Analysist See Bleak Road Ahead

[oldsam]

I decided this is important enough to be posted as a new topic.

Analysist See Bleak Road Ahead

By CHARLES J. HANLEY AP Special Correspondent
The Associated Press

Nov 30, 2005 — Two senior Army analysts who in 2003 accurately foretold the turmoil that would be unleashed by the U.S. invasion of Iraq offer a bleak assessment in a new study of what now lies ahead in that bloodied land.

They advise, however, against setting a timetable for U.S. troop withdrawal unless Washington finds the situation "irredeemable."

A timetable "is an excuse for allowing the system to collapse," the Army War College's W. Andrew Terrill and Conrad C. Crane write.

Political pressure is building in Washington for a concrete plan to extricate U.S. forces from Iraq. On Tuesday, on the eve of an important address on Iraq at the U.S. Naval Academy, President Bush told reporters he wants the troops home, "but I don't want them to come home without having achieved victory."

In a February 2003 report, a month before the U.S. invasion, Crane and Terrill had warned that the United States might "win the war but lose the peace" if it attacked Iraq. They suggested armed resistance to an occupation would grow, a harsh American response would further alienate Iraqis, and establishing political stability would prove difficult all predictions that were borne out.

They warned in particular against disbanding the pre-invasion Iraqi army, a step that was nonetheless taken and is now viewed as a blunder that fed the anti-U.S. insurgency.

In their new 60-page report, veteran Middle East scholar Terrill and Crane, director of the Army Military History Institute, say a U.S. troop presence in Iraq probably cannot be sustained more than three years further. Meantime, they write:

"It appears increasingly unlikely that U.S., Iraqi and coalition forces will crush the insurgency prior to the beginning of a phased U.S. and coalition withdrawal."

"It is no longer clear that the United States will be able to create (Iraqi) military and police forces that can secure the entire country no matter how long U.S. forces remain."

And "the United States may also have to scale back its expectations for Iraq's political future," by accepting a relatively stable but undemocratic state as preferable to a civil war among Iraq's ethnic and religious factions.

[Nathans_Dad]

toady??

[RallyJon]

Analysts predict that they'll be right. Stop the presses!

So they advise against withdrawing troops, yet:

"It appears increasingly unlikely that U.S., Iraqi and coalition forces will crush the insurgency prior to the beginning of a phased U.S. and coalition withdrawal."

"It is no longer clear that the United States will be able to create (Iraqi) military and police forces that can secure the entire country no matter how long U.S. forces remain."

Not sure I'm following what their plan is. Do they want us to stay for several more years, fail to train enough Iraqi military, then leave the country in a dictatorship?

Sounds like a great plan fellas...

[techweenie]

If Bush & Co. had a plan, every 2-bit armchair general wouldn't have to be coming up with his own.

[juanbenae]

Originally posted by techweenie
If Bush & Co. had a plan, every 2-bit armchair general wouldn't have to be coming up with his own.

amen.

[RallyJon]

Originally posted by techweenie
If Bush & Co. had a plan, every 2-bit armchair general wouldn't have to be coming up with his own.

Are they? Again, where's the actual PLAN? All I see from the 2-bit armchair generals are negatives.

[wludavid]

Originally posted by RallyJon
All I see from the 2-bit armchair generals are negatives.

Yes. Actually, most of the 4-bit real generals were saying the same thing 3 years ago.

[wludavid]

Originally posted by RallyJon

Not sure I'm following what their plan is. Do they want us to stay for several more years, fail to train enough Iraqi military, then leave the country in a dictatorship?

I think I'm as befuddled by this as RallyJon. We shouldn't leave unless it's redeemable, but then go on to say that it's increasingly likely that it's not redeemable. So are they promoting a timetable to start thinking about a timetable for withdrawal?

[RallyJon]

Right. We have to look at this given the constraints of the current situation as a starting point. The left's "I told ya so"s are less than worthless, as are any bold proclamations (from right or left) that "we'll stay there until the job is DONE!"

As I mentioned in the other thread, I suspect that the true list of outcomes that the Bush administration is considering is not for public release. There's a big difference between what the mainstream media would consider acceptable and what might be best for the long term.

[oldsam]

Originally posted by RallyJon
Not sure I'm following what their plan is. Do they want us to stay for several more years, fail to train enough Iraqi military, then leave the country in a dictatorship?

Sounds like a great plan fellas...

I guess we will have to wait for the release of the 60 page report before jumping to conclusions.

[techweenie]

Originally posted by oldsam
I guess we will have to wait for the release of the 60 page report before jumping to conclusions.

Where's the fun in that?

:-)

[RallyJon]

Be sure to post it in it's entirety as soon as you get it.

[oldsam]

I guess a flippant answer as normally offered by many on this BBS could have been:

They didn't listen to us before, why should we bother now?

I thought their bio's were pretty interesting.


CONRAD C. CRANE is currently the Director of the U. S. Army Military History Institute at Carlisle Barracks, PA. He joined the Strategic Studies Institute in September 2000 after 26 years of military service that concluded with 9 years as Professor of History at the U.S. Military Academy. He has written or edited books on the Civil War, World War I, World War II, and Korea, and published articles on military issues in such journals as The Journal of Strategic Studies, The Journal of Military History, The Historian, and Aerospace Historian, as well as in a number of collections and reference books. Dr. Crane holds a B.S. from the U.S. Military Academy and an M.A. and Ph.D. from Stanford University. He is also a graduate of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College and the U.S. Army War College.


Dr. W. Andrew Terrill joined the Strategic Studies Institute in October 2001, and is SSI s Middle East specialist. Prior to his appointment, he served as a Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). In 1998-99, Dr. Terrill also served as a Visiting Professor at the U.S. Air War College on assignment from LLNL. He is a former faculty member at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, and has taught adjunct at a variety of other colleges and universities. He is a retired U.S. Army Reserve lieutenant colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East). Dr. Terrill has published in numerous academic journals on topics including nuclear proliferation, the Iran-Iraq War, Operation DESERT STORM, Middle Eastern chemical weapons, and ballistic missile proliferation, terrorism, and commando operations. Since 1994, at U.S. State Department invitation, Dr. Terrill has participated in the Middle Eastern Arms Control and Regional Security (ACRS) Track 2 talks, which are part of the Middle East Peace Process. He holds a B.A. from California State Polytechnic University and an M.A. from the University of California, Riverside, both in Political Science. Dr Terrill also holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from Claremont Graduate University, Claremont, California.

[legion]

My military history teacher in high school said it best:

"There are two ways to defeat an eastern enemy: Kill every man, woman, and child or make them think that you will kill every man,
woman, and child."

[RallyJon]

They didn't listen to us before, why should we bother now?

Because it's for your country? Because soldiers' lives are at stake? As I said before, anyone who dares say, "I told ay so" in the middle of a crisis should be shot. No criticism accepted without a proposal or plan of your own.

I certainly hope that in 60 pages, their impressive assortment of degrees will have enabled them to craft an innovative solution based on where we are today, not how it might have been if only we'd listened to their wisdom before.

[ubiquity0]

What does an analytical therapist write on their business card?
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Analrapist

[Wrecked944]

Wookies

[CamB]

Originally posted by Nathans_Dad
toady??

Yep. I reckon.

Fint - I hope you're reading - I apologise for what I said the other day. It appears I was in a bad mood and what I said was unjustified. It has totally swung the other way... Sorry, and I'll try be more civil.

[fintstone]

Originally posted by CamB
Yep. I reckon.

Fint - I hope you're reading - I apologise for what I said the other day. It appears I was in a bad mood and what I said was unjustified. It has totally swung the other way... Sorry, and I'll try be more civil.

Fair enough. I accept.

[Joeaksa]

Originally posted by techweenie
If Bush & Co. had a plan, every 2-bit armchair general wouldn't have to be coming up with his own.

Novel idea! Now pls tell us oh great all knowing one, when are the Democrats going to get a plan and platform and get back in power so that they get to tell the Generals to do?

We all know that you guys are dying to do it but are so confused that years after losing for the second time in a major election the Democratic party is still simply flowing downstream, instead of even trying to make some headway in the country. Course with HOWARD DEAN at the helm that will make things right! Correct?

You know, like the Democrats did in Vietnam when they controlled the military down to the level of when every solder could wipe their rear? There are even photos of Johnson and his cronies planning air strikes in the WH, when they had not the slightest idea of what they were doing.

The retired Generals have had a plan or idea for years, its just in the last 10-15 years that the networks started hiring them as "consultants" and they came to light. Very few of them just "fade away" and most are picked up on the board of directors of various military defence companies, where they sponge off the gravy train in both Democratic and Republican admins.

Better dig deeper in that bag of tricks Techie, its getting a bit thin these days!

JoeA