Death of the manual transmission?

[dd74]

I don't know if I've asked this before on OT, but I've been wondering for a while: will the manual transmission soon be a thing of the past?

Case in point: the new Volkswagen GTI - VW claims 0-60 for the manual as 7.2 seconds, while their automatic performs the same measurement in 6.9 seconds.

Another case: I read somewhere that overall sale of new cars with a manual transmission in the U.S. account for half of 1%.

One more case: my Mountaineer shifts faster than I can shift my 911, and I shift my 911 pretty darn fast for a 915 gearbox. So, it's my thinking that automatics have arrived and surpassed the manual transmission. I actually can see some car makers dropping the manual transmission entirely from their car lines. As well in racing, some cars - like F1 - haven't had a clutch for at least a decade. To me, it'd be a shame if the manual departed automobiles - it's part of the motoring experience.

Do any of you guys know, have heard or wonder about this?

[350HP930]

Like ABS and traction controll, techology like this will make me feel even more smug when I beat people who are equipped with such devices with my primative 930.

[pwd72s]

Look at drag racing today...do you see winners shifting rock cruncher Muncie M-22's? Nope. Do you see street rodders still loving them? Yep.

[ernestedward]

Isn't a big advantage of manual transmissions that, if driven properly, they wear much much slower than an automatic? I mean, in my experience most autos just die at some point and there's nothing you can do to resurrect them. The manual, otoh, just needs a clutch job.

[cegerer]

I went from the 6-speed Tiptronic slushbox in my Cayenne to the 6-speed sequential manual (SMG) in my M3. Big difference. The Tip was pretty cool with thumb shifters on the wheel and all. It shifted very quickly. SMG is a different animal. In S6 mode with stability control off, shifting is downright violent. If the car isn't pointing straight on the 1-2 shift, hang on! I think SMG-type gearboxes are the way of the near future for performance cars.

[EdT82SC]

I won't purchase a car with an automatic. I like shifting a manual. I suppose if I had to sit in stop and go traffic I might feel differently. I do find that limits my choices of cars to buy. I was condifering purchasing a Toyota Tacoma 4-door, but you can only get an automatic in the 4-foor. So now I am considering the Suburu Baja and the Nissan Frontier. Manuals are available on many European cars. Manual transmissions are still more then half of sales in Europe.

[oldE]

Computer controlled transmissions, with manual override are where we're going. Right now there seem to be several types:
1/ Traditional automatics with a torque converter,(example: Porsche's Tiptronic) with some degree of manual control either through steering wheel buttons or paddles or actuation of the shift lever. I think if it wasn't for the flop of the push-button automatics Chrysler played with back in the early 60s, we would have gotten rid of the stick by now. Nothing really new here, except for the range of modes allowed by computer mapping. The real news on this front is the proliferation of the number of ratios which allow the engineers to keep the car in the optimal performance RPM range, either for acceleration or fuel economy. Wear issues? Autoboxes have been putting up with the kind of abuse which would kill clutches for years. They're not quite bomb proof, but they are cost effective and, in some cases, on the addmittedly unrealistic EPA driving cycle, more efficient than some manuals.
2/ Semi automated gearboxes with computer controlled clutches: (examples, Ferrari, BMW) Hmm, no clutch pedal, but no torque converter, either. Ferrari has even dispensed with the "stick". Computer handles clutch take up, selects gears through actuators, and again, gives some variation of the speed of these actions based upon programs selected by the driver.
Volkswagen even has a neat dual clutch setup, with gears 1-3 & 5 running on one shaft and gears 2-4 & 6 on a second, concentric shaft. When you start off in first, the computer pre-selects 2nd, and waits for your signal. The 'gear change' really consists of one clutch dis-engaging, while the other takes up. Then the computer will pre-select either a higher or lower gear, depending upon the engine revs and what is happening with the throttle and the brakes.
Then you've got CVTs. I was amazed the other week, when I tried to list how many vehicles are available with these devices. So far, I think the only set-ups have used torque converters for start-off, but it seems if a clutch could be mated with a CVT, you could have the best of both worlds: efficiency and infinitly variable ratios.
Bottom line? Yeah, completely manual transmission set-ups in the age of kids who have grown up with push-button video games, are as anachronistic as my ole E. Some of us will remember the good old daye, but think back to when you last saw a car with the ignition advance on the steering wheel. I thought so.
Les

[Porsche virgin]

Last I heard, 8% of cars sold in the U.S. were manual. In Europe, however, that figure was like 70%-80% or something. Manuals may die here, but it will be a long time before they die completely.

[Bill Verburg]

You guys knocking the autos really need to try the tips, DSGs, SMG etal. Every version of tip has gotten better and better, the latest 6spd versions are the nuts, SMG and DSG are even better.

[stuartj]

Originally posted by Bill Verburg
You guys knocking the autos really need to try the tips, DSGs, SMG etal. Every version of tip has gotten better and better, the latest 6spd versions are the nuts, SMG and DSG are even better.

Big difference tho between a torque converter auto (which the Porsche Tip is just a good example) and the semi auto clutched boxes in Ferrrari, BMW, Alfa and hell, even the little Mr2.

I recently spent time in a (loaner) tip 996 and found it utterly uninvolving. After a few days in it, I got an AMG c32 auto, and I have that car anytime over a 996 auto, frankly.

Is Porsche bringing a sequential semi auto to the Carrera?

[Dantilla]

I still can't stand driving a tip. So far, anything with a torque converter still has that bit of lag between "Shifting" and actual engagement. It's easier to leave it in "D" and forget you're driving a Porsche.

The market will decide what happens. As long as people want to "mix paint" while they drive, there will be manual trannys. In a generation or two, who knows?

[stomachmonkey]

Don't know about the rest of Europe but in Germany you MUST take your road test on a standard shift tranny.

Makes perfect sense to me that you should display an ability to properly operate any vehicle at any time.

Wonder how many g-friends let the b-friend drive home drunk cause he's got a standard and she does not know how to drive it?

Scott

[350HP930]

It was the lack of power steering and the 50# clutch pedal that usually kept my significant other from driving the 930.

[stomachmonkey]

Originally posted by 350HP930
It was the lack of power steering and the 50# clutch pedal that usually kept my significant other from driving the 930.

But she knew how to and could if neccesary?

My daughter and son will learn how to drive on a standard.

Scott

[Scooter]

As some of you know, I recently sold my 84 Carrera for an e-shift Lexus IS300, then bought a '92 C2. I learned a lot in this process. Yes, the e-shift was convenient, shifted well and I liked it, to a point. The problem was, not only was it not a p-car, but the darn transmission had no "feel". Yes, I was able to shift into what gear I wanted, but it just didn't have the response of a standard transmission. For this reason, I believe the standard transmission is superior to an auto/pseudo-stick setup. I hope the standard trans doesn't go away, but then again, if it does, I should not be effected, because I am keeping my '92 forever.

[dd74]

Scooter - your signature is damned hilarious!

Anyway, I just received the new Car and Driver. In it is a test of the new Mercedes convertible SLK55 AMG. Guess what it has? A seven-speed automatic. Now, if it's any indication about the fate of the manual, this seven speed stands out. Who in the auto world has a seven-speed manual? No one. I think a six speeds is the most. I felt somewhat confirmed about my thoughts on the end of the manual when reading the article about the SLK55. It's definitely a performance car - 355 hp V8, 0-60 in 4.3 sec., 12-second 1/4 mile, etc.), but not offered with a manual, whereas before, a car of this caliber would have only a manual.

I understand that traditionally, M-B somewhat resists offering manuals in the U.S. - try finding a manual M-B at a dealership, and it's sort of like trying to find a leprechaun's pot of gold. But I nonetheless found it quite interesting that one of the sportiest cars Mercedes offers, has not just a lack of a manual transmission, but has an automatic with more gears than any automatic the company does offer in its other cars. Because of that, I'm more of the mind the technology of the automatic transmission has obviously surpassed the manuals, and in that, might cease being produced by the manufacturer - if at all, in the long run, a company like M-B would save money by producing one style of transmission.

[Porsche virgin]

I don't think the argument is about straight-line performance. A good automatic can shift faster than I can. Simple as that. That said, that same automatic might downshift in a curve when I just wanted to accelerate out with a little gusto, upsetting the balance of the car.

dd74, it seems to me that the technology of the automatic surpassed a manual decades ago. Other than syncros, how much has the manual tranny changed since it was first introduced?

I think the point is that some of us simply LIKE driving manuals better. Here in NYC, I sit in traffic plenty. Still, give me an manual any day. I even convinced my wife to give up her auto for a manual. (I love her!) As long as there is some demand for manuals, there will still be enough produced to keep us car guys happy.

[grudk]

As much as I will hate to see it, I think (new) manuals will be gone a lot sooner than some predict. 10-15 years max.

[Dantilla]

Yes, an automatic can shift fast, but as long as it has a torque converter it looses too much acceleration due to slippage.

[350HP930]

Actually a torque converter can aid acceleration by allowing the engine to operate near peak torque. The only downside is that the viscous forces in the TC are converting some of the valuable power to heat until it locks.