The Western Pacific War

[aap1966]

In the hope that "all politics ends at the border" I'm posting this here in the (I suspect forlorn) hope that it doesn't get PARFed.

One of the guys I run with has a wife who in her job sees a lot of military and diplomatic communication. I was talking to him the other day about Australia purchasing Virginia class submarines and made a comment along the lines of 'call me paranoid, but I think there must be a, what, 20% chance that we could go to war over Taiwan'.
He smirked and said "From what (wife) has seen, the (Aussie) military is thinking that there's a 20% chance there won't be a war."

Straight shooting sort of guy, so not a comment I'd dismiss out of hand.

Thoughts?

And please, can we avoid the whole "It'd all be rainbows and unicorns if not for Trump / Biden / Sanders / Elon Musk / whoever" rants...................

[Neilk]

I’m worried that if Putin tries to invade Ukraine that China will take the opportunity to “annex” Taiwan. That would plunge the world into a huge crisis. Hopefully both Putin and Xi recognize that.

[aap1966]

My concern is that Putin and Xi are absolutely aware that such action would precipitate a huge crisis, but they think that they can turn it to their advantage.

[KNS]

^^

And if they really wanted to get nasty a hack to our power grid (during the winter) similar to what was attempted with Australia recently would really send things spiraling.

I'm sure the Russians/Chinese are weighing all the scenarios. A combination of all three together would be crippling.

[RNajarian]

They both know the US is all talk. After 20 years in Afghanistan the voting public doesn’t care about Ukraine or Taiwan. We will not commit boots on the ground. Likely both campaigns will occur at the same time and all we will do is bark, possibly apply sanctions.

Political Commentary Omitted, respecting rules of OT Forum

[p911dad]

You can add Iran to that group. Israel could likely take care of Iran, but the other 2 would mean war on 2 fronts. We pulled some of our armor out of Germany a while ago and now both Russia and China have hypersonic missiles which could take out our Pacific fleet in no time and scare Europe into submission. I read Putin now has 200,000 troops massed on the Ukraine border.

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by RNajarian

They both know the US is all talk. After 20 years in Afghanistan the voting public doesn’t care about Ukraine or Taiwan. We will not commit boots on the ground.

I agree. Getting them there is a nightmare scenario...the tyranny of distance.

I have spent a lot of quality time with the armed forces of Taiwan. They are not as toothless as some might believe. That and the terrain of Taiwan is a defensive dream.

My opinion is that China wants to solidify access to Africa before it moves on Taiwan. I have zero insight other than a gut feel.

[LWJ]

I strongly believe that much of the division in the US has been amplified by these foreign actors. Which leads to both China and Russia believing that they can do anything they desire.

So, I pretty much agree with all of the above.

I think Russia is the weak link here. Lots of leverage that can be applied to them.

China? They control far too much production of critical items. Rare Earth Magnets comes to mind.

[beatnavy]

I agree with everything here. China is being very crafty and patient, naturally. We hear taking Taiwan is Xi's top priority, ideally with the semiconductor and other manufacturing intact. They'll first try all means short of a hot war including subversion and intimidation. If that doesn't work, invasion is still on the table, particularly if the timing is right and they sense weakness and hesitation from the world, particularly the Quad countries (Australia, US, India, Japan).

At some point US Leadership is going to have to publicly acknowledge a new "cold war" instead of tiptoeing around it. That is dangerous and has repercussions, and it actually asks the people to make sacrifices (e.g., pay higher prices for things). But it also provides clarity, which has advantages. People are more willing to sacrifice and unite with clarity. You tend to focus once you recognize real danger.

[Norm K]

Regarding China: we currently share a common greatest weakness, our economies.

While it's a slow process, China appears to be in the process of establishing new markets so that if and when we finally grow the stones to turn our backs on their cheap, crappy goods they'll be in a position to replace enough business to weather the storm.

Here's hoping we're in the process of rebuilding the manufacturing of at least those products that are critical to our way of life and, quite literally, to the lives of many of our citizens.

On Russia: it seems they'll always have someone either at the helm or in the wings who's ready to expand their footprint/influence. There's probably nothing that can be done about that. Their biggest threat is low energy prices, which probably do more to constrain them and their ambitions than anything else. High oil and NG prices on the other hand, provide the funding for them to pretty much do what they want.

However things are sliced and diced we should strive to make any war an economic one, the price of which would be paid more in treasure than in blood, versus equal amounts of each.

_

[Rikao4]

well now...
we be screwed ..
not if..
just a matter of when...
be foolish not to..
wouldn't you..


Rika

[GH85Carrera]

I don't doubt when Russia and China strike, it will be at the same time. North Korea's rocket man will throw a few rockets up and plunge South Korea and Japan into crisis. Iran may see it as an opportunity to strike Israel, and we are all of sudden into WW3.

Our biggest asset is the stealthy subs. China and Russia both understand one sub can obliterate a vast part of either country if they get trigger happy with an attack. The Air Force will be the second layer of defense. Boots on the ground are not much help when the players are chunking nukes around. We can just hope MAD keeps them sane or we will be living in the stone age.

[93nav]

A couple of points on China that have I read multiple times from people who probably know a lot more than I.

- They are heavily dependent on imported coal and oil. These could be very easily blockaded.
- With their one child policy and children expected to support the parents in their old age, the general population is not going to be happy having a lot of their sons coming home in body bags.
- China has 10+/- years to do anything major, after that their demographics are going to be a big internal problem
- China and the USA are dependent on each other, seller and buyer.

Thru the pandemic, the thought had occurred to me that China could have acted while the rest of the world was severely distracted. I don't think that is the case anymore, also China is hosting the Olympics next year.

[Rick Lee]

China has a mighty big coastline for anyone to attempt to blockade. Even if they didn't have an increasingly powerful navy to defeat a blockade, South and East China Seas are ginormous chunks of space to blockade.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by 93nav

A couple of points on China that have I read multiple times from people who probably know a lot more than I.

- They are heavily dependent on imported coal and oil. These could be very easily blockaded.
- With their one child policy and children expected to support the parents in their old age, the general population is not going to be happy having a lot of their sons coming home in body bags.
- China has 10+/- years to do anything major, after that their demographics are going to be a big internal problem
- China and the USA are dependent on each other, seller and buyer.

Thru the pandemic, the thought had occurred to me that China could have acted while the rest of the world was severely distracted. I don't think that is the case anymore, also China is hosting the Olympics next year.

This ^^^ pretty much spells it out..

One thinks Ji is rattling sabers to intimidate Taiwan in a war of nerves..

All China has to do is be patient as the USA is a waning sun...

I am tired of chapter and versing all the negative out...so just listen to Congressman Chip Roy speech on the "House of free stuff."

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-politics-religion/1108240-house-free-stuff.html

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

China has a mighty big coastline for anyone to attempt to blockade. Even if they didn't have an increasingly powerful navy to defeat a blockade, South and East China Seas are ginormous chunks of space to blockade.

You took "blockade" literally? Oh well.

[cockerpunk]

Originally Posted by LWJ

I strongly believe that much of the division in the US has been amplified by these foreign actors. Which leads to both China and Russia believing that they can do anything they desire.

So, I pretty much agree with all of the above.

I think Russia is the weak link here. Lots of leverage that can be applied to them.

China? They control far too much production of critical items. Rare Earth Magnets comes to mind.

i mean they can. russia owns half of the voting public. they won the cold war, 30 years after they lost it because of facebook.

[Norm K]

Originally Posted by cockerpunk

i mean they can. russia owns half of the voting public.

All 81,000,000 of `em!

_

[93nav]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

China has a mighty big coastline for anyone to attempt to blockade. Even if they didn't have an increasingly powerful navy to defeat a blockade, South and East China Seas are ginormous chunks of space to blockade.

But how do you get into the South and East China Seas?

[Tervuren]

Refresh my memory, how many years was it between Germany holding the olympics, and the invasion of Poland by Germany?

Originally Posted by 93nav

I don't think that is the case anymore, also China is hosting the Olympics next year.