Wow. Cayenne sales in tank . . . already.
 

Was totally predictable to me (and in fact was predicted by me), since it is a vehicle that makes absolutely no sense, but Cayenne sales are already in the tank.

The first quarter 2005 sales figures are out. Cayenne is down a whopping 25% from the first quarter 2004.

That is a scary number. Normally, sales a new car gradually increase each year for the first 4-5 years, then taper off as the market anticipates it's replacement coming out.

For the Cayenne to take this big of a hit, this early, spells certain disaster for Porsche. There simply is NOTHING they can do to increase sales. They have already reached into the well to do the one thing they could do- make a cheaper model to tap the "poseur" market. They did that with the VW Golf engined 6 cylinder version. The "newness" and novelty of it has gone (Don't underestimate the force of that. Some people will buy anything to be the "first on the block." But the won't follow up by buying it again). There is, IMO, NOTHING Porsche can do to significantly increase sales. And, they will NEVER come close to the sales figures they projected and need to have for it.

This is a good example of corporate greed resulting in a very bad outcome. Normally, I would say that "corporate greed" is a concept that doesn't really exist - corporations should try to increase their value. But in this case, it was greed IMO.

You hear the absolutely silly argument "Porsche needed to make the Cayenne to stay independent." As I said here when the Cayenne first came out, if anything, the Cayenne will cause Porsche to LOSE it's independent status. Here's the irony. Porsche didn't need the Cayenne to save it from financial ruin. IT WAS THE MOST PROFITABLE CAR COMPANY ON THE PLANET! In fact, it's extreme profitability lead to the bizarre decision to make the Cayenne, IMO. Porsche had huge cash reserves. The proverbial "money burning the hole in your pocket." It paid for a lot of the Cayenne start up costs with cold, hard cash.

I think Porsche say what GM, etc. was doing in ripping off the public selling low budget pickup trucks with shells welded on them and some leather thrown in (i.e., the "luxury SUV") at HUGE profits. Although Porsche was doing spectacularly well, it just had to try to get in that SUV profit feeding-frenzy.

Problem is, however, Porsche underestimated the fickleness of the American consumer, and how long the SUV fad had been going. They were 10 years too late to the SUV profit party.

Add to that the Cayenne is a weak, unimaginative, anonymous, boring looking vehicle. Add to that the fact that they helped make their own competition, which is better than their vehicle (a V8 Toureg is better than the V6 Golf-engined Cayenne, for the same price), and disaster is guaranteed.

When it came out, Porsche execs said at the Porsche Parade that "The future of the company depends on the success of the Cayenne." I sure hope he was just trying to twist some arms to buy the thing. Because if that is true, the company is toast.

(BTW, sales of the Boxster and 997 are doing very well, as will be the sales of the Caymen).

I'm not really surprised.

There has been nothing but problems with them thus far. I think they are nice, but they definately didn't get all of the bugs worked out.

Much like the 928, the early cayennes are plagued with electrical problems. By the end of the Cayenne's life, it will truly be an outstanding car, again, like the 928

I do agree that Porsche was very late in getting into the SUV game. Especially with gas prices so high here in the US. I also think it was a HUGE mistake not to enter the cayenne in teh Paris - Dakkar rally, which would have lent more credibility to the platform.

In any case, I don't think it would spell ruin for Porsche, They Cayenne body is manufactured in czech republic by VW, the Porsche engines are made in stuttgart, the cayenne is assembled in Leipzig. If the bottom were to really fall out on the Cayenne, they can always sell their rights to VW, cut production, and retool Leipzig - perhaps for the Panamera or the Cayman.

They could also divert the production away from Uusikaupunki, Finland and bring it back to Germany. Which would be similar to what Porsche did with the 944 - the later ones were made in Stuttgart after they streamlined production and pulled out of Nekarsulm.

Also, with the advent of the Cayman, and reportedly a cayman convertable sometime around 2007, I think we will see the end of the Boxster soon after that.

AFJuvat

Don't worry, Porsche has a Plan:

ya blew it, blue!

by passing that along here, you have just "Contributed to the Porsche community." :eek:

Thanks for the slip-up.

btw, I've had the "going no where" stance on hybrids since 1993, when I worked on a SAE competition hybrid car. (simple physics--too much entropy)

But hey, maybe Porsche can be 10 years late to that fad too, as Socal has elequently pointed out.

Hybridizing a 5,000 lb vehicle is oxymoronic.

why's that?

. .. aren't all those hybrid inefficiencies scaleable? :cool:

Sure hey are...hey, how about a hybrid supertanker capable of 35 knots? :rolleyes:

Or how about producing a small coupe again (think 356) with a combination of efficient gas engine (my '65 C coupe gets 30 mpg on the highway) and electrical?

Well, I should have been more specific. The context was consumer vehicles, and 5,000 lb SUVs and pickups do not attract the crowd that buys ULEVs. It's oxymoronic because those folks see the notion of creating a huge, heavy vehicle to (usually) transport one person as wasteful.

The car companies recognize this, since they are only hybridizing thier compact SUVs and smallest cars at the moment.

Hydrogen and electric power scale up quite nicely in combination with IC engines, and will probably have lots of market success in larger commercial vehicles.Hybrid buses area slam dunk, for instance.

Maybe it's time for a reprise of the microcar, ie Trojan, Isetta, Messerscmidt...

OTOH, I think a BMW Isetta would just get caught in the treads of an Ford Excretion...

:D good one, pwd.

It is funny, how people forget that diesel-electrics have been around for ever.

Regenerative braking is the only twist that gives hybrids a second glance.


Techwee, good point. Though I thought that the whole idea of a hybrid was to have a clear conscious . . . that you're being more 'green' that the other guy . .. that you get to drive whatever type of planet polluting/massive heavy-metal battery lugging device you want ... as long as it means well. . . .and has that green cliche HYBRID logo on the back. ;)

Okay, lets say you are right about the "size" thing. What are the greeners going to do when they reallize that their hydrogen hybrid need to be huge (to handle the hydrogen w/o massive inefficient compression equipment) ?

Island--you just gave me an idea. Have vinyl "hybrid" decals printed up, and put one on the tailgate of my Jeep and one on my truck (right under the "Powerstroke" emblem).:)

Ah. A new category has been created: "Environmentalist Poseurs."

I think every Hummer H2 owner would want one of those decals!

LOL, Eric. - I want one! :D

yeah, that is what makes these people happy.

[greener]"True efficencies"!? who cares. "Hybrid" is our saviour. . . .the hope for our future. If you have a 'hybrid" label you have done your part to encourage those big evil car mfgs to create more earth-friendly vehicles. . .even if they're not even close, to being efficient, right now. (ssshhhh, dont tell anyone)

Peace-out.

oh hey, do any of you know where I can score some lumber? . . . I need to build a platform and shelter for a tree sit-in. (damn loggers. . .what do we need wood for anyway?)[/greener]

:rolleyes:

Yes and no.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.04/hybrid.html?pg=3&topic=hybrid&topic_set=

Oh, well, now you bring logic into it.

Not fair.

I've seen reports that no nuclear power plant has ever produced more energy than that which was expended constructing it. But, hey, there are lies, damn lies, statistics and public policy.

Ohhh welll....all is well in America.....

Seems to me if Porsche updated the 356 the way the Beetle and Mini were updated they would probably sell a Bazillion of them. Of course they would end up being water-cooled front engined cars that lacked the soul of a real 356, but I still think it would be a very successful product

They could even do a rear-engined version with a Subie 4 in it.

I'd buy one...

Re: Wow. Cayenne sales in tank . . . already.
 

I am a avowed SUV hater and though the Cayenne was a bad move idealistically for Porsche however...
How many people buy SUV's for the bling factor (Escalade, Hummer, etc.) and how many people buy Porsche's as poseurs?
so you put the two together and bingo... or not.

Personaly I think they should have pursued the 928 reissue although it may have competed with the 911 turbo as a supercar.

I also think the four door Porsche sedan is a bad idea but what do I know.

Interesting how manyof us feel Porsche shoud take a step back to a simpler less expensive sports car rather than push the envelope in the opposite direction.

Island,

I have a buddy on a Jeep site to which I belong working on the layout. I am then taking it to a lcoal printer. The Jeep guys all got a kick out of it too.:D

Lol Eric what Jeep site is it? I want to go check it out.


I think if they had raced the Cayanne and stuck it with a name like Toureg, (let VW have the Cayanne) they could have really had something else.

I think it's funny that you guys are talking as if the Cayenne is "over" when the math that started this thread was flawed.

Cayenne sales for May are not down. They are up. 115 vs 103 for May 2004.

Year-to-date, sales are down 10% vs last year. But most premium SUV sales are down vs last year.

My sales numbers are not flawed.

1st Quarter 2004 sales were approx. 4000 units

1st Q 2005 was approx 3000 units.

Around a 25% decrease.

Your numbers look flawed, though. If Porsche only sold 115 Cayennes in the month of May, they are in REAL trouble.

Ack. Those were numbers from Canada I was quoting. Got fooled by the PCNA heading.

Numbers through May are now available, and Porsche says Cayenne sales will be equal to last year.

Best Month in History for Porsche in North America

ATLANTA, June 1 -- Porsche Cars North America, Inc. (PCNA), importer and distributor of Porsche sports cars and Cayenne SUVs in the United States and Canada, today announced May retail sales in the United States totaled 3,291 cars, an increase of 25 percent compared to May of last year. In addition to being the best May result in the U.S., it was the best month in history for Porsche in North America. Combined sales for Canada and the U.S. totaled 3,567 in May, surpassing the previous record of 3,547 set in December 1986.

"We couldn't have asked for a better result in May," said Peter Schwarzenbauer, PCNA President and CEO. "With our fiscal year ending in July, we are looking forward to setting yet another sales record, thanks to our sports cars, which are hot, and the Cayenne, which will finish the fiscal year at the same level as last year."

In addition, dealers sold 544 Porsche Approved Certified Pre-Owned vehicles, compared to 452 for the same period last year.

(the table doesn't display correctly here)

Go to: http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2005/06/01/110719.html

"Numbers through May are now available, and Porsche says Cayenne sales will be equal to last year."

Isn't that what the Audi TT is ? If I understand correctly, the TT was originally meant to be the "New Beetle" equivalent of the Karmann Ghia, but VW passed it to Audi to sell instead.

That having been said, an updated 356 would be pretty cool. I doubt if Porsche could sell it cheap enough to be successful, unfortunately.

Gene DiGennaro
Baltimore, Md.

Brian, you can think what you want. And I'm not saying you aren't justified just on the raw numbers.

But spokespeople for public companies have to be very careful about sales projections. The reason I'm not willing to write off the Cayenne is that there are quite a few months between now and the end of the year. May sales saw Cayenne numbers improve substantially over Q1.

PCNA's Boxster incentive program proved that the Porsche marketplace is very price elastic. Incentives -- especially lease incentives -- can make a huge difference in a model's acceptance. And Porsche has huge margins to play with in the Cayenne.

I'm no fan of the Cayenne, but there seems to be a pretty strong market for it in some parts of the country -- like SoCal.

So the best option would be a hybrid 356 look-alike with performance and equipment matching the Lotus Elise and selling around $40K. Can they do that if they dont have to develop the technology ?

Hawktel,

The website is IFSJA(International Full-Size Jeep Association)

It is for all Full-Sized Cherokees, Wagoneers, Grand Wagoneers, and J-Trucks.

I'm a major investor in an electric/hybrid vehicle company. I've been knee-deep in this stuff for 6+ years. The energy gained by regenerative braking on a lightweight vehicle is more beneficial to the marketing aspect of the vehicle than to the battery charging.

As to size, it's rumored there will be hydrogen-powered notebook supplies on the market in 18 months or so. The previous inability to make these things small has been supposedly overcome.

Gentleman's bet on whether the TSA allows them as carry-on?

I'm not taking that bet. TSA confiscated a Microsoft Zune prototype last week. Anything they don't see every day will be confiscated.

If used Cayenne pricing drops low enough, I'll gladly trade my Honda Pilot for one.

Anyone with a Turbo S out there that wants to swap, let me know :)

I like the Cayenne, but I'm not in the funding bracket to purchase one. A Turbo would be a very fun vehichle. :)

Seeing how Porsche have now bought another few percent of the VAG group and hold a controlling share majority, it will be interesting to see what happens to the Cayenne.

One more note - again, I don't have the money for a Cayenne at the moment, but when it comes to a "green" "freindly" car, the current crop of hybrids is not what comes to my mind, they are luxery cars, not economy cars. Build a smaller lighter car, and you will be ahead of the ballgame.

I want a Lotus Elise, its one of the few brand new cars that holds what I want from a car - a car, not a mobile living room/office.

The Cayenne, is loaded with gadgets I'm never realy going to need, but it is IMO a fairly versitile vehichle, especialy if you go with the adjustible suspension options. I just don't have the confidence that they will not be maintenance intensive twenty years down the road. - I want to own a car longterm, I'm not into always moving to the newest model. (Hey, I drive a '86!)

Well, it's six years latter. I now have a Cayenne, But did I miss the hydrogen-powered notebook revolution? oh, yeah... back on the main topic....

Toyota drops plan for widespread sales of electric car. - Reuters

how 'bout that..

funny stuff!!

you crack me up island.

And, in other news, 6 years later I still think the Cayenne is ugly and NARP. And Porsche did so well with it that they over-leveraged themselves into getting bought-out by VW. :D