Hey Techweenie - How About that Dow!
 

That's always been your barometer of economic performance.

A couple hundred of points from hitting an all time record high right now.

Have you declared the (supposed) economic "recession" of the past few years offically over now?

Gettin' ready to stop peddling Porsches??

:)

It's Bush's fault!...er, um, uh...DO'H!!!!!!!!!!

The wrong economy is booming. The middle class economy is in a depression still:D

and then there's inflation...

I am still trying to figure out how the left are going to spin out of their "but the jobs are low quality jobs" spin (if you recall, that was their sorry explanation for low unemployment), when they are so busy bussing in illegals...Don't they know that illegals drive down wages and drive up unemployment?

shhh! no no no...the economy is perfect. It's booming for EVERYONE!!! We're all better off than we were x years ago...

Hey, Brian!

The Dow is looking healthier in the last year, no doubt. It's interesting to look at where it is in context of the past 5 years.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1146850170.jpg

It's been a long, slow climb back. Not exactly propsperous times, but looking better. Proves that even the stupidest economic policy can't hold back this country indefinitely.

SHUSH!! The economy is tanking, silly. Pay no attention to that stock market behind the curtain...

Plus it will all come crashing down when the illegals stage their "no stock buying day" next week.

[/Republican]

Come on libs, this is easy. Any economy will prosper temporarily when government spending increases as much as it has under W's administration. The bad news is we (or our kids) will have to pay it back...

[Republican]

Looking at your chart, I see that we WEREN'T in a recession for the past 3.5 years, like you always said we were.

I also see that we are near a record high, which is the point that even you said you would declare the "recession" over!

:)

In a longer-term perspective, look at the growth vectors for the Dow indicated by the dashed green line. Only a few more years at only 200% of the growth we've seen in the past 6 months, and we'll have caught up with that vector.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1146850969.jpg

Anyone wanna guess who was President during the last consolidation period in the market on Tech's chart (1977-1982)??

Kewpie doll to the winner!!

Wow Tech, why not use the starting point of '81 and make that vector even steeper! Or I could choose '73 and make everything magically good all of a sudden:)

I didn't make the chart or the vector. Len.

Sometimes the facts are just inconvenient.

The three top headlines on yahoo finance this morning were:
1. Worst addition of jobs since October
2. US consumer confidence hits a new low
3. Crude is over $72 a barrell

I am honestly just wondering why people love the market so much right now. To me it feels like the bull has been running and running and running, his legs are getting tired. The American consumer has consumed their way out of a reccession so far, but the sources for cheap easy money are getting leaner. BTW the market is up on bad news today because traders think that the fed is going to stop raisning rates. There are so many reasons to be nervous about the market right now, and the only good thing about the market is that corporate earnings are improving.

Oh incase you wanted my two cents, politicians should not get blamed for good or bad markets, it is giving them way too much credit for all the nothingness that they accomplish.

I don't dispute the chart, facts are facts. But why choose an early peak within a valley rather than the early peak to set the upper limit?

Do you know who published that chart with overlay? Wanna bet $20 it's a left wing org?.

Oh, I think we'll have to start paying before it gets to our kids...but I agree with you. For the life of me I don't understand why a single data point (ie the dow) is the metric for the state of the economy...

I'll take that bet.

You can make that $20 check out to the ACLU.

http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/dow-long.html

The NAMBLA or the Hamas fund?

Don't put words in my mouth. I said the recession wasn't *really* over. And my criterion for that comment was the very dashed line you see on that chart.

The US economy took a huge step back from its growth rate and has not reattained that growth rate until the last 6 months.

...and after a few hours (or perhaps a day) the headlines will read the opposite. The news outlets sensationalize each indicator as if they are the sole bellwether for the health of our economy. I liken Yahoo headlines to watching a tennis match.

"Dow Jones surges close to all-time high"
"Jobs Data Send Dow to New 6-Year High"

I guess you didn't read the first sentence of the post you responded to. I suggest you go back and do so and you won't have to keep trying to invent things.

Let's not worry ourselves about the last recession. Worry about the upcoming recession.

I'm still trying to figure this Australian website out, but it appears you may win this round evil one.

Do you take personal checks?:D

Hey, :) I added in some of the missing "Long term projections"


http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1146857350.jpg


"just the facts" :rolleyes: sheesh tech.

Of course. You can PM me for a mailing address.

My portfolio is worth almost exactly what it was 2 years ago, unfortunately. But that's not where I've been putting my money. It's gone into 'colectibles' and has done quite well, thanks for your concern.

My net worth took a $3.75 million hit from '00 to '03, so I don't have a ton to worry about at the moment. But I've been building several companies in the meantime, so don't imagine I've been 'sitting on the sidelines.'

Just a old timer's rule of thumb:

Depressions are national.

Recessions are local.

That is, the "economy" may be great for specific income brackets, industries, or for specific geographic areas.

So as far as the current economic situaiton, it is a point of view situation.

As to why the runup? Partly due to real estate no longer being quite as attractive. But just watch. The market indices will do what they always do...

Change.

This may amaze you, but some people can do several things at a time!

;-)

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job.

This may be a rough week for the Dow...

mid yr election often coincides with a 10-40% stock mkt drop directly followed by a steep over previous high increase for about 1-2yrs. It's happened about 8 times since WW2.

based on above possibilities it's not exactly the time to sell, but it's not exactly the time to toss in new $ either.

Definitely not the time to throw $$$ in.

11,2XX

LOL.

Still laughing over the way you paid your debt on this, Len.

But the important thing is that you are a man of your word.

He looks good don't ya think? Seriously, that was fast all the way to Cali. Mail guy must be a liberal friend of yours:)

details! :)

Nothing too strange, I taped the cash to the back of a 8" X 10" portrait of Bush. I considered warning him of this incase he destroyed it with fire or something, but I figured that in itself would be worth another $20:D

good on ya'

(sound of crickets...)

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1149610784.jpg

All I'm saying here is that the signals are mixed at best.

Bush supporters were all excited about 4.6% unemployment until that pesky press mentioned that it was the lowest rate since July '01 -- you know, the Clinton Recession.

And all the unemployment stats are pretty much inventions, anyway in that they under-count the self employed, fail to take in a booming underground economy and have no mechanism for dealing with skilled workers forced to take unskilled jobs...

I hated Economics in college because there were never enough axes to account for all of the influences.

My investing life got much easier when I stopped trying to time the market and worrying about daily changes. Multiple authors have asserted that market timing is nearly impossible and doesn't actually increase your returns all that much either, especially if you happen to miss a few of the big gain days by being out.

Stick yer money in the market and fergetaboutit.