If it is headed for a populated area on descent they will make sure it does not get there... If wandering off into unpopulated areas, mountainous terrain etc, then it gets to play out how it plays out.

^I don't know what was going through their minds, but I live in this area.
Prior to where the plane went down, there is the city of waynesboro va. It's a big enough residential center, that must have been a factor if a population center was involved.

Basically, if it had gone down a minutes or two's earlier, it would have taken out a Lowes, Home Depot, Kohls, Cracker Barrel, KFC, etc... etc...

It cleared Waynesboro, and went kaput into the wilderness area further south.
Much further, it would have run into lexington/buena vista. areas. It probably would have tracked west of roanoke.

As to the title of the thread- Did it get shot down? If it did, it would have gotten nailed directly over the city of Waynesboro. Somebody would have seen/reported it.

If it got nailed south of Waynesboro, Stuart's draft residents would have reported it. This plane pretty much flew over the "hershey's" plant there.

All of the beachcombers at lake sherando would have heard it.

Basically, what I am saying it this- this was not an unpopulated area. Somebody in charge was s#$%ing their pants the plane would clear the "city" of Waynesboro before it ditched in the mountains, or it was high enough they weren't concerned. I "quote" city as that is a bit of a point of interpretation:) , but, this is a populated area.

Once Waynseboro gets cleared, no need in intercept unless it was pointing directly at Lexington in terms of track/descent. If Lexington not a concern, the plane would crash in farm/rural/ wooded area all the way to Blacksburg at least.

Interestingly, I was riding my bike up north of this area on sunday. I counted at least 6-8 F-16 flyovers at relatively low altitude in WV. Actually, I felt I was being "buzzed"Must have been some national guard training or something. Related to the incident? I don't know. But I felt I like I was pedaling through Ukraine. It was a bit surreal.

Seems as if it would cruise along at altitude until it ran out of fuel, and then drop like a rock? Like Leaky says .... it was pure luck.... a plane heading into the NE corridor of the US in similar circumstances would probably be extremely lucky to avoid population centers. It would be a tough call .... but probably the better of "no good options" imo.

It would not drop like a rock. It is a plane, not a helicopter

OK then ... a rock with wings ;)

But methinks once it's out of fuel, then depending upon the path, finding an unpopulated area might be "iffy" at best.

I wonder what the rate of descent was in this case and how many miles it went once it began?

^Wasn't there something in this thread (or elsewhere) where the f-16's broke off after a certain altitude? The quote seemed to infer they (fighter jets) couldn't go lower, but they let the plane descend. It would be interesting to know where they broke off.

Tell you what. I don't know who was in charge of this, but I would buy them a beer regardless. That's too much stress. :)

Actually, now that I look at the maps, triangulating from Washington to the crash site, the trajectory was closer to my house in Afton and also (my wife's house) in crozet(perhaps it split the difference between us and Waynesboro). By the time I got back to my wife's house after my bike ride, I sorta remember jets flying over (the sound), but I cannot recall.

Either way- I will buy who ever was in charge top shelf drinks all night long!

^^^^ How to make a marriage last?

Separate houses :D!

Yep.... somebody earned a beer sweating that out for sure....

Or paying for BOTH!!!! :)

Let's consider "My" Afton house the "vacation estate."

The data is on flightaware. It didn't go far once the descent began, and it fell as fast as 30k ft/minute once it started. It either lost power to one engine first (Dan Gryders theory) and went into an immediate spiral or lost airspeed until it stalled/spun in.

Gryder makes a good case for it not being hypoxia, but I still think/hope it was.