Future of short range commutes?
 

Forget driveable airplanes, just land where your going and forget the drive.

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25 mile range, that would get me into Charlotte, where I could plug in, do my stuff, then come back.

I have no idea what the rules and regulations around this are, or will be.
25 mile range would be too short for a car, but able to take a direct route?
It'd work out fine for a lot people.
Around here a lot of the road system is spiral shaped, even if I did 25MPH flying, I'd get there a lot faster than 45MPH driving.

Automated would be great.

Would have to have good cup holders for my commute

There are a lot of companies working on this.

We have dome design work for these folks: Home - New | HopFlyt

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1628622965.jpg

I am not an aero engineer, but they have a term called, "the aero wheel of misfortune".

It is coming but it is going to take energy breakthroughs and, frankly, ducted fans and pilot-less aircraft.

Cool stuff, however.

And home owners insurance will go up for coverage from falling aircraft. The average driver is incapable of driving safely on a paved road with lines on the road. With flight there will be some real bad crashes. And every single company trying it will have their own proprietary computer system that does not work with the other civil aviation and or other "commuter aircraft" like those.

Maybe someday, when the battery packs have a energy density several orders of magnitude more than current.

A lot of them in the past; I've looked at what is going on and my mind has gone "Scam".
More money...more money...
And no free flying prototype...ever.

Was cool to see an actual set of flights in a public place like Airventure Oshkosh.

For the insurance issue, cars of today find their way into homes already.
I'm sure how that is taken care of could apply to this.
Personally I would love a push botton ride into Charlotte.
I would expect such a system to check in on weather data, and be a "no fly" if winds above "X".
In which case I'd either stay home, or take my land car.

One thing I haven't looked up is price.

My business associates are in this "space" amongst others.

More is going on than folks realize.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/great-electric-airplane-race/

https://techcrunch.com/2020/01/15/joby-aviation-raises-590-million-led-by-toyota-to-launch-an-electric-air-taxi-service/

I have met some of the players...

a huge percentage of the funded companies are in my network...

opportunities abound.

All true. The problem will remain exposed dynamic components.

We have done some design work for Toyota as well on a ducted fan motorcycle. Their lawyers thought a flying motorcycle was a bit premature.

The studies are very compelling - more so in the package delivery last 100 miles, using under utilized airports.

As a former pilot, I trust the electronics of unmanned flight way more than I trust a 450 hour conehead making $25k a year to get me to my car.

I can decide to get in or not.

People can't even drive cars safely so anything other than autonomous is only going to add more opportunity for people to crash into stuff

One thing you can say for a freeway or beltway is that everyone is going the same direction on the same plane a lot of the times between barriers. Take 2 factors, or even 1 of the first 2 out of the equation, and you have chaos. Sure, computer power will help, but....

The video I posted was autonomous flight with a passenger.
Which for a commute situation, I'd look fowards to.

I guess the other part that caught my attention was the modest specs.
Not advertising 300MPH, 10,000 mile range, blah blah...

I've seen video of someone going the wrong way in pattern at Oshkosh.

Take three Model S, AWD
Use the triple battery, eight motors for lift, four for articulation
Duct the lift so dumbasses can still be dumbasses

That sucker sure was loud.

I am not a fan of quad copter type craft for people. Planes can glide. Helicopters have autorotation. What happens to one of these following a serious failure?

Depends on serious.
A serious mast strike in some helicopters, auto rotation doesn't work after that.
There are problems with anything.
And the serious problems are always serious.

This particular aircraft does have wings, it should fall slower than human body otherwise would if something went wrong in horizontal flight.
The worst phase would be full engine failure right at transition from verticle to horizontal.
Which an engine failure on take off is still a way to die via conventional fixed wing aircraft.

The wheel of misfortune, listened to an older lecture on it.
Interestingly this design wasn't one of the categories.

For commuter purposes, the last 25 to 50 miles, there is a lot of work being done with fuel cells, batteries, a combination of the two, etc.

Flight in the national airspace for unmanned systems is a reality now and will become more so...governed by the FAA. Just like manned aircraft, there will proscribed routes and altitudes, flight following, etc.

Again, the redundancies in unmanned systems is simply amazing. They do what you tell them to do and can be programmed to recommend autonomy in certain cases. I will have no problem being in a pilot-less aircraft.

Concerning accidents and the like: The standards for unmanned commuter aircraft will not change just because the air vehicle does not have a pilot onboard. They will be certified aircraft to the same standards as manned transport aircraft.

Frankly, the electric motors driving the industry are so reliable they make jet engines jealous.

Ducted design is the way to go for safety, efficiency and noise abatement.

We own a 2004 Cessna 182T. Long proven design, and a great aircraft. It makes a Ferrari look cheap to own. We are going to have to do our annual inspection next month. Every single panel is opened and the interior is removed just to see the innards. Looking for any corrosion or wear items. It is a long tedious process, and every system is tested, not just compression and tire pressure. It is an expensive operation that usually takes several weeks if everything is going great. When the engine get to a certain number of hours, it is HAS to be either rebuilt, or replaced and that is usually 30 grand.

To get to an era of commuting air vehicles we will need a lot more mechanics.

Our 182 takes off, and lands on a nice long commercial runway and has wings hold it up and the engine is to keep the pilot from sweating and move forward while it sucks up amazing amounts of gasoline. That is a LOT of energy required just to fly. Energy is needed in either electrical form or ICE form. Whatever, it takes a lot of go power. And if the engine fails in an airplane at least we can hopefully glide to the ground. An aircraft with no means of support becomes a brick like falling stone.

I want my flying car like almost everyone else. I just don't see it happening anytime soon. If they do ever make a commercial production commuting aircraft they will make private jets look affordable. The lawyers will be salivating in anticipation of the lawsuits.

I get it, trust me.

The UAS commuter studies, and I have helped with a few, all focus on VTOL at each end for point to point delivery of passengers just like a helicopter.

I have been involved, as you know, with UAS for over twenty years. The main stumbling blocks for many years were government regulations that prevented over the horizon flights for non-military UAS. I got out of the commercial UAS business (made good, not great money) was because of FAA regulations and our inability to scale up to meet demand.

Other reasons as well, mostly on man-power costs associated with FAA regulations.

We are working with a company that award a contract from Walmart for package delivery. They are the dog that caught the car. It is clar to them that ducted fan design are essential for safety.

BTW, the Honda lawyers ended the flying (manned) motorcycle for all the reason you stated above. Lawsuit central!

Lots of moving parts by people are pushing the envelope, never bad thing in aviation: I was told when I started managing all Navy and Marine Corps UAS in 2005 that they were a "fad" every freaking day.

I think this is the future of personal entertainment vehicles but not transportation, for the same reasons we dont have flying cars and really even genav as transportation

I think the future (present maybe?) of short commutes in highly populated areas for much of the world will be electric bikes, scooters, and mini motorcycles

One of the local stories is of a DR. that bought a 4 passenger aircraft for his toy. On a 100+ degree day he decided to take a 300 pound friend and some luggage on a trip to Texas. Full fuel tanks, and off they go. At the end of the runway he pulls it up and is simply overweight and augers in and kills himself and the passenger. 100% stupid pilot error. The math for a safe takeoff in that heat was just not possible, and they should have stayed on the ground.

The widow sues everyone.

One of the local parts suppliers is included in the lawsuit. He sold the tires to the owner and they were on the airplane when it crashed. He sold them freaking tires, and was pert of the lawsuit. It cost him a lot of money to defend himself and his company for selling tires, that anyone can understand had nothing to do with the crash. That is not uncommon with airplane crashes. I guess car crashes are so common that the tire stores are not sued for all the car crashes.

The judge should have tossed the lawsuit and made the widow and the attorney pay all the costs of the people they sued.

Lawsuits have nearly crippled general aviation manufacturing in this country except fr experimental kit planes.

Amazing.

Back to the future of commuting: It is going to happen with VTOL UAS, it is just a question of when. 99% of the national airspace is empty outside of major airports.

Some interesting tidbits here on mid air and where they occur, when and what is the weather: https://www.planeandpilotmag.com/news/2021/06/14/plane-facts-midairs/

Yea, on of the many things we had to spend big bucks on was a full ADS-B upgrade for our 182. For us to get close to Class B airspace it is required. It is comforting to see where every other aircraft is in the large glass display.

If is 100% legal for us to roll out of the hangar, and take off and head north east and never talk to anyone and just stay away from Class B or any restricted areas and fly all we want. I just wonder how long before some idiot in his UAS ends up flying over Ft. Sill when the range is hot and ordinance is flying to the targets.

I would expect a UAS system to have pathing that would keep that from happening.

No question, and "fences" in the software to prevent it.

A Quick Sea Story I have probably written about here before:

When I was the PMA for Navy/Marine UAS, I had two Global Hawks (AF high fliers) for test. We used them a lot.

The control station was across the street from my office at Pax River and I would have them call me when the GH was 20 minutes out from landing. GH's are big aircraft.

I would settle in at the LSO shack and watch final approach to touch down, They landed in nearly the exact same spot on the runaway every time, a CEP of feet. I just got a huge kick out of watching the landing. I started bring people from my PMA with me and they loved it.

UAS do exactly what you tell them: they are not hung over, tired, worried about finances or their girlfriend. They execute the flight plan to perfection.

Again, I'd much rather fly in a UAS transport aircraft than a manned Frontier Airlines **** can with a Baby Pilot making $30k a year living with four other pilots in a hovel.

Great, now we will dumbasses in flying cars, texting, doing lipstick, crunching into trees, each other and rainind down "flying car" parts down on us people on the ground. Idiocracy part 2...

First autonomous landings at sea, managed by yours truly. I took the pictures as well.

Fire Scout.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1628706895.jpg

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1628706895.jpg

When men were men:cool:

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1628706981.JPG

Sounds like that's a problem in England too (?)

I thought it was just us 'muricans

Utterly fantastic in every possible way... :)

I see this becoming big for delivery-type use. With people expecting yesterday delivery of goods retailers need ever quicker and more efficient delivery systems. WalMart will be well positioned to take advantage. They’ll have a landing pad fenced off in the corner of every parking lot, warehouses will have multiple landing spots on roofs. Rail could be used for long-haul, trucks for last mile, and UAVs for intermediate hauling. It will be a well-proven system before wide spread passenger use.

Aircraft certification is, as you know, a well worn exercise, especially transportation aircraft in the national airspace.

Most people get fixated on the "pilot-less" aspect. I do not.

The amount of redundancy in core mission avionics in UAS far exceeds any private plane flying today and I bet most transportation aircraft.

By "core" I mean GPS, six axis-gyros, auto-pilots, mission computers, etc. That stuff can be made quad redundant with little or no weight penalties.

The key will be in the the pitot-static (pressure sensitive) back-ups and in the power and propulsion, again, all part of the air vehicle certification.

Here is a screen shot from a flight test video last Friday. We are integrating a HAZMAT sensor in our Watchman Aircraft so the initial flights are indoors with a safety tether. We are doing what we call "fan tests" today and tomorrow before we go outside off tether.

Goofy I know, but we but large fans on the ground to simulate winds for take-off and landings. All part of the build up to certification with the FAA. Every minute of flight time is tracked as are power-on events with no take-off. We track everything.

This UAS is an 8 inch ducted fan. You can see the small electro-optic ball on the left in the picture. Amazing clarity.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1628770478.jpg

^^

I meant to make the point that it will be well-proven in use. I didn't mean to imply that developers or the FAA will take any short cuts, but there is no substitute for hours in use
EDIT:
... there is no substitute for hours in use to build public confidence.

I know you worked with the Air Force so what I wrote was for others. There is a lot of misconceptions on unmanned aircraft.

I agree with you, btw...packages first, stack some hours and then propose a transition to unmanned transports with a pilot initially who can take control if required but is essentially along for the ride.

Edit: We have done some initial design work for two start-ups and get calls all the time from some of the larger companies chasing this. My partner is a known expert in ducted fan design.

Most are way underfunded in terms of understanding the road, a long and winding road, to a certified aircraft that is pilot-less. Revenue is more than a week away:)

Paul, how much noise does that ducted fan make on landing and take off?

I am sure it is far less than a small jet engine. Jay Leno has a Jet powered motorcycle and admits it is just insane. He said when he pulls up at an intersection is it funny to see everyone looking into the sky for the jet noise. And the neighbors are not happy if he fires it up in the morning to go to his "office" and play with cars.

I just wonder about that UAV flying over someone's house and making a lot of noise. Not that the average diesel delivery truck is stealthy. Our dogs alert us when UPS or Amazon pull up out front before the driver gets out.

It will be an interesting future. I just wonder about the reality of package delivery with UAVs, and the mandatory push from governments to electric cars will really play out. Those are two very different industries, but both are in their infancy, and will cause major changes to our way of doing things if they can be made to work on a large scale.

Actually much quieter and more efficient than a quad or octo-rotor with about a third the footprint for a given payload.

It is also safer because all dynamic components are inside the duct.

We are working the UAS below for a company that has a large contract to develop a package delivery UAS. Small footprint, can be tether or untethered and has a very wide CG and stability. Safety is also very good as is it's aural signature.

We have designed and flown the prototype. Their requirements are actually very well stated.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1628776437.jpg

But you are absolutely right, noise will be an issue as will safety, sense and avoid, etc. I personally don't see wide acceptance for package delivery to homes for a while.

Their business plan is very compelling, however.

I don't know that much about unmanned aircraft. I do remember that a few years ago I stated that they take fewer personnel to operate and was surprised when you said no, they take more.

If the development process you go through is anything like what I did it is painstaking and often frustrating. We spent thousands of man hours fretting over the wing skin material for the C-17. There were factions concerned with weight savings, factions touting cost, factions worried about corrosion resistance. I left before the made a final decision, but the amount of time spent testing and discussing the tiniest changes in aluminum alloys was unbelievable.
Standing back and looking at it 40 years later I can see saving a pound of weight on that one system added to a pound here and there saved in other systems spread out over the millions of hours they spend in the air adds up.

Meanwhile, up in Canada…

https://calgarysun.com/news/saskatchewan-man-charged-after-landing-helicopter-at-ice-cream-shop-in-small-town/wcm/8e699492-4655-42d7-bf33-8681b9a5d3f5

Like lots of other people we get a lot of packages from on-line purchases. Most delivery people put in up against the corner of the front porch. That way we just open the door and grab the package.

It will be interesting to see how delivery company using a UAV can put the package even close to my front porch. Are they just going to dump it in the yard? I guess they could indeed fly it over the house and put it on the larger back porch out of the weather. That will freak out the dogs big time.

I understand lots of really smart people are trying to make it happen. I just am skeptical it can ever be cost effective for a neighborhood. Maybe it will be better for the people living in remote areas or on farms.

I think they will require a special drop box to put deliveries in and it will have to be accessible from the air. You may be right about rural deliveries. It can't be very cost effective to send a truck out for an hour to make 2 deliveries. I suspect they will still be better off using trucks in more densely populated areas. If they have 200 deliveries in a square mile area I don't see it saving them any time or money to load up and send out 200 UAVs vs loading one truck and sending it out. I don't see a UAV with the capacity of a UPS truck maneuvering through a tree-lined neighborhood, but I may be wrong.

At the convenience store close by, they have a Amazon locker that we could use if we wanted to. I just have it dropped on the porch, and we have never had an issue. It likely helps that we are usually home, so thieves have a really short window.

I saw a few of the contraptions at Oshkosh.... No way in hell am I going to trust my life to an upscaled large RC drone on a daily commute. In my old school fixed wing airplanes, if the engine quits, I pick a field and do a "controlled" dead stick landing. In these multi motored or quad copter type contraptions, if a lipo battery pack or some circuit board fails, you are a brick falling to the ground. If it is a equipped with a ballistic chute, maybe you survive, but your $100k plus toy is still likely totaled.

OTOH, I think unmanned military vehicles and video taking rc drones are awesome and of great value, but no way do I see these becoming mainstream for public transportation uses.