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-   -   Help me out with a little Hybrid math (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/349562-help-me-out-little-hybrid-math.html)

ChrisBennet 05-31-2007 06:49 PM

My buddy gets around 50mpg with his Jetta TDI. I've borrowed it and it's very peppy.
-Chris

onewhippedpuppy 05-31-2007 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by ChrisBennet
My buddy gets around 50mpg with his Jetta TDI. I've borrowed it and it's very peppy.
-Chris

If I only cared about MPG, that is what I would drive.

LeeH 05-31-2007 09:08 PM

The TDI market is a bit crazy right now. After seeing several "want to buy" posts on Craigslist I found a Golf TDI 5 speed at the wholesale auction. I'm sure some of the dealers thought I was over paying... apparently they hadn't scoped out Ebay's historical sales. A couple from Missouri clicked Buy It Now. They drove their other silver Golf TDI out to Phoenix to pick this one up. Now they have THREE!
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=190112005419
I only put about 30 miles on this one, but it was fun to drive.
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1180670866.jpg

BlueSideUp 05-31-2007 09:24 PM

onewhippedpuppy- The numbers I am quoting are from fueleconomy.gov which is a US Department of Energy website. They are changing the fuel economy testing that is used to determine what you see on the window sticker. Prior to 2008 the numbers were derived using a very old method and no use of accessories. This heavily favored the hybrid cars which caused big problems when the owners were not getting the quoted 55 to 60mpg.

The new test uses higher speeds, air conditioning, and colder temperatures. All of these factors cause the ratings on the hybrid cars to drop by at least 10mpg.

In order to provide an even playing ground the Department of Energy went back and revised the fuel economy ratings for cars all the way back to 1985. Of course everyone is going to get different gas mileage depending on use and driving style. Down here in SoCal our weather favors the hybrid cars since the temps don't get much down below 50 degrees or above 100 degrees (by the coast anyway).

mhackney 06-01-2007 06:25 AM

On the hybrid front, check out this from Ask.com http://hybridcars.about.com/od/hybridcarfaq/f/batterycost.htm

Also the links in the article - has info on warranties, etc.

One of my big gripes with the "green movement" (and don't get me wrong, I am very conservation and environment minded) is that the "big picture" is rarely taken in to account. For instance, how much environmental impact is there in the production and ultimate disposal of a hybrid. The dead batteries need to go somewhere and the cost of manufacturing batteries from a pollution standpoint is pretty high.

On NPR last night I heard a report about greenhouse gases and that electric cars would solve the problem. Where does the electricity to charge the car come from? Usually burning of fossil fuels here in NA. I haven't done the calculations to determine if direct burning of fossil fuels for locomotion is more green than the burning of fuels to generate electricity, transfer that electricity and then charge batteries for locomotion. But the gripe is, people do not seem to be thinking about the big picture/entire system and very well could be trading off 1 problem for a potentially bigger/more devastating problem.

By the way, that South Park episode on hybrid "Smug" was one of the funniest, most creative animations ever!

cheers,
Michael

Porsche_monkey 06-01-2007 06:28 AM

Long term the electricity will come from nuclear. Present day, you're just transferring the consumption of fossil fuels to a different location. Possibly a different country.

coldstart 06-01-2007 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by jyl
The Prius' reliability is excellent. I've never heard of a battery needing replacement. You can get the extended warranty for peace of mind. By the time it runs out, hybrid technology will be commplace so independent mechanics will fix them, and a replacement battery will be cheap.

The local journalist (Toronto Star) that had a Prius tester scraped the battery cable (runs the length of the car) on a small dip in the road-- I think it cost him over $2500 to replace the cable.....

jyl 06-01-2007 08:03 AM

This Prius is not perfect, but it is a big step in the right direction, and far better than a 15 mpg pickup or a 20 mpg SUV.

Solar panel prices will be dropping fast in 2008-2010 as polysilicon supply triples and thin film technologies improve. I think in 2 years it will be economically viable to put solar panels on my roof. By that time, I think we'll have several options for plug-in hybrids with 50+ miles battery range plus a gas engine for longer trips, and pure electric vehicles with 100 miles battery range and useful carrying capacity (e.g. 4 occupants).

I look forward to powering our daily commuter car(s) from solar, which would leave us buying maybe 100-200 gallons of gasoline per year - basically just longer trips plus fueling the 911. At that point, I personally won't care if gas goes to $10/gal. (Well, except for the global recession part.)

notfarnow 06-01-2007 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by jyl
Solar panel prices will be dropping fast in 2008-2010 as polysilicon supply triples and thin film technologies improve. I think in 2 years it will be economically viable to put solar panels on my roof.
I was reading about that somewhere the other day. They were basically saying that we are on the verge of a significant "tipping point" for solar technology. There is enough demand NOW to make R&D worthwhile, and this has brought the industry much closer to making cheap, efficient solar films.

The same article also stated that if our roofs were covered with solar shingles, it could only supply ~25% of our household power needs. No magic solutions, I guess. I wonder how much of a charge they could supply for an electric car though? Those electric 914 conversions are pretty slick, although an old Fiat 500 or Citroen 2CV would make a really cool electric conversion.

Porsche_monkey 06-01-2007 08:16 AM

Eventually most of us will have one electric 'short trip' car and a fossil fuel car for long trips. that's my prediction.

I'm thinking about tackling an electric car project. Looking for a tiny lightweight shell.

notfarnow 06-01-2007 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by PBH

I'm thinking about tackling an electric car project. Looking for a tiny lightweight shell.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1180711277.jpg

Older small cars seem ideal. Very lightweight... but probably not the safest. There was a company building "new" electric Renault Dauphines a couple years ago.

jyl 06-01-2007 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by coldstart
The local journalist (Toronto Star) that had a Prius tester scraped the battery cable (runs the length of the car) on a small dip in the road-- I think it cost him over $2500 to replace the cable.....
Must have been a hell of a "small dip".

The high voltage battery cables do not hang exposed under the car. They are contained in a protective metal channel, or tucked up in the chassis.

Yes, you could conceivably damage them by running over a big concrete curb at a good speed, or similar accident. But in that case, you could damage a lot of other things under a car that would cost $2500 or more to fix.

jyl 06-01-2007 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by notfarnow
I was reading about that somewhere the other day. They were basically saying that we are on the verge of a significant "tipping point" for solar technology. There is enough demand NOW to make R&D worthwhile, and this has brought the industry much closer to making cheap, efficient solar films.

The same article also stated that if our roofs were covered with solar shingles, it could only supply ~25% of our household power needs. No magic solutions, I guess. I wonder how much of a charge they could supply for an electric car though? Those electric 914 conversions are pretty slick, although an old Fiat 500 or Citroen 2CV would make a really cool electric conversion.

It is partly a question of R&D but also partly a question of demand/supply of raw materials.

Solar cells are either thin-film type or semiconductor type. Thin film is much lower efficiency, but cheaper, so watt/sqft is poor. Semiconductor is much better efficiency, but expensive, so watt/sqft is good. Watt/$ is roughly equivalent.

But semiconductor-type cells are expensive mostly because there is a global shortage of raw polysilicon. Polysilicon is used in making silicon wafers for semiconductor manufacturing, growth rate was more or less predictable, it was a commodity business, and profit margins were mediocre, so wasn't a lot of new investment in polysilicon manufacturing. Solar cells were a small part of demand.

Then solar cell demand started soaring, driven by energy prices plus government incentives plus consumer/business interest in green solutions, and solar cell demand for polysilicon completely upset the prior stable demand/supply situation. Polysilicon price started soaring. Polysilicon makers were skeptical of the solar demand, plus they enjoyed the soaring prices, so were in no hurry to increase capacity (kind of like oil refineries . . . ). See the stock chart for WFR.

Now new companies are rushing to build polysilicon capacity, and the existing polysilicon makers have decided they better keep up, so global capacity is set to soar, starting around 2009 and maybe in late 2008. Most likely scenario is that polysilicon price comes crashing down.

Lots of new companies have jumped into making solar cells too, the Chinese are especially active here. So most likely scenario is that solar cell price also comes crashing down.

At the same time, efficiency is increasing steadily, for both semiconductor and thin-film type cells.

Thus my anticipation of 2008-2010.

With the current efficiency levels, a residential installation should be with semiconductor-type solar panels. You need the higher watt/sq ft, since the roof area is small relative to the electricity consumption in the house. Depending on the house, you can potentially supply 100% of home electricity consumption, assuming of course the right climate (Arizona better than Seattle) and that you're also conserving electricity (efficient appliances, CFLs, insulation, etc).

But for residential, thin film efficiency is currently too low. Solar roof tile efficiency is even lower. I don't know who would propose using those, right now.

Porsche_monkey 06-01-2007 08:47 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by notfarnow
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1180711277.jpg

Older small cars seem ideal. Very lightweight... but probably not the safest. There was a company building "new" electric Renault Dauphines a couple years ago.

I wasn't planning on getting in an accident. :)

red-beard 06-01-2007 09:18 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by notfarnow
The same article also stated that if our roofs were covered with solar shingles, it could only supply ~25% of our household power needs. No magic solutions, I guess.
If you could supply 25% of your electricity from a Roof panel, it would be a huge benefit. I doubt the year round numbers would be that high. Don't forget, cloud cover and dirty soler cells will affect the opperation.

Noah930 06-01-2007 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by PBH
I wasn't planning on getting in an accident. :)
Except for maybe Volvo and NASCAR drivers, who does? ;)

Porsche_monkey 06-01-2007 10:07 AM

I drive my Volvo, and put my seat belt on for all accidents. It's boxy but it's good.

aigel 06-01-2007 08:39 PM

I would give the hybrid a shot. Looking at your math, it seems as if it is indeed cheaper to run than your average small car, especially if you are in a lot of stop and go traffic. Also, your calculation is based upon 3.5 dollar / gallon gas. I would be surprised if it stays there over the life of the car, say 6 years. And with higher future gas prices, resale will still be decent, even with the car out of warranty. I have ridden in the Prius and was impressed how comfortable the car is. Not my cup of tea in the styling department but if you could stand a Saturn, you should be all set. ;)

Cheers, George

Edit: And for the trips with the big table? Get a small utility trailer! Even a hybrid can tow that!

jyl 06-01-2007 09:50 PM

Here is an example of a residential solar system that offsets 100% of home electricity use, with a fairly modest number of panels. You don't have to cover your property with panels.

http://www.homepower.com/files/featured/CreatingABrighterFuture.pdf

Now, this particular system makes no sense economically, since the family was already frugal with electricity. Back of envelope, their system has a 40 year payback.

But in 2 to 3 years, when the costs have dropped by half, while solar cell efficiencies has increased, and electric rates have risen (looks like we're getting a 16% increase for residential electric in PDX this year, 3% scheduled and 13% unexpected thanks to BPA), the economics will make sense.

Tobra 06-02-2007 03:56 PM

I would have two concerns with a hybrid vehicle.

1. What happens with the VERY expensive battery pack when it wears out.

2. What happens with the battery pack when you get in a wreck?

I would not buy a hybrid vehicle until there are good answers to these questions. If you do all stop and go, they are not bad, on the open road no better than conventional tech.


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