Will truck/suv prices tank ?

[fastfredracing]

At least 50% of the middle aged men have a 3 year old pick up in their driveway around here. Wondering if fuel prices will finally make people shift to smaller cars once again .
I have heard from a few customers who are unloading their suv's for compact cars .
Prices seem to be holding fast for now . My buddy sold his Colorado ( not normally a hot seller here ) for 14 k cash just the other day , first guy to call , showed up with money in hand , and did not haggle , so for now , they are still moving .
I'm keeping the dually and one beater work truck .
I'm setting my half ton free. I have no use for a light duty pick up . Ill keep the dually and pay the piper when I have to use it . Id rather daily a sports car again .
I can see prices sliding if fuel costs stay high .
Your thoughts?

[MRM]

No, because the economy is affecting people differently. A lot of people are in real pain right now and will be worse off for a long time until it starts to get better. People in this group won't be buying much, but they probably were already in a group where they would have been buying more economical vehicles anyway. But there is another group, a large group of people, who are relatively unaffected by inflation or are actually benefiting from it, and will continue to buy SUVs because the increased gas expense doesn't bother them.

The term for this two tier phenomenon is a K-shaped economy. https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/inflation-is-bringing-back-the-k-shaped-economy This is what happened back in the 70s when we had stagflation. It refers to times when the economy seems to break into two - one half of the K falls sharply in the poor side of the recovery chart while the other half is completely separated (hence the "K" rather than a "V"-shaped recovery) but is doing well at the same time the people on the other side of the "k" are suffering. It's extraordinarily unhealthy for the country and will cause political and economic issues for a generation.

Certainly there will be some people in group one who had been stretching to buy an SUV that will go back to a car, but this change is going to happen on the margins. I will make a prediction that over the next few years many of us are going to be watching huge fancy SUVs continue to jump off dealers' lots and we're going to be asking ourselves who can afford to drive them? The answer goes back to the two-tier K-shaped economy.

[tadd]

Ill be keeping my Unimog, but I can see more folks going to a European model... where you buy what you need, not buying something oversize to fit every need.

It is kind of absurd the number of full size pickups I see people communing to the office in by themselves. My commute is 70 miles one way. The Mercedes E250 bluetec gives me 45 mpg if I don't hit any traffic. I should be riding the ducati, but that is only 55 mpg.

[tadd]

Originally Posted by MRM

No, because the economy is affecting people differently. A lot of people are in real pain right now and will be worse off for a long time until it starts to get better. People in this group won't be buying much, but they probably were already in a group where they would have been buying more economical vehicles anyway. But there is another group, a large group of people, who are relatively unaffected by inflation or are actually benefiting from it, and will continue to buy SUVs because the increased gas expense doesn't bother them.
+++snip+++.

I agree with your analysis, but I would also say that the larger vehicles were for the affluent anyways. It has been a while since you could buy a 'basic' work truck. All the large vehicles are leather and every option. Heck, just adding diesel puts you over $50K easy.

There are plenty of FITs, Versas, and smaller cars on the road.

[LWJ]

I was wondering the same.

Last time gas was super high, I picked up a 3/4 Ton Suburban for $850.

Loved that rig!

[rockfan4]

I'm thinking about a different truck, so the answer is "no".
I'm off my schedule. The last 3 truck have been purchased at about 5 years old, and kept about 10 years, but rarely driven. '89 Silverado, 2000 F150 and now a 2010 Silverado that I bought in 2015. All extended cab, 8 foot bed, so a pain to park in any parking lot. Now that I'm working from home and sold my daily driver, I'm thinking a truck with a 6.5' or so bed might be easier to park for the times I do venture out.
My initial budget was $20k, but there's no trucks I want at that price range. So the budget keeps inching up, but I'm in no hurry.

My boss, and all the guys under 40 in his department drive full sized pickups. Only one of them is thinking of trading, and he wants a Ford Lightning if he could find one.

Anyone know the reliability of a 3.5 or 2.7 Ecoboost over 100K miles?

[Racerbvd]

Originally Posted by tadd

I agree with your analysis, but I would also say that the larger vehicles were for the affluent anyways. It has been a while since you could buy a 'basic' work truck. All the large vehicles are leather and every option. Heck, just adding diesel puts you over $50K easy.

There are plenty of FITs, Versas, and smaller cars on the road.

Check your numbers, they are starting well over $50k and easily go over a$100K.
When the rust repair is done on the mini Cooper, I use it more, but most like not any far trips.

[GH85Carrera]

If gas prices stay around 4 bucks a gallon, I suspect a lot of people will unload their giant SUVs and pickups. I see lots of people driving the humongous SUVs on the market now and there is usually just the driver inside. I was behind a hypermileing Suburban yesterday. We came to the hill and he slowed to 25 on a 50 MPH road.

[stevej37]

I doubt there would be much change...unless gas gets to $6/gal...jmo

[Jims5543]

Originally Posted by Racerbvd

Check your numbers, they are starting well over $50k and easily go over a$100K.
When the rust repair is done on the mini Cooper, I use it more, but most like not any far trips.

I forgot you had that!!!

I am trying to get my Pickup back on the road in the next month or two. Once I get this R53 sorted out, I am going to try to get the Pickup finished up. I swapped a newish 1275 in but found a lot of things done wrong so I am fixing a lot of stupid things.

I used to use it for work 1-2 days a week it gets really good gas mileage. I may use it more once I get it sorted.

[Arizona_928]

Diesel is over 5 dollars a gallon.

My Cummins sits in the driveway now until i need it. I won't sell bc a plain jane single cab is 56k new now. 4 year old fully loaded diesel trucks are in the mid 70's.

I'll just drive my 20 year old high mileage/ high mpg pos until the next election.

[Captain Ahab Jr]

Originally Posted by Jims5543

I forgot you had that!!!

I am trying to get my Pickup back on the road in the next month or two. Once I get this R53 sorted out, I am going to try to get the Pickup finished up. I swapped a newish 1275 in but found a lot of things done wrong so I am fixing a lot of stupid things.

I used to use it for work 1-2 days a week it gets really good gas mileage. I may use it more once I get it sorted.

Just did a quick check on your UK license plate

[Jims5543]

Originally Posted by Captain Ahab Jr

Just did a quick check on your UK license plate

LOL!! A year ago there was still a picture of that truck on P&L's Website.

Yup, it is still on there.

https://www.plminishop.com/shop.php?action=restorations

I need to get to my DMV and see about a custom tag with the same letters numbers DVL 74IT, I talked to a police friend and he said I could just run the British tag if an officer was bothered to pull me over and I had the correct tag behind the seat 99% chance he/she would let it slide. As he said, such a cool unique car, no one is going to give you crap over a tag.

[911boost]

My F350 is a 2012 and has been paid for so long I have zero desire to get rid of it. The math doesn’t work to pick up a smaller car just save on diesel. I work from home and have the motorcycles for when I need to go into the office, 60 miles each way.

I could easily make $ on my2021 LC if I sold it, but I have no idea what I would replace it with as I plan on keeping it for a long time and it’s a Toyota, so I will not be replacing that.

[cabmandone]

Most of the newer pickups and mid size SUV's are fairly fuel efficient so I'd say no. The Highlander I bought my wife gets about the same highway mileage as the 2008 4cyl Rav4 my son drives.

[Bill Douglas]

Originally Posted by cabmando

Most of the newer pickups and mid size SUV's are fairly fuel efficient so I'd say

Just guessing, this pickup would be fairly efficient.

[jcommin]

It maybe the 70s all over again. The Japanese offerings during that time took advantage and have never looked back

During the depression of the late 20s early 30s, many high end car makers went out of business but many remained because they made adjustments. The wealthy still bought high end cars. The strong survive, those that want to be don't.

I wouldn't panic if you can afford it.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Bill Douglas

Just guessing, this pickup would be fairly efficient.

Don't know. My brother's modern Mini S only gets 32mpg on the highway. My Highlander will get around 27-28mpg on the highway and I can put more people and more stuff in my Highlander.

[A930Rocket]

I have a 2014 F150 super crew lariat with the 5.0. 158K on the clock. No plans to sell or upgrade. I don’t keep track of my gas mileage, but I drive 250 miles a week.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

I'm thinking about a '73 850 Spider.