What's your outlook for the future?

[Wrecked944]

Originally posted by LubeMaster77
The average life expectancy in 50 years will be in the mid 90’s. The major reason for death will be various forms of dementia that will not have a known origin - even when a patients compete genetic profile can be understood in 5 minutes at a drive up pharmacy the cause will still be a mystery . Many forms of cancer will be eliminated. The average age of retirement from the primary career will be 70 and for the next 20 years more of the elderly will engage in volunteer work as well as education. The AARP will become a major political party blending a mix of centrism and libertarianism.

Okay, since Mike took the question seriously and offered a real answer, I suppose I'll set aside my silly sci fi jokes and be serious as well.

I've been following the "longevity" subculture for a few years and I am finding it increasingly difficult to dismiss them despite my inherent (and perhaps biological) pessimism. Mike's assertion that avg life expectancy will be in the 90's in 50 years is actually IMHO very conservative - it assumes a linear increase in life expectancy which is reasonable, but not IMO likely. Instead, most technologies improve at exponential rates and I would expect medical science to do the same. So I believe most of us on this BBS will live to see the "tipping point" when average life expectancy increases by more than 1 year every year. And hey, you can do the math, right?

MSNBC recently did a week long series of articles exploring this topic and the consequences to society. Of course, some of the effects of longevity are already being felt. For instance, the old paradigm of saving up a pile of cash and then living on it in retirement is no longer valid. People are now outliving their retirement accounts. So we need to completely rethink our assumptions about retirement. A pile of cash is no longer sufficient. Instead, a collection of incoming producing assets is needed.

That is just one effect of longevity which we are already struggling with. I expect their will be a lot of other jarring changes to society.

[Eric 951]

Originally posted by fastpat
Yep, always better as a bad example. You're a pathetic whiner too, bet you sound just like Joe Lieberman in person.

paste...
You are the one always crying about:
the federal government
independence for south carolina
whatever lew rockwell blogs about in a given day
immigration
foreign policy
losing the civil war(it was over a hundred years ago--GET OVER IT)

you sissy.

[M.D. Holloway]

Originally posted by JanusCole
...Mike's assertion that avg life expectancy will be in the 90's in 50 years is actually IMHO very conservative - it assumes a linear increase in life expectancy which is reasonable, but not IMO likely. Instead, most technologies improve at exponential rates and I would expect medical science to do the same. ...

True to some extent but I still think that the body can just get so old before things just don't work reguardless of the drug or anything else. Some folks have the genetics to look and feel betrer than others at an older age. I am sure that in 50 years we will be able to id the mechanism and marker that triggers this. I do not think that people will live for hundreds of years. In 50 years from now you may see folks that are easily in their 120's but they will be as special as people that are in thier 100's now. Any exponential growth curve is a little misleading. Given any set of data points and I could make a chart that looks good, bad or indifferent. At the end of the day just a simple chart that shows how old did people live vs how long they are living now and extrapolate into the future leaves out many variables thathave to considered.

[nostatic]

you're assuming we'll get around telomerase. We have a finite span for a reason...organic materials don't last forever. Unless you're talking cyborg/hybrid I don't see much extension past 100. At least not with what people would consider a "quality" life.

[M.D. Holloway]

thats what I'm saying! Now in maybe in 100 years when nanobots are in full production they will do cell repairs maybe then you will see folks in the 150 range but thats a ways off.

[svandamme]

this drive to live longer is unnatural and unsustainable
at least not if we keep multiplying at the same rate

what comes in , has to go out to make room for the next generations
the planet is allready overpopulated and raped by mankind , so if anything, we should downsize... by about 2 billion...

[Wrecked944]

Originally posted by nostatic
you're assuming we'll get around telomerase.

Yes, I am!



Betting against technological advancement is IMO a losing game. For every obstacle you can imagine, I have no doubt some young and ambitious PhD candidate is brainstorming a potential solution right now. Even though I may be biologically disposed towards pessimist, I find it hard to look at the last 100 or so years of technological improvement and apply the word "can't" to the future.

[cashflyer]

Originally posted by trekkor
A lot of posts and a lot of views. Some pics...

But still no positive view of the future... ( other than the one I showed from the bible )

I havn't posted because I'm not sure what you're looking for.

You want to know what my personal plans are for the next 30 years? You want to know where I think humanity is headed? You want to know what I think will become of world governments?

Or, as it sounds, do you just want somebody to agree to your rehash of the bible?

[svandamme]

Cashflyer , just noticed your sig

it sounds like Mike lubed you up then ??was he gentle??

[JeremyD]

I see more more low skilled jobs farmed oversees and I see retirees being lured back into the job world, especially those with tech and management skills because of high demand and high pay - oh and because they ran out of retirement.

[trekkor]

I havn't posted because I'm not sure what you're looking for.

I'm hoping people will stop fooling themselves.

show me one succesful government at anytime in human history and I'll go away.


The clock is ticking...


KT

[svandamme]

Originally posted by trekkor
I'm hoping people will stop fooling themselves.

show me one succesful government at anytime in human history and I'll go away.


The clock is ticking...


KT

how about the Swiss one then

Direct democracy, Federal republic
independant since 1291


dodged the world wars
high standard of living for quite some time now


cia factbook says
Population below poverty line:
NA%

in most parameters, Switserland , is better then the average
in my book, it's a successfull country, with a gouvernement that managed to unite the diverse parts of the country...

buh bye

[Moneyguy1]

The Swiss have done well by being the banker and refuge for all combatants in the European wars.

I wonder....SHould we try that and see if it works for us?

[svandamme]

Originally posted by Moneyguy1
The Swiss have done well by being the banker and refuge for all combatants in the European wars.

I wonder....SHould we try that and see if it works for us?

you can't , you need money IN the bank before you can be a banker, Bush blew the deficit to new levels up with his current policy...

either way , the Swiss have done well for themselves... and they did most of their stuff with the blessing of the Vatican ( the corrupt Vatican back in the days i might add )...

[trekkor]

People still die in CH.



KT

[svandamme]

Originally posted by trekkor
People still die in CH.



KT

people still die in the Vatican city, or anywhere else for that matter... people die.. it's actually written so in that bible of yours...

get over it.

[cashflyer]

Originally posted by trekkor
I'm hoping people will stop fooling themselves.
show me one succesful government at anytime in human history and I'll go away.

Oh... government and politics. I thought you wanted to know about MY outlook for the future - as in outlook for MY future.

Nevermind.

And as for human history, your answer is that NOTHING withstands time. Time erases ALL THINGS.

Sahelanthropus tchadensis - gone
Orrorin tugenensis - gone
Ardipithecus ramidus - gone
Australopithecus anamensis - gone
Australopithecus afarensis - gone
Kenyanthropus platyops - gone
Australopithecus africanus - gone
Australopithecus garhi - gone
Australopithecus aethiopicus - gone
Australopithecus robustus - gone
Australopithecus boisei - gone
Homo habilis - gone
Homo georgicus - gone
Homo erectus - gone
Homo ergaster - gone
Homo antecessor - gone
Homo heidelbergensis - gone
Homo neanderthalensis - gone
Homo floresiensis - gone
Homo sapiens sapiens - just waiting our turn

All things end.

[svandamme]

crap , now you've done it
he's gonna bring out his creationist arguements now...

[svandamme]

i think it's time for a joke :

A train hits a busload of Catholic schoolgirls and they all perish.
They are all in heaven trying to enter the pearly gates, and St. Peter asks the first girl, "Tiffany, have you ever had any contact with a male organ?"
She giggles and shyly replies, "Well, I once touched the head of one with the tip of my finger." St. Peter says, "Ok, dip the tip of your finger in the Holy Water and pass through the gate."
St. Peter asks the next girl the same question, "Jennifer, have you ever had any contact with a male organ?" The girl is a little reluctant but replies,
"Well, once I fondled and stroked one." St Peter says,"OK, dip your whole hand in the Holy Water and pass through the gate."
All of a sudden there is a lot of commotion in the line of girls. One girl is pushing her way to the front of the line.
When she reaches the front of the line St. Peter says, "Lisa! What seems to be the rush?" The girl replies, "If I'm going to have to gargle that Holy Water, I want to do it before Jessica sticks her ass in it."

[fastpat]

Originally posted by trekkor
People still die in CH.
KT

People die because that's what God wants.