Transportation - Supply Chain problem - why

[masraum]

I didn't want to derail the heirloom thread.

Why do we have a transpo problem, especially the local trucking portion of it?

Originally Posted by craigster59

There really is a transportation/ supply chain breakdown happening. A truck from LA to ATL that used to run $2-3k is now $8k (if you can find one). Shipping containers from China that used to run us $2500 are now $27.5k.

Something small like a watch, I don't care if it costs $100 to ship, as long as it makes it from point A to point B is all I'm worried about.

Originally Posted by gtc

We've seen container shipping prices jump 5x for freight coming in to the US - via either coast. Leaving the US is much easier.

Trucking prices are also going through the roof. Lots more freight these days, and a shortage of both trucks and truckers.

The shipping to/from China, I can maybe kind of see, but I don't understand why there would be a problem with trucks and truckers in the continental US. That's got to be one of the most Covid friendly jobs there is. Pretty limited interaction with others.

[IROC]

Originally Posted by masraum

The shipping to/from China, I can maybe kind of see, but I don't understand why there would be a problem with trucks and truckers in the continental US. That's got to be one of the most Covid friendly jobs there is. Pretty limited interaction with others.

A couple of reasons I heard were that a lot of truckers quit/found something else to do last year when transportation needs tanked during the early months of the pandemic. And, somewhat in conjunction, a lot of truckers are older white guys and they decided to retire during those times and there's not a huge influx of young guys (or women) joining the ranks... So...shortage in truckers. Especially those with certs (I forget the term) to drive tankers, hazmat stuff, things like that.

[rfuerst911sc]

There are many layers of this onion to peel back for the answers . In a nutshell I see two basic reasons for supply chain issues . Every port in America has a huge backlog of container ships waiting to be offloaded . The reason for the backlog is not enough available/trained workforce
to unload the ships .

Secondary but just as important is the lack of trained and skilled OTR drivers . The days of the average Joe just climbing behind the wheel and driving is mostly gone . There are many state and federal rules and regulations to adhere to and many need to be either logged or reported daily . So a driver needs to maneuver road traffic and rules and regulations . Takes some smarts .

So if you are having trouble feeding the pipeline , and then having trouble delivering what's in the pipeline well here we are . From what I hear because I have never worked in either field but you can make good $$$ in either of these professions . But of all the friends/family/coworkers you know how many are striving to be in either of these fields . Unfortunately many have the mindset it is not glamorous enough . Or worse yet it's hard work . It's very difficult to drive a truck or unload a ship when your head is buried on your phone .

[rfuerst911sc]

Here is just one example of thousands out there.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coca-colas-york-distributor-says-115825139.html

[masraum]

thanks folks.

[rfuerst911sc]

Just found this example , I use to eat there when I lived in Orlando. That location has been open for 35 years but forced to close as they were down to 4 employees . Per the owner no one wants to work .

https://news.yahoo.com/florida-bbq-restaurant-shut-down-110227522.html

[widebody911]

Originally Posted by rfuerst911sc

Just found this example , I use to eat there when I lived in Orlando. That location has been open for 35 years but forced to close as they were down to 4 employees . Per the owner no one wants to work .

https://news.yahoo.com/florida-bbq-restaurant-shut-down-110227522.html

There is not a labor shortage - at all. There's a wage shortage.

[wilnj]

I was going to create another thread but this one works.

BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends

https://www.ft.com/content/f55a1d96-1146-4e17-88a9-1a0fbaf57de6?fbclid=IwAR3XF8My8dYuq_lXIqRdSOWDSW9c A-BSGkFeJNOZckmn-N4v0BtySvGnsNE

Carmakers Daimler and BMW separately plan to limit the volume of premium models they ship even once the industry-wide chip shortage eases, in a bid to lock in the hefty price increases they have achieved during the pandemic.

A chronic shortage of semiconductors, which cars rely on for everything from electronic windows to driver assistance systems, has hobbled the supply of vehicles just as consumer demand rebounds from repeated lockdowns.

Although the luxury German carmakers were already shifting away from a volume-based approach before Covid-19, customers’ willingness to pay higher prices during the pandemic has emboldened them to go further.

“We will consciously undersupply demand level[s],” Harald Wilhelm, Daimler’s chief financial officer*told the Financial Times, “and at the same time we [will] shift gears towards the higher, the luxury end.”

BMW had “seen a significant improvement in pricing power in the last 24 months,” said chief financial officer Nicolas Peter in a separate interview. The Munich-based carmaker’s plan was “clearly to maintain . . . the way we manage supply to maintain our pricing power on today’s level,” he added. This would be through a number of measures including digitally tracking customer demand.

Industry executives, car dealers and analysts say that the chip shortage, which has its roots in a competition between the auto and consumer electronic industries for a limited supply of semiconductors, will herald a new approach in pricing and selling premium models.

“The pandemic has really opened everyone’s eyes — that a different paradigm is possible,” said Arndt Ellinghorst, an analyst at Bernstein. “Everyone loves it, including dealers.”

Discounts typically offered to customers at dealerships — usually around 15 per cent in mature markets — have been slashed, with some models being sold above sticker price.

A one percentage point decrease in the average discount would release $20bn in extra profits for car manufacturers, according to Ellinghorst, and discounts in Europe and the US have dropped by at least double that amount from their pre-pandemic peak.

BMW’s Peter said that the group’s US dealers, “always claimed . . . well we need the cars in the showroom, the customer is expecting to pop in on Saturday morning, 10am, and he wants to leave with everything done, fixed number plates on the car at 1pm latest.”

Now, however, they say “customers are ready to wait three to four months, and this is helping our pricing power,” he added. “Of course the waiting time must not be too long, but if you buy a premium car like a BMW, it’s an emotional decision . . . to have a short waiting time is something, I believe, which makes the customer experience even greater and better.”

The increased pricing power has already fed through to the bottom lines for BMW and Daimler. Mercedes achieved a 12.2 per cent return on sales in the last reported quarter, up from 8.4 per cent in the same period in 2018 — the last measure not affected by the pandemic or diesel emissions litigation costs. BMW’s margin reached almost 16 per cent, up from 8.6 per cent.

Daimler’s Wilhelm said that while the chips shortage has artificially lifted prices, “one day or another the semis issue will be gone and we will carry on with the price, and the margin, and the mix focus”.

Signs that pricing power is proving sticky for luxury carmakers comes as central banks remain alert for signs of inflation as the global economy rebounds.

The European Central Bank this week raised its inflation forecast for this year to 2.2 per cent, but predicted it would fall back below its 2 per cent target next year and remain at only 1.5 per cent in 2023.

[ckelly78z]

There is a microchip shortage which has been affected by the Asian factories that have had to shut down/eliminate shifts because of covid running rampant. This is why dealerships have no new cars, why electronics stores don't have product, and why appliance makers are running behind.

I think there may be an element of hoarding/prepping going on with people who believe in a TABS style global financial crisis. This would explain many empty grocery store shelves.

Beyond all of this, far too many folks have left the workforce, and refuse to return for whatever reason motivates them.

[craigster59]

Originally Posted by widebody911

There is not a labor shortage - at all. There's a wage shortage.

[KNS]

Originally Posted by widebody911

There is not a labor shortage - at all. There's a wage shortage.

I think the problem lies somewhere in between. Minimum wages cold stand to be higher in some parts of the country. People also have to be realistic and understand that you can't demand the salary commensurate with a four year degree for flipping burgers.

Everybody would like to be paid more money - in most cases you're paid based on your experience and education. You're first job at Wendy's you most likely have neither experience or education and your wage would reflect that.

[MBAtarga]

Originally Posted by IROC

A couple of reasons I heard were that a lot of truckers quit/found something else to do last year when transportation needs tanked during the early months of the pandemic. And, somewhat in conjunction, a lot of truckers are older white guys and they decided to retire during those times and there's not a huge influx of young guys (or women) joining the ranks... So...shortage in truckers. Especially those with certs (I forget the term) to drive tankers, hazmat stuff, things like that.

I've got a buddy that owns his own trucking firm.
When COVID hit - and there was no product moving anywhere - a LOT of sole proprietors and small firms closed up shop. Trucking rates dropped down to $1/mile. His operating costs are higher than that - so he parked his trucks and was able to make it through the storm. When product started moving again - there weren't as many drivers/trucks available - and contracts starting up were then paying $3-5/mile!
I'm not sure they are still that high though. There are definitely not as many truckers on the road now though.

[wilnj]

10 years from now, students studying Supply Chain and Logistics will write theses on the 24-30 starting in February of 2020.

The latest wrinkle in our house is my son’s bus wasn’t showing up for the first week. The school district contracts out the bussing and the bus company was unable to find drivers.

They’ve either left for better paying trucking jobs or left the workforce entirely.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by widebody911

There is not a labor shortage - at all. There's a wage shortage.

Originally Posted by KNS

I think the problem lies somewhere in between. Minimum wages cold stand to be higher in some parts of the country. People also have to be realistic and understand that you can't demand the salary commensurate with a four year degree for flipping burgers.

Everybody would like to be paid more money - in most cases you're paid based on your experience and education. You're first job at Wendy's you most likely have neither experience or education and your wage would reflect that.

As stated, there is probably some combination of the above.

1 Everybody these days wants and expects to have an 80" TV and iPhone 12-super-mega. To afford those things, they need more money (or credit)
2 Not everyone is worth more money
3 Some places (Cali, NYC, etc...) cost an arm and leg to live, and so even the folks in jobs that aren't really worth a lot need a lot more money to live a very basic life than if they were in Houston or Mississippi or anyplace else with a low cost of living
4 I suspect places like a BBQ place, need to be raising prices, but then the public is expecting everything to be cheap, if places don't raise prices, then places can't pay employees more.

Everyone seems to be expecting Walmart prices and premium goods, whether it is for food, gas, phones, TVs, shoes, clothes, etc.... Prices staying roughly the same or even going down so that everyone can keep up with the Jones', but also everyone having increasing salaries so that everyone can keep up with the Jones' cannot last forever.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by wilnj

I was going to create another thread but this one works.

BMW and Daimler pledge to keep prices high when chip crisis ends

https://www.ft.com/content/f55a1d96-1146-4e17-88a9-1a0fbaf57de6?fbclid=IwAR3XF8My8dYuq_lXIqRdSOWDSW9c A-BSGkFeJNOZckmn-N4v0BtySvGnsNE

Carmakers Daimler and BMW separately plan to limit the volume of premium models they ship even once the industry-wide chip shortage eases, in a bid to lock in the hefty price increases they have achieved during the pandemic.

A chronic shortage of semiconductors, which cars rely on for everything from electronic windows to driver assistance systems, has hobbled the supply of vehicles just as consumer demand rebounds from repeated lockdowns.

Although the luxury German carmakers were already shifting away from a volume-based approach before Covid-19, customers’ willingness to pay higher prices during the pandemic has emboldened them to go further.

“We will consciously undersupply demand level[s],” Harald Wilhelm, Daimler’s chief financial officer*told the Financial Times, “and at the same time we [will] shift gears towards the higher, the luxury end.”

BMW had “seen a significant improvement in pricing power in the last 24 months,” said chief financial officer Nicolas Peter in a separate interview. The Munich-based carmaker’s plan was “clearly to maintain . . . the way we manage supply to maintain our pricing power on today’s level,” he added. This would be through a number of measures including digitally tracking customer demand.

Industry executives, car dealers and analysts say that the chip shortage, which has its roots in a competition between the auto and consumer electronic industries for a limited supply of semiconductors, will herald a new approach in pricing and selling premium models.

“The pandemic has really opened everyone’s eyes — that a different paradigm is possible,” said Arndt Ellinghorst, an analyst at Bernstein. “Everyone loves it, including dealers.”

Discounts typically offered to customers at dealerships — usually around 15 per cent in mature markets — have been slashed, with some models being sold above sticker price.

A one percentage point decrease in the average discount would release $20bn in extra profits for car manufacturers, according to Ellinghorst, and discounts in Europe and the US have dropped by at least double that amount from their pre-pandemic peak.

BMW’s Peter said that the group’s US dealers, “always claimed . . . well we need the cars in the showroom, the customer is expecting to pop in on Saturday morning, 10am, and he wants to leave with everything done, fixed number plates on the car at 1pm latest.”

Now, however, they say “customers are ready to wait three to four months, and this is helping our pricing power,” he added. “Of course the waiting time must not be too long, but if you buy a premium car like a BMW, it’s an emotional decision . . . to have a short waiting time is something, I believe, which makes the customer experience even greater and better.”

The increased pricing power has already fed through to the bottom lines for BMW and Daimler. Mercedes achieved a 12.2 per cent return on sales in the last reported quarter, up from 8.4 per cent in the same period in 2018 — the last measure not affected by the pandemic or diesel emissions litigation costs. BMW’s margin reached almost 16 per cent, up from 8.6 per cent.

Daimler’s Wilhelm said that while the chips shortage has artificially lifted prices, “one day or another the semis issue will be gone and we will carry on with the price, and the margin, and the mix focus”.

Signs that pricing power is proving sticky for luxury carmakers comes as central banks remain alert for signs of inflation as the global economy rebounds.

The European Central Bank this week raised its inflation forecast for this year to 2.2 per cent, but predicted it would fall back below its 2 per cent target next year and remain at only 1.5 per cent in 2023.

That that that..means not every Chump aspiring to.be rich is going to be able to drive a Benz..or Manure Wagen...ohhh dear..

RIP..mass market consumerism..That mentality really kicked off in the mid 70's ....remember what happened to the 911 in 74?

And fk. DIETER at Benz and Wofie at BMW...they were moving towards fewer cars..yep..BS..Not as many people could afford their over priced schlock.

Now the fkers are too stupid to realize what happened to Dusenburg, Pierce Arrow etc in the 30's can happen to them..even rich people stopped buying the luxury stuff.

An automobile is nothing more than.a glorified appliance..like a washing machine and is a depreciating asset.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by KNS

I think the problem lies somewhere in between. Minimum wages cold stand to be higher in some parts of the country. People also have to be realistic and understand that you can't demand the salary commensurate with a four year degree for flipping burgers.

Everybody would like to be paid more money - in most cases you're paid based on your experience and education. You're first job at Wendy's you most likely have neither experience or education and your wage would reflect that.

Well i here some Burger joints are requiring a 4 year degree to flip them burgers...

[David]

I'm having a machine part shipped from Michigan this weekend. $4/mile and this is probably a box van not an 18 wheeler. Seems pretty profitable to me.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by ckelly78z

There is a microchip shortage which has been affected by the Asian factories that have had to shut down/eliminate shifts because of covid running rampant. This is why dealerships have no new cars, why electronics stores don't have product, and why appliance makers are running behind.

I think there may be an element of hoarding/prepping going on with people who believe in a TABS style global financial crisis. This would explain many empty grocery store shelves.

Beyond all of this, far too many folks have left the workforce, and refuse to return for whatever reason motivates them.

People working those service jobs have no motivvation.cause they cant even make ends meet working those service jobs. So they feel they have no.future just endless drudgery. An 15 an hr hardly helps ...this essentally means that there is little to no real MC anymore and now it just a large working poor class.. So why the fk work when you cant get what is being shown on TV.

I laid this out more than 20 years ago..it started in the 70's..A return to the economic demographics of 1910.

[tabs]

Why dont they give ELON a call an git some of those self drivin rigs goin.

Ohhh wait if no one has a job how are they gona be buyin all those wonderful AI produced thigs?

Retrain ya say..with 50% of the pop wt an IQ UNDER 100 they are NOT able to grasp the complexities of a high.tech job...ohhhh now what are ya gona do genius.

I guess put em on Welfare to keep em from lootin and pillagin.

You know how fkin delusionaly stupid these tech guys sound?

[tabs]

The just in time supply chain was a fine tuned thing..shut it down and it broke the chain..now it is running like an engine that is out of time. It will take time to retweak it..if sumthin else dont screw it up.