The Folklore of Election '04

[fintstone]

Monday, Nov. 15, 2004
The Folklore of Election '04
Debunking the falsehoods springing from this November's contest
TIME magazine

By KAREN TUMULTY

Few political rituals are so honored as overreading the results of an election. In the rush to explain this one, at least six myths have taken root:

A tidal wave of churchgoers won the day. As Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin notes, the percentage of the voting electorate that attends church once a week was 42%—precisely what it was in 2000. And President Bush's percentage of that vote was 58%, up a mere point from 2000. Bush's greatest gains came among voters who attend church less often, including an increase of 4 percentage points of those who never go.


People based their votes on their moral values. Though 22% cited their moral values as the deciding issue, the percentage that cited one of the two biggest foreign policy issues, Iraq and terrorism, was significantly higher—34%. And it turns out that a "moral value" is in the conscience of the beholder. In a poll due out this week from the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank, 42% of respondents said the war in Iraq was the most important moral issue influencing their vote, compared with 13% who chose abortion and less than 10% who chose gay marriage.

All the hype about young voters was wrong; they stayed home, as they always do. Yes and no. After a lengthy slide in youth voting, nearly 21 million under-30 voters showed up at the polls this year, a 9% increase from 2000. But since just about everyone else showed up in bigger numbers too, their percentage of the total electorate was roughly what it was four years ago.

The hundreds of millions George Soros and other Bush foes poured into turning out the Democratic base was a waste. The outcome may not have been to their liking, but the Democrats' efforts paid off. Kerry got about 4.1 million votes more than Al Gore did four years ago. And nearly 60% of that increase can be found in the states that were targeted by the independent groups. What they didn't count on: that the Republican turnout operation produced an even bigger surge of 8.2 million votes nationally for Bush.

The country has moved to the right on social issues. TIME's polling suggests that voters remain where they have been for a very long time: in the moderate middle on the most sizzling social issues. They overwhelmingly favor (69% to 22%) using discarded embryos for stem-cell research; only 9% oppose abortion in all circumstances; and while 58% say they oppose gay marriage, about the same number—60%—approve of some kind of official recognition of gay unions, an AP poll says.

John Kerry didn't lose the election; it was stolen. Conspiracy theories abound on left-leaning websites—particularly about Florida and Ohio, the two states that determined the outcome. None of them seem to be holding up. Why, for instance, did Bush win many Florida counties where the majority of registered voters are Democrats? Those areas in the northern and central parts of the state have long traditions of voting Republican in presidential contests.

[Don 944 LA]

good info..

I as a " anyone but Bush " found it hard to vote for Kerry, due to limited understanding of the man. He was too busy defending the swiftboat attacks to actually let the American people know his platform.. Bush's political machine did a fine job of digging a hole for Kerry to dlimb out of.

Don

[john70t]

It's amazing what results you can get from paperless electronic poll stations that ran on the security of Windows, were consistently broken in "Democratic" areas, and often gave overwhelming results in favor Bush regardless of traditional demographics.


The Dems don't seem to be fighting very hard for this one, mabye because they're waiting for the $500Billion DEFICIT to wreck the economy first, so the woman will win against the foreigner in '08.
Or mabye two fat pigs can learn to share the public trough.

[red-beard]

It is amazing that even in the face of evidence to the contrary, conspriacy theorists continue to believe.

Note to self: Buy land in Roswell

[red-beard]

Occam's razor.

Has _ANYONE_ heard of Occams's Razor?

[Halm]

Originally posted by Don 944 LA
. . . He was too busy defending the swiftboat attacks to actually let the American people know his platform..
Don

Don interesting comment, but I am confused. Every Democratic "talking head" I heard said the opposite: That Kerry lost the election because his advisors (all former Clinton operatives) told him not to dignify the charges by responding.

And by the way, what WAS his platform? Other than talk about reestablishing an alliance with the CORRUPT, Oil for Food grabbing French, Germans and Russians, I never heard him say anything except he could do it better.

[kach22i]

Originally posted by fintstone
Conspiracy theories abound on left-leaning websites—particularly about Florida and Ohio, the two states that determined the outcome. None of them seem to be holding up.

1. The provisional ballots are being contested (in the courts) by the "Demorcats" in Ohio.

2. The Ohio recount will happen, funded by the Libertarian/Green party alliance. It will happen December 6th-12th.

3. No votes are official yet, when they are they will be contested and reviewed for accuracy.

4. No electorial votes have been cast, I think that's not until Jan 6th.. Remember the founding fathers put in the electorial college for last minute course changes based on recounts and other events that may come into play.

5. Just because it's not on the front page does not mean there is nothing happening under the radar.

6. Don't hold your breath, but don't take your eye off the ball either.

[Z-man]

Don 944 LA
I as a " anyone but Bush " found it hard to vote for Kerry, due to limited understanding of the man. He was too busy defending the swiftboat attacks to actually let the American people know his platform.. Bush's political machine did a fine job of digging a hole for Kerry to dlimb out of.

I think the reason it was so difficult to understand Kerry's platform is because his platform was too vague - he took the 'the the candidate for all people' too far. If you were for gun control, Kerry's your man. If you were AGAINST gun control, Kerry's your man. If you were pro-religion, KERRY's your man. If you were against religion, Kerry's your man...
All joking about flip-flopping aside, Kerry did try to 'befriend' a wide variety of demographics, and IMHO, that may have been his downfall.

Originally posted by Halm
And by the way, what WAS his platform?

Kerry had a plan.

I really can't provide any details of his plan, since HE didn't provide any details himself!

-Z-man.

[Overpaid Slacker]

Kach -
I agree w/ your post, and especially with
5. Just because it's not on the front page does not mean there is nothing happening under the radar.

Like good news in Iraq, or W admin. diplomatic successes, etc.

I suspect, however, that if there were measurable chances for state results being overturned, we'd have heard about it. I'd bet a buck that there are plenty of electoral mavens on either side that are still keeping an eye on it. If things were likely to flip CBS/CNN/etc. would be all over it.

But, true, the fat lady hasn't officially sung.

JP

[304065]

You know you are beating a dead horse when:

1) You claim that the ACTUAL polling was tampered with based on data taken from an unscientific EXIT POLL; and

2) You claim that based on registrations and "voter demographics," the ACTUAL poll was tampered with.

Hell, why even hold an election in the first place? Why not just determine the outcome based on registrations? Why give the voter credit for the exercise of judgment or free will?

Why not assume that someone thinks/votes a particular way merely as a result of their membership of a "demographic?"

[gaijinda]

The scientific world, the business world, not to mention my own sound judgement over the girl I met Saturday night can be misled by wishful thinking.

No wonder the media, the moveon.bores and the rest are so perturbed over this election..

[Leader]

Always a favorite from Logic 101 - Occam's Razor:
"One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything."
Works in physics, math, and (dare I say it) life in general.

[john70t]

quote:"It is amazing that even in the face of evidence to the contrary, conspriacy theorists continue to believe."

-The electorial process couldn't give a hoot about internet babbling either way, but it was a FACT that on numerous independant testings the machines spit out results in favor of Bush regardless of imput.
If there's nothing to hide, why are some 'pubs so fiercely defensive and aggresive about opening the process up to scrutiny? Would it be o.k. if Kerry won by 95%? I agree the reign of Bill wasen't the best example of fair democracy in action, but neither was Reagans, and three wrongs don't make a right.

quote:"Note to self: Buy land in Roswell"

-Probably don't want to do that as the southwest is running out of water, as plans on tapping into the Great Lakes are on the to-do list. Another FACT.

[fintstone]

Originally posted by Don 944 LA
good info..

I as a " anyone but Bush " found it hard to vote for Kerry, due to limited understanding of the man. He was too busy defending the swiftboat attacks to actually let the American people know his platform.. Bush's political machine did a fine job of digging a hole for Kerry to dlimb out of.

Don

Makes one wonder why he didn't take the easy way out....and release his military records like Bush did.

[red-beard]

I work with one of the "Swift Boat" vets. They have copies of the records. They do know what his status was when discharged. And they know the change of status in January, 2001, just before William J. Clinton left office.

I think his next Senate campaign will be "complicated" by these "Swift Boat" veterans...again.