Pelican Parts Forums - Bayesian sinking

Pelican Parts Forums (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/)

- Off Topic Discussions (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/)

- - Bayesian sinking (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/1165911-bayesian-sinking.html)

Bayesian sinking

It will be interesting to find out what caused the ship to sink so fast. From captain statement it doesn’t sound like he was ready at all. If they find the retracting keel was up and engines were off, I suspect the captain will be facing serious charges in an Italian court.

My guess is that the keel was retracted. A similar size yacht the M5 has minimum 12.5' and max 33.5' keel depth, substantial difference. I saw the M5 sitting at dock last year, it is quite the ship/super yacht.

I had to look up what you were talking about.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/21/within-a-few-minutes-there-was-nothing-left-sailors-on-sinking-of-bayesian-superyacht

I'm not sure if the captain looks more like Kurt Russel or Robin Williams. LOL

Quote:

Fishers in the Sicilian village of Porticello who witnessed the Bayesian superyacht sink rapidly in a violent storm on Monday say that the vessel was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

But for Italian prosecutors investigating the incident, their focus will be on whether the captain and crew took all the necessary safety measures to prevent the tragedy.

Prosecutors from the nearby town of Termini Imerese questioned the yacht’s captain, 51-year-old James Cutfield, from New Zealand, for more than two hours on Tuesday.

Divers scouring the wreck have reportedly found the bodies of five missing persons. The UK tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch; his teenage daughter Hannah Lynch; the Morgan Stanley International chair, Jonathan Bloomer; his wife, Judy; and the Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife, Neda, have been missing since the vessel went down Monday morning. The body of the yacht’s chef, Recaldo Thomas, was located shortly after the vessel sank.

Karsten Borner, 69, the captain of a nearby sailboat that was the first to assist it on Monday, said: “I have never seen a vessel of this size go down so quickly. Within a few minutes, there was nothing left.”

Rescuers are working on the assumption that the boat sank quickly after being hit by a tornadic waterspout. The fact that other vessels nearby – like Borner’s small boat – did not sink is an indication of the localised nature of the event.

According to La Repubblica, divers who carried out underwater inspections of the boat reported that the hatch was open, although this has not been confirmed by officials. If this was the case, large amounts of water could have entered through the gap, potentially destabilising the vessel.

Gabriele Bruni, a sailor who has twice participated in the America’s Cup and has coached the Italian Olympic team, said: “An open hatch on a large ship like the Bayesian can withstand the entry of small amounts of water but, in the case of strong storms, it wouldn’t prevent the entry of large amounts of water.”

“It seems plausible to me that the water entered from somewhere,” Bruni added. “Otherwise, a boat like this wouldn’t have sunk so quickly.”

Other sources told Italian media that the boat’s mobile keel was partially raised. According to data from the Perini Navi shipyard, which built the Bayesian, the vessel was equipped with a system capable of lowering the keel to a depth of up to 10 metres.

“It’s clear that a lowered keel would have provided more stability to the sailboat in case of strong winds,” Bruni commented. “However, it should also be noted that these vessels often cannot lower the mobile keel completely, especially when near a port. A keel with a depth of 10 meters could easily get stuck among the rocks on the seabed.”

Fabio Cefalù, a 36-year-old fisher from Porticello who was one of the first to attempt to provide assistance to the Bayesian, said he arrived at the port at 3.30am for a fishing trip and saw the first flashes of lightning.

“At 3.55, a mini tornado arrived,” Cefalù said. “The docks of the port diverted it and it hit the sailboat head-on.”
Image of a harbour with the red light from an emergency rocket visible
Francesco Lo Coco took an image of an emergency rocket launched from the Bayesian’s life raft. Photograph: Francesco Lo Coco

The yacht sank shortly after 4.10am. An exclusive photo obtained by the Guardian from a local fisher showed the moment an emergency rocket was launched from its life raft at 4.35 am.

Francesco Lo Coco, who took the image, said: “I went out on the balcony because I have two boats moored in the harbour and I was worried about the approaching storm. Suddenly, I saw the sailboat rocking. I grabbed my phone to take the picture. The emergency rocket was launched while the sailboat was already sinking.”

Investigators are trying to determine why most of the crew survived while six guests and the chef died.

Nicola Romana, an expert in transport and tourism law at the Department of Economic Sciences at the University of Palermo, told La Repubblica: “In maritime accidents, there is almost always a human error at the root of it. In this case, a catastrophic event has also played a role. The crew of a ship of that size must be prepared for anything.”

Bruni said: “The captains and crew of a vessel like the Bayesian are not chosen at random. We are talking about the best professionals in the world. If there’s a storm, the captain must first call the crew to try to right the vessel and take all necessary measures to avoid a shipwreck.

“The sudden storm or mini tornado would have caught them off guard while they were attempting to do what was necessary to ensure the safety of the passengers.

“Unfortunately, they didn’t make it in time. But these are all speculations for now. We’ll have to wait for the end of investigations to understand the causes of the incident.”

“I am incredulous about what happened to a yacht like this,” he added. “If they had asked me that night, in a stormy day, in which sailboat in the world I would have wanted to be, I would have chosen the Bayesian.”

More info:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_(yacht)

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article may be affected by a current event. Information in this article may change rapidly as the event progresses. Initial news reports may be unreliable. The last updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. Please feel free to improve this article (but note that updates without valid and reliable references will be removed) or discuss changes on the talk page. (August 2024) (Learn how and when to remove this message)
Bayesian
Other names Salute
Class Sailing superyacht
Year Built 2008
Builder Perini Navi
Year Rebuilt 2016
Builder Perini Navi
Owner(s) Angela Bacares
Fate Sank around 4–5 am local time on 19 August 2024 off the coast of Palermo, Sicily
Specifications
Type Sailing superyacht
Construction Aluminium hull
Length 56 m (184 ft)
Cruising Speed 12 kn
Crew 10
Notes
Notes Voted best interior at the International Superyacht Society Awards 2008 and best sailing yacht over 45 metres at the 2009 World Superyacht Awards
Bayesian was a 56-metre (184 ft) sailing superyacht, built as Salute by Perini Navi at Viareggio, Italy, and delivered in 2008.[1] The ship was last refitted in 2020[2] and was in the beneficial ownership of Angela Bacares, wife of the technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch, when it sank on 19 August 2024.[3]

Design and construction
Bayesian was a flybridge sloop designed by Ron Holland and built with a 56 m (184 ft) aluminium hull and a single-masted cutter rig. The 75 m (246 ft) aluminium mast was designed for the yacht and at the time was the world's tallest. It was one of the world's largest sailing yachts. The yacht featured a traditional aft cockpit and an additional 60 m2 (650 sq ft) fully-encloseable cockpit forward. The interior was outfitted in Japanese style by the French design company Rémi Tessier Design.[4] The yacht was voted as best interior at the International Superyacht Society Awards 2008 and best sailing yacht over 45 metres at the 2009 World Superyacht Awards.[5] The yacht had a lifting keel, allowing its draft to be reduced from 10m to 4m.[6]

History
The yacht, allocated IMO Number 9503392, was ordered by Dutch entrepreneur Eric Albada Jelgersma [nl] (1939–2018), but in 2005 he was paralysed in a yachting accident and it was sold on completion in 2008 to Dutch property developer John Groenewoud and named Salute.[7][8][9] In November 2014 it was sold to Revtom Ltd., an Isle of Man company owned by Angela Bacares, wife of the technology entrepreneur Mike Lynch, and renamed Bayesian,[7][9] a reference to Bayesian inference, which was used in statistical machine learning by Lynch's company Autonomy Corporation.[10] From then, the yacht was registered in the United Kingdom, with London as port of registry, and was managed since 2022 by Camper & Nicholsons International, Geneva.[7][9]

Sinking and aftermath
Bayesian sank in the early morning of 19 August 2024. The yacht was anchored off Porticello (township of Santa Flavia), a small fishing village about 15 kilometres (9.3 mi) east of Palermo, Sicily.[11][12] An attorney for Lynch said that the passengers had intended to celebrate Lynch's acquittal on fraud charges. Among those on board were members of his defence team.[13] The Bayesian sank quickly after capsizing whilst at anchor during a storm and sank to a depth of 50 metres (160 ft).

According to witnesses, the yacht was struck by a waterspout during a powerful storm.[14] There were initial reports that that boat's mast may have snapped causing the vessel to become unbalanced. But search and rescue divers later noted that the ship seemed to be intact, suggesting the mast might not have broken. Other factors in the capsize could have included water entering through hatches and doors which may have been left open.[15][14]

The ship was carrying 10 crew and 12 passengers, of whom 15 were rescued.[16][17] The Italian Coast Guard confirmed the identity of those missing. A team of specialist divers descended to the wreck repeatedly. They reached the main bridge but found it challenging to search further inside for victims due to furnishings obstructing their passage and the limited dive time of ten minutes at the wreck.[18][19][20][21][excessive citations]

Survivors
Survivors included Angela Bacares and two New Zealanders: lawyer Ayla Ronald and the captain, James Catfield.[22][23]

Confirmed dead
Recaldo Thomas, Antiguan citizen born in Canada, crew member of the Bayesian, and ship's cook.[24]
Missing
Although five bodies[25] have been recovered from the wreck (in addition to Recaldo Thomas), none of them have yet been formally identified.[26][note 1] The missing are:

Mike Lynch, founder of Autonomy Corporation and Invoke Capital, age 59[27]
Hannah Lynch, daughter of Angela Bacares and Mike Lynch, age 18[28][29]
Jonathan Bloomer, chairman of Morgan Stanley International[30][31]
Judy Bloomer, wife of Jonathan Bloomer[29]
Christopher J. Morvillo, partner at Clifford Chance US LLP[32]
Neda Morvillo (or Neda Nassiri), jewellery designer and wife of Christopher Morvillo[29][33]
Notes
According to BBC News: "[The Italian authorities] have so far declined to identify the bodies, despite reports from local and international media on some of their names. This is likely because the authorities are waiting to recover all six bodies before contacting the victims' families. According to Italian law, the bodies must be formally identified by a family member, or a person close to the victims, before the deaths can be officially certified."[26]

Yeah, a 30 ft keel would limit where the boat could go to ports transited by full size ships more or less. Suspect it was up or mostly up. Hit by a waterspout, good lord.

Classic case of a knock over by the powerful winds.
Windows in the hull don't belong near the waterline.

Quote:

Originally Posted by unclebilly (Post 12306809)

https://www.yachtcharterfleet.com/luxury-charter-yacht-22774/bayesian-photos.htm

Jesus!

Quote:

Originally Posted by pwd72s (Post 12306858)

Jesus!

Like it? Don't waste your money on those starbucks lattes and a boat like that could be yours.

I'm still shocked it went down like that. It looks like it was engineered but I guess not.

Ironic it was named Bayesian.

Terrible tragedy but it sounds like wrong place at the wrong time . Mother Nature when angry can be quite cruel . RIP to those that passed . I wonder if the ship can be saved or scrapped .

^^^^ Yep ... tragedy happens when Mother Nature gets angry.

RIP....

There is a YouTube describing that boats design - sunken, large, swimming-pool-type room around the mast. If the boat heals over water is likely to go in there. I think it was that video that showed a large sailboat in the harbor being pushed over nearly 90 degrees by the wind gust. That was with no sails up. So the gust was considerable. I'll try to find the video if people are interested.

According to some colleagues in the UK, there's a bit of legal issue surrounding the owner or something. Something about Autonomy, a partner getting hit by a car and killed only a few days prior and this guy getting off of some charge and then killed a few weeks later. Conspiracy folks are talking.

Must have been a weather controlling satellite that is controlled by someone that wanted to take the guy out or something.

Quote:

Originally Posted by masraum (Post 12307057)

Sounds like something out of a Bond movie. Shaken, not stirred.....

Quote:

Originally Posted by URY914 (Post 12307060)

Sounds like something out of a Bond movie. Shaken, not stirred.....

Worked out better than hiring Jason Bourne to take out Wombosi.

Quote:

Originally Posted by masraum (Post 12307068)

Worked out better than hiring Jason Bourne to take out Wombosi.

I agree with you there. Bourne blew that mission for sure.
I've been looking for work as an asset but haven't fund any openings yet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by p911dad (Post 12306951)

Ironic it was named Bayesian.

I know, right? I guess "high probability of sinking one day" wouldn't fit on the transom.

Tragic loss of life, and it was a beautiful vessel.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

The boat, owned by the deceased's wife via a corp of some sort, had the deceased tech billionaire, his daughter, lawyer and some others on it celebrating his recent acquittal on fraud charges in the US. His co defendent died after being hit by a car within a week or so of this.

The tech guy and his co defendant sold a software company to HP for big $$ and HP was, iirc, alleging fraud on the sellers part.

My daughter's reaction was 'it appears God disagreed with the court's decision'.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/yacht-sank-sicily-due-endless-181647907.html

The sinking of the luxury Bayesian yacht off the coast of Sicily this week resulted from an "endless chain of errors" by the crew, the ship maker's CEO is speculating.

"This episode sounds like an unbelievable story, both technically and as a fact," Giovanni Costantino — who leads The Italian Sea Group, the company that now owns Perini Navi, which built the Bayesian in 2008 — said, accord

Quote:

Originally Posted by berettafan (Post 12307196)

my daughter's reaction was 'it appears god disagreed with the court's decision'.

lol!

More details not looking good for the captain:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/yacht-sank-sicily-due-endless-181647907.html

Yacht Sank in Sicily Due to ‘Endless Chain of Errors,' Ship Maker's Owner Speculates: ‘Everything Was Predictable’

Maybe captain wanted to batten down hatches but rich owner insisted on having a party, so doors/hatches were open, people were wandering around above-decks with cocktails and crew was scattered around serving canapes not at battle stations, tornado / spout knocked the boat down, water entered too fast for crew not themselves injured to recover the situation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by David (Post 12307285)

Well yeah... he's alive and has a stake in the outcome, and everyone responsible is dead. He's getting ahead of the media blame game.

I guess I'm surprised a big beautiful and very expensive boat like that would be allowed to make itself unseaworthy. Pretty much job one is to not sink to the bottom. Retractable keel? Sure, but there should be some a mechanical system that fires into action if the boat tips too far.

Its like if gulfstream would let me order a g800 with windows that could be rolled down while at altitude. Some things are just a terrible idea and canapes be damned.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl (Post 12307391)

That was what I had been thinking too. And at about 4 am they had gone to be and had the windows open to let some fresh air in. I read somewhere that it dragged the anchor for quite some time. They should have just lost the anchor and I'm sure the boat would have managed the conditions better.

I expected to see a discussion about Bayesian Statistics. My bad.

Quote:

Originally Posted by berettafan (Post 12307196)

My daughter's reaction was 'it appears God disagreed with the court's decision'.

More likely some alphabet agency. ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ramonesfreak (Post 12307542)

^^worth the watch. Chris Freer designer is one of the few intelligent persons to comment on this tragedy so far.

I was actually watching that very video when I checked this forum earlier today. It amazes me that a vessel would have doors like that. A door = hole in the hull.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Quote:

Originally Posted by zakthor (Post 12307403)

I guess I'm surprised a big beautiful and very expensive boat like that would be allowed to make itself unseaworthy. Pretty much job one is to not sink to the bottom. Retractable keel? Sure, but there should be some a mechanical system that fires into action if the boat tips too far.

Why would the keel be up? The ship sank in 160 ft of water. The draft with the keel down is about 30 feet. There's no risk of touching bottom. So why raise the keel? A lower keel will result in lower rolling motion, even if at anchor. Would that increase roll frequency enough to noticeably make the boat less comfortable?

My understanding is the keel in the down position will bang around in the keel box while at anchor. For this reason it was common practice to leave the keel in the up position while at anchor. I would imagine the keel would make a significant amount of noise banging around in a steel box.

So a sailboat keel isn’t rigidly fixed in place? It has some lateral play?

Some are retractable, vertically

Also read some thoughts about the mast being 240 ft and so may have snagged the bottom, holding the boat down

Quote:

Originally Posted by berettafan (Post 12308096)

So a sailboat keel isn’t rigidly fixed in place? It has some lateral play?

Some boats will have a fixed keel, and some will have retractable keels, mostly for trailering. When I was a teenager, we had a 24 foot Venture that had a swing keel. It is my guess that the Bayesian had a retractable keel so that it could enter shallower ports? Otherwise, I don't really understand why it would have had a retractable keel.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

https://youtu.be/JDuHT1d1Xu0?si=I4t_nZq0FsESvnDX

In this video, you will see footage of a storm in New Zealand showing another large sailing yacht that is shown drastically heeling over and then rights itself back up. It had a fixed keel. There is also mention of a catamaran that was flipped over. Catamarans do not have a traditional keel like a monohull would have.

The builder of the Bayesian said the vessel was "unsinkable" because it had several water tight compartments, which is an absurd thing to say, hmmm, I can remember someone else claiming their vessel was "unsinkable" and we all know how that turned out.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

If the sea wants you, it will take you. Pretty much the way it is.

I had no idea it's mast was that tall.