bipartisan crappy economy

[mikester]

So...I don't think that even with a Dem in the office that the economy will get better for very long.

The talk of late is that oil prices could top $60 a barrel by the end of the year because demand out reaches supply so drasticly lately.

If that has even a little truth to it (say $50) how long will our economy sustain itself when it is so dependant on the price of oil and price of gas?

Right how our refining capability is maxed which really I believe a major contributing factor the price of gas here. Still, if oil prices continue to rise as they have I think it's safe to speculate that our economy will not be able to sustain paying that price and start to falter.

In that case, which is the better remedy? More refineries and more oil drilling or alternative and fuel saving measures?

Am I wrong to suspect this as being a hug hurdle for our economy?

Good questions. I guess I wonder why the refineries are maxed out right now compared to last year.

[Moneyguy1]

Other parts of the world are ramping up their use of energy; auto sales in China, India and so on. Unless we can come up with alternatives to gasoline, I do not think the situation is going to get any better.

As to whether the refineries are maxed out, I think the majority of citizens do not trust "big oil" anymore. It is difficult to say, given the reports of refineries being "down for maintenance" and the like.....

[mikester]

Demand has grown I'm sure, especially with more SUV sales. I recall that last summer the same arguments were made that the refineries (at least here in CA) were at capacity, I could be wrong though.

[BlueSkyJaunte]

Originally posted by Mark Wilson
Good questions. I guess I wonder why the refineries are maxed out right now compared to last year.

Stock holders' demands to see higher and higher profts, coupled with greedy boards and an inability to plan beyond the end of the quarter.

[arcsine]

I think the time is right to admit that oil reserves are not infinate and that within the next 20-100 years (depending on who you talk to) fossil oil supplies will run dry. There are lots of altenative fuel possibilities each with their own issues so bite the bullet, chose an alternative fuel, build the infrastructure to make and distribute it.

I am not implying that it will be an easy process but if you think it is bad now, wait until supplies are truly running dry and look at the social and economic effect.

[turbo6bar]

Originally posted by Gary Carlton
I think the time is right to admit that oil reserves are not infinate and that within the next 20-100 years (depending on who you talk to) fossil oil supplies will run dry. There are lots of altenative fuel possibilities each with their own issues so bite the bullet, chose an alternative fuel, build the infrastructure to make and distribute it.

I am not implying that it will be an easy process but if you think it is bad now, wait until supplies are truly running dry and look at the social and economic effect.

I agree, but is anyone here changing their ways because of impending energy issues? I doubt it. Fact is it's easier to just keep running straight than turn left. I feel any worthwhile effort must be jointly supported by the government AND each individual. Whether that means selling the Porsche to drive a VW TDI or merely cutting down on wasteful trips to the liquor store, everybody needs to change. Additionally, I would support government subsidies for energy saving measures: solar water heaters, better insulation for homes, or perhaps even tax breaks for those who carpool. Yeah, it sounds cheesy, but there's a lot of potential. In this arena, I wholeheartedly support smart legislation (from either party) free from special interests.

I would not advocate alternative energy sources as a primary goal, because that's long-term. We need short-term solutions. Put alternative energy on the second rung of the ladder. Just my opinion.

[Mulholland]

Originally posted by Moneyguy1
As to whether the refineries are maxed out, I think the majority of citizens do not trust "big oil" anymore.

What role do you think the environmentalists and their political arm, the Democrat party, have played in that impression?...I would posit they have been beating the drum of "big oil" demonization in order to polarize (i.e. divide) the nation, thereby cultivating votes. Therefore, just like the world distrusting GW Bush, the American people have been TAUGHT to distrust "big-oil" by those who have interest in manufacturing the opposition.

Therefore, the fear is a manufacture, a fabrication, a scare tactic.

[john70t]

Do two wrongs make a right?
Certainly three lefts do, though

[mikester]

Originally posted by turbo6bar
I agree, but is anyone here changing their ways because of impending energy issues? I doubt it. Fact is it's easier to just keep running straight than turn left. I feel any worthwhile effort must be jointly supported by the government AND each individual. Whether that means selling the Porsche to drive a VW TDI or merely cutting down on wasteful trips to the liquor store, everybody needs to change. Additionally, I would support government subsidies for energy saving measures: solar water heaters, better insulation for homes, or perhaps even tax breaks for those who carpool. Yeah, it sounds cheesy, but there's a lot of potential. In this arena, I wholeheartedly support smart legislation (from either party) free from special interests.

I would not advocate alternative energy sources as a primary goal, because that's long-term. We need short-term solutions. Put alternative energy on the second rung of the ladder. Just my opinion.

Well, most days I take the bus to work rather than the 911.

$1.75 per trip and I get to take a nap - though - they've been pretty crowded of late...

[Moneyguy1]

WEll, for years I took the bus to and from work, Winter and Summer in Upstate New York!

All my adult life I have driven "smaller" vehicles, none bigger than a Ford LTD II V6. (man, I loved that car...it was a station wagon and could haul just about everything)

There are a lot of people that do the same, not so much for the environment, but to save on expense. Taking the bus cost me $2.80 a day. Parking alone was $5.00 Do the math. Driving a smaller vehicle works out the same..lower insurance, lower operating cost, and in addition, I have not purchased a new vehicle since 1977. Let the other guy pay through the nose for the first year or two depreciation.

Sad as iit may be, the only way to change folk's energy habits is to increase the price. The addition of a national gas tax to be used solely for research into alternatives may be hard to take, but it may be vital to our future.

[techweenie]

On another thread here on Pelican, a member has stated that his next 'family vehicle' will be a '72 Suburban.

Discussions of the excesses of individuals using 4500+ lb. vehicles as personal transport inflame truck owners who seem to think the 'right' to drive absurdly large vehicles is somewhere there in the constitution.

A fair amount of oil revenue goes to Saudi Arabia where many anti-American terrorist groups get their major funding.

A $10 rise in oil price per barrel equals a 0.25% drop in GNP.

We're in deep doo doo, even setting aside controversial climatic impact. And yet the issue is just an annoyance to most Americans.

I have to agree with Moneyguy1 (as I often do) that the priceof gas may have to go back up -- and stay up. I hate that the only way to assure that is a tax, because that probably means it will not happen.

[Rot 911]

I think for once both sides of the Pelican political board are in agreement. I don't think anyone envisioned China's hunger for oil and for steel happening this quickly. They have now become a big kid in the sand box. I think we can all agree that China is not going to work very hard at reducing their need for oil or steel. I don't think it is going to matter what anyone does to help improve the economy if we don't address the oil issue. Just look at the stocks of companies that are oil dependent such as FedEx, UPS, the airlines, tire companies, etc. By the time gas prices get to a level that really scares U.S. consumers, and I personally think that level is $3.00 a gallon, the economy will be tanked.

[JavaBrewer]

$3.00 in Texas, that would mean $4.00 here in Cali. I think a lot of soccer mom SUV drivers won't sweat it until the gas goes North of $4.00. People paying $45K+ for an luxury SUV arn't going to give a crap about $20-$40 extra for a tank of gas.

[techweenie]

Originally posted by Kurt V
I don't think anyone envisioned China's hunger for oil and for steel happening this quickly.

Boy howdy.

There's a show on Speed Channel that covered the Beijing Auto Show and the $150K cars were the hottest thing going. China has quickly become a huge market for 2-ton plus cars(!)

[john70t]

I had heard(not sure) China has a 10 year total lock on Argentinian steel, one of the biggest suppliers.
If so they will be the next industrial giant (if they aren't already), and the prediction is many if not most autos will be coming from that sector of the world within 10 years. With tech going to India and manufacturing to Mexico and China, the US better have an ace in the sleeve.

[350HP930]

Originally posted by john70t
the US better have an ace in the sleeve.

Yup, its called the strongest military in the world.

War is the traditional response to the colapse of economic systems.