Peak Oil:

[speeder]

Here's a real cheery subject.

Still, I can't think of anything more relevant or important to discuss right now. I think that the current administration + Clinton will go down in history as being asleep at the wheel when the schit really hit the fan, which is basically right now. This is obviously very closely related to terrorism and our foreign policy(s), but it sort of trumps them all, doesn't it?

I mean, people blowing stuff up is definitely disruptive to economies and our way of life, but nothing like this will be.

Please discuss; I believe that this transcends petty political differences.

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

[speeder]

Oh yeah, google "peak oil" for this and other good links.

[lendaddy]

Thanks Denis, that was a good laugh.

By any chance did you just watch Syriana?

[nostatic]

one word: China

the jig is up...

[speeder]

That's it? I thought that this was pretty factual stuff, at least the oil supply/production part.

[speeder]

Originally posted by lendaddy
Thanks Denis, that was a good laugh.

By any chance did you just watch Syriana?

No, haven't seen it yet. Is it any good?

[Joeaksa]

Its going to be a very big change and will probably happen in the next 30-50 years. All the toys we know and love will probably go away and our lives will be changed totally.

Look at the Chinese and Indian economy and population, which are both growing at fantastic rates. It cannot be maintained and even here in the states the minorities are the only ones who have slowed down having kids.

My guess is that another World War will be fought over oil and "liebensraum" or living room as Hitler called it as we are running out of both of it. Oh yea, all of this is if the Muslims do not take over the earth first. Not kidding, its a very real possibility unless we Christians do not wake up and fast.

joeA

[IROC]

I've read, from various credible sources, the same type of story. I'm actually afraid that we will see the effects of this "peak oil" problem much sooner than 30-50 years.

I really wish fusion technology was further along. We are going to *have* to develop some source of energy beyond what we have now. I used to work in the nuclear industry and was a strong proponent of that, but even nuclear (for all of its benefits) is a very finite source of power.

I hope you're wrong about the Muslims taking over the Earth. That's the last thing we need. I wish all of these religions would learn to play well in the sandbox together.

Mike

[lendaddy]

That website says the blackouts start in 2012.

[island_dude]

The era of cheap oil is long gone. I don't have the data to come up with a timeline, but it is clear where the trend is going. The supply is finite, and there are increasing demands coming from the emerging world that will add pressure to the supply situation. Nothing short of a number of nuclear bombs will halt this trend.

It seems that this fact is not obvious to a lot of people. We should have woken up back in the 70s when the first oil shocks hit. That was the wake up call. We didn't sustain the effort looking for alternative sources. People who were promoting the ideas of wind, Solar, geothermal and hydrogen were laughed at by the traditional energy sector and found far more investment options in Japan than in the US. Fision may make a come back, but there are obvious problems with it (even outside of the waste disposal issue), and fusion has not yet been made practical.

The path forward should be clear. We need to reduce demand for oil in the short term and invest like hell in the most promising energy alternatives. This needs to be elevated to the level of our war on terror.

This recent experience of >$3/gallon gas in the US is the start, not the end. While finding new oil sources will stave off the pain for a while, it is just a band aid on a sucking chest wound.

[fuelie600]

Originally posted by lendaddy
That website says the blackouts start in 2012.

Damn, where did I put that flash light???


The real problem is: Nobody knows for sure when this will happen. Any claims to the contrary are pure BS. Without new major discoveries, peak oil is real, but nobody (except OPEC) knows when it will happen or if it already has. The Saudi's and OPEC have not released real production figures or real proven reserve data for 20+ years.

We will have to shift from a petro economy to some new source over the coming decades, but there is no reason it can't be done in a graceful manner. In a well behaved market, (big caveat), as supply is outstripped by demand, the cost of energy should increase in response. Should It double or triple in a few months? No. This year's increases were driven completely by speculators and hedge funds trading on the NYMEX. The price of oil and its distillates should be a small percentage higher now than they were last year. Remember, China didn't just pop into existence. Their energy demand is increasing 5-7% per year and their actual consumption is much lower than ours. 6.63M barrels per day vs. 20M barrels per day US (2004 data). Winter weather in the US has a greater effect on worldwide consumption than China in the short term.

China and India will certainly make the problem of peak oil worse, but it should still happen in a graceful way. The world market will provide forces needed to move us to new technology.

I'm finishing the book "Twilight in the Desert" right now. It's a boring read, but provides insight into the world's oil supply.

[RallyJon]

When I read articles like that, my response is that the U.S. has not even begun to treat the oil supply as critical.

We play games with Saudis and let the big corporations basically run the show. How many times in the past 20 years has the U.S. government proactively seized control of an oil supply? How many times do you think that will happen in the next 20 years, if that article is correct?

On topics like this, the doomsayers are quick to point out how terrible things will be, but they always assume that the world as we know it today will plod along with minimal changes (except the ones they foretell, of course). Turn that on it's head, figure the U.S. and China splits the oil producing capacity of the world between them, and the timeline is very different.

[singpilot]

What people seem to be oblivious to is attempts at oil takeovers. Like The Chinese Governments' recent attempt to purchase Unocal. Seemed innocoulous enough until you realized that the company CNOOC was really a Chinese state run 'private' company, and that the only real reserves Unocal had were in Indonesia and the 'stans (Uzbeckistan, Afghanistan, and so on). You know, some of the countries around the Chinese sphere of influence.

That would have been, as is said...'a bad thing'. Unless you were Chinese and just bought your first car.

[Rick Lee]

Originally posted by singpilot
What people seem to be oblivious to is attempts at oil takeovers. Like The Chinese Governments' recent attempt to purchase Unocal. Seemed innocoulous enough until you realized that the company CNOOC was really a Chinese state run 'private' company, and that the only real reserves Unocal had were in Indonesia and the 'stans (Uzbeckistan, Afghanistan, and so on). You know, some of the countries around the Chinese sphere of influence.

That would have been, as is said...'a bad thing'. Unless you were Chinese and just bought your first car.

I'm as weary of Chinese motives as the next red-blooded American, but I don't believe their buying up an oil company would necessarily be a bad thing. They will do what it takes to secure their energy sources. And if buying up a company is what it takes, then it seems to me that would be that much more oil they're not buying on the open market and thereby not squeezing supply. Of course, Unocal would be serving Chinese needs first. But if not, then the Chicoms will be contributing to general demand in other markets.

I also think it's a bit hypocritical for us to be preaching democracy and human rights to the Chicoms, while acting like they don't have as much right to aspire to a better life as we do. Actually, the only thing I think gives us any more right to oil than they have is the fact that our navy and not theirs is what keeps the Red Sea, Straits of Hormuz and Persian Gulf safe for shipping oil.

Having spent some time in China, I don't really see how their roads can handle any more cars anyway. But if they do ever become a liberal democracy with a big middle class, it will put a squeeze on oil supplies like we've never seen. Another classic case of be careful what you wish for.

[dhoward]

Originally posted by lendaddy
That website says the blackouts start in 2012.

December 21, 2012.
The end of the Mayan Calendar....

[David]

I was pretty skeptical about us running out oil since I'm in the energy business both at work and privately. Then I started reading various credible sources. It appears that Saudi will deplete their current known reserves in about 70 years at their current production rate, but they want to increase production which could shorten this time dramatically. There are many other untapped resources, but the Middle East Oil has been very easy to get. Well, the easy oil is rapidly diminishing.

I expect gasoline to be over $20/gal in 20 years. I don't expect us to run out in our grandchildren's lifetimes, but I do expect it to become very expensive.

There will be other energy sources. The US's known reserves of coal would last 500 years at current consumption rates.

Remember, the stone age didn't end because they ran out of stones. I doubt the oil age will end because we ran out of oil.

[gaijindabe]

We could easily use 50% energy as we do with very little dislocation. Super cheap oil has only made us waste it. Stop with the silly McMansions, ditch the SUVs and turn the damn AC off and we are 3/4 the way there..

[Rick Lee]

Gaijindabe, that's a self-defeating move. If we used less, that would make oil even cheaper! There is no political will to do what needs to be done to preserve oil supply. Most European countries pay twice what we pay for gas and have confiscatory income and VAT taxes with lower incomes to boot. They still pay it! We paid over $3 a gallon a few mos. ago, which is still pretty cheap and people still paid it and drove to work. The only way consumption here will get under control is if the gubmint imposes a shifting tax with a price floor, so that even as oil prices drop, we still pay a lot for gas and continue to consume less. This is like saying if the queen had balls, she'd be king. It ain't ever gonna happen.

[RallyJon]

That whole $3 a gallon thing? The oil companies caused the hurricanes to facilitate some pricing research so they could fill in the "fun" part of the demand curve.

[Rick Lee]

No Rally, Bush and Cheney planned the hurricanes with their energy task force way back in 2001, but told Mother Nature to hold off until they got re-elected.