinated there's still a small chance you can get covid, but you are very unlikely to get hospitalized and there's no chance of dying.

If we all are allowed to mix and swap germs, we will get exposed to the covid virus from time to time but will get no symptoms and not even know it, or get mildly sick. And we will build up even more immunity. Eventually, covid slips into the background and joins all the other viruses that have been lurking out there for centuries. Those who don't want to take the vaccine may do so at their own risk. They won't harm the vaccinated, and there won't be enough of them in hospitals to overwhelm them. Eventually, they, too will fade into the background of annual cases.

So: Not opening up soon does more harm than good. Am I wrong?

[masraum]

That's probably somewhat accurate (me also not being an expert or even having slept at a Holiday Inn last night). But the Flu has been around forever and can still be pretty nasty and still kills people every year, so I'm not sure that getting a couple of shots and being exposed from time to time is going to give everyone immunity. That sounds like a bit of wishful thinking.

[island911]

With vaccines available to any who want, the Question is, why are we not completely back to normal now?

[masraum]

Originally Posted by island911

With vaccines available to any who want, the Question is, why are we not completely back to normal now?

Because it takes a while to get 330 million people vaccinated or even 75% of 330 million.

[wdfifteen]

That is what they call "herd immunity."
They used to say 70% or so, but there is a lot of controversy over what percentage of immune people is needed to reach herd immunity and now they're questioning whether it is even necessary. I think to some extent the scientists are placating the snowflakes who whine and moan about their lives not being normal.

[island911]

Originally Posted by masraum

Because it takes a while to get 330 million people vaccinated or even 75% of 330 million.

You make it sound like 330 million people vaccinated or even 75% of 330 million NEED to be vaccinated.

Why?

iirc more than 10% have been known (tested) to have had it already. Which means likely more double that have had it and never got tested.

And does anyone healthy under 50 need this vaccine?

[island911]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

That is what they call "herd immunity."
They used to say 70% or so, but there is a lot of controversy over what percentage of immune people is needed to reach herd immunity and now they're questioning whether it is even necessary. I think to some extent the scientists are placating the snowflakes who whine and moan about their lives not being normal.

What are you whining and moaning about now? "snowflakes" you say? They are not living with enough fear?

[flipper35]

Originally Posted by masraum

That's probably somewhat accurate (me also not being an expert or even having slept at a Holiday Inn last night). But the Flu has been around forever and can still be pretty nasty and still kills people every year, so I'm not sure that getting a couple of shots and being exposed from time to time is going to give everyone immunity. That sounds like a bit of wishful thinking.

The strain of flu changes significantly enough our immune system doesn't know what to do with it. COVID, even with the variants, has remained close enough to the original that the vaccine should let the body recognize all the variants. Those that had COVID should remain immune for several months, but may not recognize any variants. At least according to resources like Arstechnica and similar.

[Evans, Marv]

A complicating factor may be the resistance fading in a period of six months or so requiring a booster. That scenario will be playing out in a matter of a few months. I'd hate to see a reemergance with a significant number of people not gettiing the booster.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Evans, Marv

A complicating factor may be the resistance fading in a period of six months or so requiring a booster. That scenario will be playing out in a matter of a few months. I'd hate to see a reemergance with a significant number of people not gettiing the booster.

Why do people like this theory so much?

I swear, some people crave the fear.

If there is ANY indication that the vaccines are good for only 6 months, please post it.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by island911

You make it sound like 330 million people vaccinated or even 75% of 330 million NEED to be vaccinated.

Why?

What's your proposal? No one needs to be vaccinated?

iirc more than 10% have been known (tested) to have had it already. Which means likely more double that have had it and never got tested.

does having it mean that you can no longer get it or just that you don't have to worry about it any more or something else?

And does anyone healthy under 50 need this vaccine?

No one needs the vaccine if they are willing to take their chances. Plenty of folks that seemed otherwise healthy have caught it and died. If that's not a concern, then no, don't worry about it.

For that matter, don't worry about catching it and spreading it around to others. That's there problem right?

[flipper35]

Originally Posted by Evans, Marv

A complicating factor may be the resistance fading in a period of six months or so requiring a booster. That scenario will be playing out in a matter of a few months. I'd hate to see a reemergance with a significant number of people not gettiing the booster.

So far people that have had COVID are showing good immunity after 8 months ( the farthest back any of the participants are) and the vaccine is "supposed" to be better at programming the immune system than the actual infection.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by Evans, Marv

A complicating factor may be the resistance fading in a period of six months or so requiring a booster. That scenario will be playing out in a matter of a few months. I'd hate to see a reemergance with a significant number of people not gettiing the booster.

Originally Posted by island911

Why do people like this theory so much?

I swear, some people crave the fear.

If there is ANY indication that the vaccines are good for only 6 months, please post it.

Isn't the theory that due to mutations of the virus, our immunity is unlikely to be permanent after a period (maybe similar to the flu). So, similar to the flu and needing a yearly flu shot, we may end up needing a yearly CV shot to continue to have some immunity to CV to keep from getting it or minimize the effects. And the 6 months is because we don't have more than 6 months of data, but it could be 6 months, 12 months or something else entirely.

[IROC]

Originally Posted by flipper35

So far people that have had COVID are showing good immunity after 8 months ( the farthest back any of the participants are) and the vaccine is "supposed" to be better at programming the immune system than the actual infection.

Maybe some are, but not all. Here at my facility we have the ability to go above and beyond what many employers can do for employees. For instance we have our own PCR Covid testing capabilities and also provide vaccinations. I've had many tests and got my vaccine here at work.

Employees who have tested positive (and truly had Covid) are enrolled in an antibody testing program where they are tested weekly. A guy I work with daily had Covid (kicked his arse) in December. He told me this week that in his recent antibody test, his have decreased to point where he essentially has little/no immunity. So, this is less than five months.

They also have a program here at work where they are doing weekly antibody testing on those who have been vaccinated. I am not in that program and have not heard the results, but will try and find out.

[flipper35]

Yeah the article in Arstechnica said in the study roughly 80% retained immunity. It is like any other virus, nothing is 100% and never will be whether it is a natural immunity or vaccine.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by IROC

Maybe some are, but not all. Here at my facility we have the ability to go above and beyond what many employers can do for employees. For instance we have our own PCR Covid testing capabilities and also provide vaccinations. I've had many tests and got my vaccine here at work.

Employees who have tested positive (and truly had Covid) are enrolled in an antibody testing program where they are tested weekly. A guy I work with daily had Covid (kicked his arse) in December. He told me this week that in his recent antibody test, his have decreased to point where he essentially has little/no immunity. So, this is less than five months.

They also have a program here at work where they are doing weekly antibody testing on those who have been vaccinated. I am not in that program and have not heard the results, but will try and find out.

Excellent, hope you can get the data.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by IROC

Maybe some are, but not all. Here at my facility we have the ability to go above and beyond what many employers can do for employees. For instance we have our own PCR Covid testing capabilities and also provide vaccinations. I've had many tests and got my vaccine here at work.

Employees who have tested positive (and truly had Covid) are enrolled in an antibody testing program where they are tested weekly. A guy I work with daily had Covid (kicked his arse) in December. He told me this week that in his recent antibody test, his have decreased to point where he essentially has little/no immunity. So, this is less than five months.

They also have a program here at work where they are doing weekly antibody testing on those who have been vaccinated. I am not in that program and have not heard the results, but will try and find out.

Let me guess, you work for Best Buy? These are PCR test kits from WalGreens?

That's very cool and interesting. Very much looking forward to hear if you learn of results from vaccinated folks.

[Scott Douglas]

I think the biggest problem is Covid-19 hasn't been around very long so we're in the infant stage of our knowledge gathering about it.

[rusnak]

Originally Posted by Scott Douglas

I think the biggest problem is Covid-19 hasn't been around very long so we're in the infant stage of our knowledge gathering about it.

Yes. That, and culling out the dis-information too. Whatever the true picture turns out to be, it probably won't be as bad as the mass panic that was being pushed by the media. And it won't be as easy to "flatten the curve" by telling people to (1) stay home, (2) wear a mask, and (3) stay 6 feet apart. I think that is asinine, and was being required by individuals and businesses lest you get a hefty fine. It'll turn out that there was not much that we could do long-term other than just wait it out. It has spread quite rapidly, despite all of the government shut downs. It has reached virtually every person by now on the planet, in 18 destructive months. Was it worth causing global recession? I don't know. I suspect that will be debated for decades to come.

[Baz]

Originally Posted by IROC

Maybe some are, but not all. Here at my facility we have the ability to go above and beyond what many employers can do for employees. For instance we have our own PCR Covid testing capabilities and also provide vaccinations. I've had many tests and got my vaccine here at work.

Employees who have tested positive (and truly had Covid) are enrolled in an antibody testing program where they are tested weekly. A guy I work with daily had Covid (kicked his arse) in December. He told me this week that in his recent antibody test, his have decreased to point where he essentially has little/no immunity. So, this is less than five months.

They also have a program here at work where they are doing weekly antibody testing on those who have been vaccinated. I am not in that program and have not heard the results, but will try and find out.

Thanks for this input, Mike. I hope you will continue to post your observations!

Originally Posted by Scott Douglas

I think the biggest problem is Covid-19 hasn't been around very long so we're in the infant stage of our knowledge gathering about it.

This is my thought, as well. And to make matters worse the media continues to interject politics into their reporting - which mucks things up a bit for those of us who just want facts and data. And honesty.