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A chat conversation I had with a Tesla fanboy today...

I jotted my thoughts down. I thought they were interesting, at least to me?

Quote:

As you know, in skiing, there’s a phrase, getting over your head on your skis. Difficult to recover. This is where Elon is right now.

I think hubris is his downfall - I’ve thought this for a while. I’m a big Elon fan, but like the fans of the Lakers or Dodgers, the clock starts over after ever game. You’re only as good as your last win, and if you get too cocky, then you’re going to be in big trouble.

This slowdown in electric cars was completely foreseeable. The Tesla wasn’t like the iPhone, where it was 100% completely obvious that it was a game changing technology that would catch on (I bought one on day one, but actually returned it as version 1.0 wasn’t actually usable in a business environment for actually making calls - but I knew that version 2 would be great).

The issue with the electric cars is the infrastructure, as we have discussed many, many times. Even if the world had a billion superchargers, the infrastructure experience is less desirable than a “quick fill up” at the station. Sure, the lowered costs, and coolness, and environmental benefits are good, but at the end of the day all of the non-first adopters don’t want to sit and wait for their car to charge. I certainly don’t.

I would buy one if I didn’t already have a whole bunch of cars. But then I would have to install a charger somewhere in my house / garage. I actually don’t have a garage space for charging - it would have to be outside (garage is fully of car projects). So, there’s that added hassle of installing the charger, along with the expense ($2500?). They would have to run a new 220V line to my garage underneath the house, which probably wouldn’t be terribly too much. But if one installs a Tesla charger at the house, will it work with any other cars? I don’t know, I have never researched that.

Back to Elon - this whole Twitter “hobby project” has 100% predictably had him take his eyeballs off of Tesla and now their luster is dulling. The only justification for the stock price has been their future growth, and now deliveries are declining. Time to re-evaluate as a typical car company stock, which means a big reduction. The PE of Tesla is 38. The PE of GM is 5.38. Tesls would have to decline by about 85% from its current level to be at the same PE level as GM. Food for thought.

Unfortunately, I think the chapter on Elon’s “over the skis” moment is just beginning. I think history will look back at this time period and wonder “what was he thinking?!?” The crowning example of his hubris has got to be this Tesla Cybertruck. It has all of the flaws and drawbacks of a typical electric car, plus it’s fairly ridiculous looking on the road. For a prototype design experiment, I think it’s kind of cool. History is littered with these concept cars. But Elon thinks just because he makes it, people will buy it. If one has read the Isaacson book, one will know that he only surrounds himself with people who agree with him. My good friend worked very closely with him, and said, “you learn very early on not to say ‘no’ to Elon”.

When my first kid was in kindergarten, we had a “Kindergarten sleepover” on the school lawn. I remember hanging out there with a parent I had just met, Jason. He had sold his company a few years back and he gave me some advice I have not taken, but I have also kept in mind. He said, “You’re not special. Everything you touch does not turn to gold. Don’t think that every venture you do will automatically be successful.” While this is not necessarily a good thing to hear for people who lack self confidence, it’s a good thing for people to keep in mind who might be “over confident”. It’s been good advice that I’ve kept in the back of my mind for the past 20 years or so. I think Elon needs someone like Jason.

Thoughts?

-Wayne

If you sell a product that only a portion of the population wants, and it lasts a very long time (relatively), and other manufacturers also start to build equivalent, or superior products, then the long-term outlook is bleak.

Never mind Elon's hubris, charging issues, cost-per-mile, performance, benefits (perceived and real), etc., the supply greatly exceeds demand right now, so basic economics will punish the entire industry.

And we are a long way from a massive change in demand, probably a full battery life cycle away.

I believe that the expression is, "getting ahead of your skis," which more accurately describes a terrifying moment on the mountain than, "getting over your head on your skis." :)

I mostly agree with the rest but it doesn't take a lot of insight to identify the current status of Tesla. It can be hard to remember how attractive the company and its products looked only a few short years ago. Now, the cars just look like a tired, boring design and they are so omnipresent on the road that they seem like the bumper cars at an old amusement park. All the same, plastic and rounded, in 4 or 5 boring colors. The cyber truck looks like it was designed in a psychiatric ward where the residents are forced to watch the moon landing on a continuous loop.

As for the stock, I'm hoping that it has some sort of bounce so that I can get out a little better than today.

And not to PARF this unnecessarily but it's inescapable that a large portion of the key demographic that has been buying his products now wants nothing to do with him or his company and is shopping elsewhere.

For the sake of the stock I hold, I was hoping against hope that people on shall we say, "the other side of the aisle," might start buying lots of Teslas but that's not a great fit. Yeah, they're ****ed. :)

If I was still commuting under 150 miles per day total driving I would likely get an electric car. Since my commute is 14 steps down the hall to my office, it makes no sense at all. I can fill up in a few minutes, and I don't go 3,000 miles a year in my daily driver.

No electric car can do what my 911 does, and take me on 12 hour drives through the deserts of California, Arizona and New Mexico, or get my 900 miles in a day with just one short fuel stop in some remote part of the country.

One of my friends has a Cybertruck on order. The demand is high, and he has been offered 35 grand for his place in line. He said that Tesla will send a certified electrician to install a home charging port that is a two way power transfer. So in a power outage his truck will power a home for up to three days. He has three other ICE cars, so he will be able to get out and about if needed.

It's "get out over your skis."

I (we) have a Tesla, and I frankly don't give a damn about the stock price, competition from other EV's, nor am I stressed about charging infrastructure (although it's behind demand, but doesn't affect my situation). I bought the car for practical and economic reasons. It's pretty obvious the future is tending in the direction of EV's. All the moaning and groaning about the home charging situation is mostly just that. I had an outlet for a compressor in my garage. The car came with a charger with an 18 ft. cord, so it was just a plug & go. My house is electrioc with solar panels that provided about 3mW extra capacity per year over what we used for the house. We use the car for about 95% grocery getter with occasional forays farther afield in the county. It has worked out perfectly for our situation over the past three years, and while I've done service on my Ford van, bike, tractors, etc., I've added air to the tires of the Tesla and windshield washer fluid once. I'm sure it will fall behind the times like all vihicles. That's to be expected, but if that type of vehicle doesn't meet your needs, don't get one.

You can charge other EVs using the Tesla (called NACS or North American Charging Standard) home charger, you just need an adapter. Same with the non-Tesla plug (called J1772/CCS - combination charging system), an adapter will allow you to charge Teslas.

The industry is shifting to the Tesla plug. By the end of 2025, most every car sold in N. America will be "NACS native" so no fiddling with adapters.

The thing no one ever talks about is how the government wants EVs to succeed and replace ICE vehicles. Yet, I'm fairly certain that GSA hasn't started converting the Fed's fleet of vehicles to EV. So it is more of a 'do as I say' issue rather than follow my lead issue.

I'm with Glen on this: having lived in El Paso with family in San Antonio; if I can't drive an EV that distance without some lengthy stop to re-charge then I'm not interested.

Government should let the market decide...but there I go again, thinking government should be logical.

How long before the move?

Anyone?

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it seems odd that All of Europe, China, New Zealand, Korea and Canada can all move to e- vehicles easily and in the U.S. it's an Us against Them thing. Media, hyper-capitalism and a total lack of critical thinking isn't such a great mix. Who knew.

Quote:

Originally Posted by matthewb0051 (Post 12232522)

USPS has started to create an EV fleet after years of planning. And every school bus with solar panels on its roof should be e- as well.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Seahawk (Post 12232531)

Never

Just delete the posts in violation.

Musk should never run an established company, he's really bad at it. He should focus on what made him great in so many's eyes: start-ups based on new technology that create paradigm shifts. God I hate consultant-speak but it's appropriate here.

Musk is the same thing as elevating top sales people to managers. Foolish. They are sales people. They are not good managers. Same same Musk, he's a visionary, he's not a manager.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1990C4S (Post 12232422)

(snip) If you sell a product that only a portion of the population wants, ....

Worse is when, by way of the the tax code, the larger portion of the population that doesn't want the product is compelled to help those who do, pay for it.

_

I heard promises from Amazon. I haven't seen one electric truck yet. Checking Mr. Google I see 10,000 Rivians out of 100K vehicles total. Not here.

AFA a clean fleet goes, Long Beach has some hybrids, some LNG (CNG and RNG) and maybe a few EV's. The majority of the city buses use nat gas. The building inspectors and others in the field use hybrids. Cops drive IC -SUV's

Amazon is a major shareholder in Rivian and has a contract with the company to build and supply e- delivery vans. Stock is not doing well but should if they can get their act together. Rivian had a deal with Mercedes that fell apart because they couldn't deliver. That was a year or two ago I think.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 12232545)

Never

Just delete the posts in violation.

Great. I have been looking for a replacement so I can go back to the scrum and complain about the next Mod.

I recommend you call Matt and volunteer. I'll be delighted to help with the easy transition.

Best.

Well,

Of course, my take is a little different. Elon figured out how to absorb into his portfolio a couple hundred billion dollars. No matter what happens to Tesla, X, Spacex or anything else Elon owns, he can coast to the finish line if he chooses.