I Give It Five Years
 

Within the next 5 years somebody is going to use a Nuke on someone else....

I agree...I can't believe it, but I agree.

So who do you think will be the sender and who will be the recipient?

Israel catches one from Iran.

What model of crystal ball are you using? mine doesn't show any nukes but maybe it's on the fritz.

Once U have a Nuke in your hands, U realize the awesome responsibility you have on your hands. NO country since the US dropped two on Japan has seen fit to use it. Call it deterence, or moral responsibilty.

Once that threshold is broken, all he11 will break lose. If a Nation State uses a Nuclear weapon it will more than likely be retaliated against in kind. Pakistan vs India, China vs India, N Korea against ANYBODY, Iran angainst ANYBODY.

The big problem for the lesser Nuclear powers like N Korea, Pakistan, China, India is the DELIVERY SYSTEM. The US because of its Geographical Postion and the lack of sophisticated means by its potential oponents is mostly out of range. The greatest threat the USA faces is from a small bomb sneaked in and set off by Terrorists.

To expand if a Nation State like Iran gets a Nuclear Bomb will they GIVE it to a Terrorist Organization. Or will a Terrorist Organization get hold of one on its own? Then there would be NO Way of Retaliating. The only recourse is for the USA to retaliate against the Nation State where the materials came from.

I think the most likely scenerio will be one ME country using it on another ME country. Or a Terrorist attack on the US. One further thing about assembling a Bomb, it takes infrastructure a Nation State can provide. If a Terrorist organization does not have that prerequiste it would be tough for them to come up with a bomb. on their own.

To Sammy...If U are willing to strap a bomb to yourself and BLOW YOURSELF UP for the cause, then WHY WOULD U have any qualms about using a Nuclear weapon to help achieve your aims.

in Jan of 2008, GW will claim that the presedential election was illegal due to "terrorist activities" including hacking ballot boxes. He will place the country under martial law announce plans for his third term in office. Part of that is the need to spread "stability" throughout the mideast and southeast asia. Since troops are now insufficient in number, preemptive nuclear strikes are launched in Iran, Lebanon, North Korea, and Indonesia. Illegal aliens are rounded up and conscripted into "clean up crews" to establish beachheads in those countries. Due to high radiation levels and insufficient safety gear, the average lifespan of the crews is about 6 months, leading to an opening of border crossings, concentrating on aprehension rather than blocking entry. This keeps a steady supply of disposable workers.

Unfortunately loans in the US are being called in by China, so GW launches a preemptive strike against China to halt "economic terrorism."

On a positive note France is now scared *****less of the US and sends as much brie as we want.

There are people here that would buy this.

I think so too. Then all hell breaks loose and Iran, Syria and Pakistan cease to exist as we know them now. China reels in NK and the world stabilizes.

The most likely government to use nuclear weapons today is the US government.

The second most likely government to use a nuclear weapon is the Likudists in Israel.

France may cooperate with Germany to give the latter its own nukes; both governments make nuke Israel is they use nukes on anyone else because the two nations are utterly dependent on mideast oil.

Under worse case estimates, Iran won't have a nuclear weapon for about 10 years, and that's if they go all out to build one.

Without Mushareff in Pakistan, Pakistan goes Islamofacist. It has been said that if Osma hadn't done the 911 thing, within 6 months the Jihadies might have overthrown Musareff and had the Bomb in their hands.

because you know your holy Mekka will turn to glass

and that's something so heavy that even the biggest fanatic can't deal with such a concept, since it just might piss off his own god...

let's face it , they go ape**** because of a cartoon, they don't really want to have glow in the dark Mekka, not even Bum Laden is that crazy...

Tabs in his best Nostradamus spirit again. ;)

There will be no more nuking on my watch! Hold on to your hemorrhoids!

Piece and understanding and all that, bla,bla,bla..

I say the bomb itself originates from the former USSR, and is used by some mussies on US.

+ another, unless the Israelis do what they did to Saddams "peaceful power generation program. Pakistan might be the first one to use one too, but that would be after a change in management.

You are out of your mind if you think Mecca being turned into a big punch bowl is a deterrant to these folks.

I thought French ***** was Brie?

I don't see the whole scenerio playing out as described, but Bush will say the suspension of the Presidential elcetion due to a National Security Crisis is ONLY A TEMPORARY MEASURE. I don't think this will come about in 2008 though...and would it be acceptable to Americans if the suspension came directly after a nuclear bomb destryed an American city. So there U have it Bush will set off a Bomb in San Francisco....Liberals and Gays in one swipe of the button.

Where is Rod Serling when we need him?

Any strike on Iran at this point is going to be Conventional weapons...

Or Paddy Chayefsky

I don't think Israel will use a nuke first. If Iran or anybody else uses one on Israel, Israel will pull the handle marked "settle this thing once and for all" and there will be several mushroom clouds in several ME countries. A,erica will also participate. Muslims will finally no longer be welcome in Israel, even as visitors. That is, if Israel still exists. Which it will, I think. Virtually all ME countries will "start over," and genocidal attitudes toward Israel or anybody else will not be tolerated.

Any strike on Iran would be the biggest addition to Bum Laden's arsenal of recrutement propaganda.

might as well have the CIA train them , just like the CIA trained Bum Laden initially... hell , might as well send em the fully assembled Nukes, with a nice manual on how to blow things...

Also don't forget *****e vs Sunni....They will fight each other over who hates America the most...and that folks was Bushes Grand Plan...to get them fighting among themsleves. That is the REAL REASON why the US invaded Iraq.

Yep the American Indians tried recruiting from among the dead to...they called it the Ghost Dance.

GW will be the happiest man alive when he gets to return to his ranch and civilian life.

how old are you tabs?? 5 years old?? cause that's the thinking level you are displaying now...

in case you didn't know , there's a whole lotta muslims around the world
i'm pretty sure that even the most open minded muslim , will get quite unhappy if the US invades Iran as well , does preemtive strikes, and basically causes dead babies to be shown on Al Jahzeera..

oh, btw , there's a bunch of Muslims in the US as well
there's a fair chance there's some in the town you live

so , again, any strike on Iran , is ammunition for Bum Laden
he won't have to recruite amongst the dead, since there's plenty more that don't live in Iran ,or the Middel East for that matter...

I think 5 years is generous. I'd say 3. tops. 8 to 1 it's in the next 18 months.

JP

lol, how did I miss this one? Huzzah Tabdula:D

While I accept the premise that Dubya is "simple" enough to think this, I can only hope we all know that creating a common enemy is the single best way to unite otherwise disparate peoples. It is one of the most reliable management tactics. If your staff is bickering, make them all pissed at you. Works lie a charm, every time.

Riiiiight! Then he should leave now, before he's impeached following the upcoming election.

I seriously doubt Israel would initiate a nuclear conflict. If they get hit by one - even a simple "dirty bomb" you can bet your ass Iran and Syria will both be turned into smouldering radioactive glass patches in very short order thereafter.

How come I feel like we are sitting on the Eve of Destruction.

Because you're used to the US government being able to go where it pleases and wiping out large numbers of foreigners with no repercussions in the homeland.

That day is over.

If you wish to "feel better", then you need to get with the program to reduce US government imperial military adventures to zero.

If Iraq was such an "immediate threat", mabye we shouldn't have dropped the ball on the last uprising.
Carved that bird into 3, and everyone(except the Sunnis of course) is happy with the US.
Iran is westernizing quickly, despite the mullas, and (so I've heard)has a Christian and a Jew in parliment, along with 25,000 resident Jews.

Now see, wasen't that easy?

I guess armegeddon will have to wait :(

which country has a history of dropping nuclear bombs?
Which country feels morally justified with respect to having used a nuclear bomb?

I don't think the answer is "Iran".

Right, that 'ranch' has been the biggest publicity stunt of his Presidency, and that covers alot.............

You simply cannot be that simple...

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1157911908.jpg

Just spit-ballin' here......



The CIA make a dirty Bomb go off in Afghanistan......and "leak" a fake-story that Al-Queda terrorists in Afghanistan were working on a dirty-bomb to be used in the US, however while working on it, said bomb detonates in their own back-yard........many civilian casualties.

.......which leads to many of the Afghan civilians to feel a deep-hatred and resentment towards the Al-Queada they once revered. Afghan civilian-led vigilante groups form , which hunt-down terrorist scum and slaughter them by the bushel. Many other middle-east countries follow the example.......

Terrorism starts to crumble in the middle-east.



SvK