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-   -   The Twlight of Civilization. (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/350039-twlight-civilization.html)

Joeaksa 06-03-2007 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by red-beard
Why do you say that? Hiroshima and Nagasaki are not nuclear wastelands.
The devices that most assume would be used are much more powerful and of a different type than the ones used in Japan in WW2.

Am not a nuke expert but bet that these would render the area uninhabitable for a lot longer.

Porsche-O-Phile 06-04-2007 01:08 AM

Probably true.

A scenario that gives me pause is one where a radiological device of some sort gets sent from Asia over here to one of our Pacific ports. I happen to live about 10 minutes from one of them, so this is a less-than-savory prospect.

Such a bomb wouldn't even have to make it past port security (which I hear isn't all that tough anyway), even if it were detonated a half mile offshore still on-board a freighter it'd still wipe out half of Long Beach and destroy the port/refineries/etc.

livi 06-04-2007 01:11 AM

Glad I live in Sweden as neither the terrorists nor Americans know where that is. :D

Joeaksa 06-04-2007 03:18 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Porsche-O-Phile
Probably true.

A scenario that gives me pause is one where a radiological device of some sort gets sent from Asia over here to one of our Pacific ports. I happen to live about 10 minutes from one of them, so this is a less-than-savory prospect.

Such a bomb wouldn't even have to make it past port security (which I hear isn't all that tough anyway), even if it were detonated a half mile offshore still on-board a freighter it'd still wipe out half of Long Beach and destroy the port/refineries/etc.

If they are even semi-smart they will study the wind patterns and detonate one West of the area they are going after. The wind will carry all the fallout everywhere East and do a much better job for them.

Problem with your scenario (and its a correct one) is that most of the cargo is not screened for radiation and explosives until it gets into port, so if they anchor off shore and then detonate things it would be a surprise to everyone. Same thing with NYC or DC, do a device just West of town and let the prevailing winds carry the fallout everywhere.

They are not stupid and have thought of this long ago...

tabs 06-04-2007 03:36 AM

Let me see now prevailing westerly winds...got that, any other advice you'd like to give.

Joeaksa 06-04-2007 03:43 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by tabs
Let me see now prevailing westerly winds...got that, any other advice you'd like to give.
Yep, hide the device in a magic carpet!

Its an inside joke folks...

Hoots 06-04-2007 05:03 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by tabs
Let me see now prevailing westerly winds...got that, any other advice you'd like to give.
Do a search on the difference between air burst and surface burst, or just go to this PBS link .

red-beard 06-04-2007 05:17 AM

The problem with those bombs is they assume a hydrogen fusion bomb of at least 1 megaton.

The bombs that the terrorists would be able to get would be kiloton size, probably 10-25 kiloton, fission only.

Joeaksa 06-04-2007 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by red-beard
The problem with those bombs is they assume a hydrogen fusion bomb of at least 1 megaton.

The bombs that the terrorists would be able to get would be kiloton size, probably 10-25 kiloton, fission only.

Or even a "dirty bomb" which would do enough damage. Thats a good reason to stop these religious fanatics BEFORE they get anywhere near America!

74-911 06-04-2007 06:27 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by red-beard
Why do you say that? Hiroshima and Nagasaki are not nuclear wastelands.
Sorry, didn't mean the physical aspects of a blast. Just that the results and pictures of the blast aftermath would forever be burned into our collective consciousness.

Just seems with Osama's fatwah to kill 10M of us, they will go for something very spectacular and gruesome. Blowing up water sources just wouldn't produce the desired result. Although I don't doubt some splinter group (such as the JFK airport group) could be planning to take out a water supply or ? somewhere.

azasadny 06-04-2007 06:40 AM

The End of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) is predicted almost every day and I still remember all of the doomsayers predicting TEOTWAWKI for Y2K and that didn't happen either...

Zeke 06-04-2007 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by tabs
Let me see now prevailing westerly winds...got that, any other advice you'd like to give.
Yeah, you wonder sometimes. Not that terrorists' minds aren't clever enough, we'll just hand them a f***ing blueprint.

JavaBrewer 06-04-2007 07:55 AM

Re: The Twlight of Civilization.
 
Quote:

Originally posted by tabs
The outstanding fear is that it will be a big event taking many tens of thousands of lives and effecting hundreds of thousands of people, perhaps simultaneousily in 2 major cities in the world (LA and Toyko were mentioned)
If such an event were to pass you can bet they won't leave out the #1 symbolic prize...Vegas baby.

1967 R50/2 06-04-2007 07:57 AM

So....we are worried that Al Queda might...maybe...perhaps...someday have the ability...to try...and blow up a US city.

I say "So What!" For 40 years every US city was under the threat of instant annhilation by Soviet ICBMs. In fact we still are. Nothing has changed at all so why get excited?

I've got more important things to worry about.

MRM 06-04-2007 08:05 AM

Hasn't anyone here ever read the novel "Wildfire" by Nelson DeMille? It was a bestseller. A good read, but I like "Word of Honor" better. The plot was based on the same premise as Tab's threadstarter.

Anyway, next time you worry about civilization ending because of a terrorist attack, go to the tallest office building in your city. Look around at all the buildings that would have to be destroyed to make a dent in the city. Then look at a map and count the number of cities - all of which have similar tall buildings, vast residential areas surrounding the downtowns, suburbs beyond that, farms beyond that, and then finally the almost infinite North American wilderness and wastelands that a more populous and less wealthy country would be using but which we let lie fallow simply because we don't need it right now.

Then consider how much terrorists would have to destroy to really affect our civilization. September 11th was a horrible tragedy with great loss of life and property damage. It did not make a substantive dent on our economy or civilization. It made even less of an impact on world civilization.

Our reaction to that attack did change our country, but the physical damage from the terrorism did not change our civilization, despite the damage it did to 3,000 lives and the families they left behind.

Joeaksa 06-04-2007 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by milt
Yeah, you wonder sometimes. Not that terrorists' minds aren't clever enough, we'll just hand them a f***ing blueprint.
We had an Iranian guy working at the Palo Verde nuke plant just West of Phoenix. He was there for over 20 years I believe and recently retired. This was 2 months ago or so.

He moved back to Iran and for some silly reason logged onto his secure server back at the nuke plant and downloaded several things, training tools and so on. Turns out now that he also took a company issued laptop with him, which he "forgot in the closet in his Mothers house in Tehran".... yea right.

He then returned to America. Why? Because his wife was having a baby and wanted to have it in America. Guess the Iranian hospitals and passport are not good enough for him but he is more than happy to bend over and screw this country by giving nuke information to Iran!

We just handed them an experienced nuke engineer, the training program and other information. Bet that they have someone who can make a bomb as well, either from America or Pakistan...

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0523alavi-ON.html

KFC911 06-04-2007 08:23 AM

Re: Re: The Twlight of Civilization.
 
Quote:

Originally posted by dmoolenaar
If such an event were to pass you can bet they won't leave out the #1 symbolic prize...Vegas baby.
We'd never hear about it if they did: "what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas" :)

The Gaijin 06-04-2007 08:28 AM

Re: The Twlight of Civilization.
 
Quote:

Originally posted by tabs
So U might say we are in the twlight of civilizaton and are on the verge of something far more ominous.
Cousin Daisy said the same thing to Nick Carraway in 1922. All her friend's were sure of it.

74-911 06-04-2007 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by 1967 R50/2
I say "So What!" For 40 years every US city was under the threat of instant annhilation by Soviet ICBMs. In fact we still are. Nothing has changed at all so why get excited?

I've got more important things to worry about.

I don't worry about it, just cognizant of the potential that it can happen.

I grew up 10 miles from Dyess AFB in the 50's and 60's. A SAC base stuffed with B-47's to B-52's and now B-1's and then ringed by a number of Atlas ICBM silos. If the fireworks with the Soviets started, Dyess and the silos would be one of the first places taken out and were presumably targeted multiple times. Spent more than a few air raid drills crouched under our desks at school like that would really help. I think everyone knew we were instantly dead if it happened but no one sat around and worried about it (except during the Cuban missile crisis when I guess every B-52 on base took off one right after the other. That got everyones attention big time).... :D

MRM 06-04-2007 10:09 AM

Wow. That must have been a sight to remember. From what I understand, the world came close to nuclear war two times when the Russians seriously considered launching a pre-emptive strike. One was during the Korean War, when the decision not to launch was actually a much closer thing than we ever suspected until we got access to old Soviet records.

But the world has never been closer to nuclear war than the Cuban Missile Crisis. Both sides were ready to launch and both thought long and hard about firing first.

The most dangerous part of it was that Kruschev was backed into a corner and couldn't back down without losing his position. The only way for him to have stayed in power was to launch. Fortunatly for mankind he made the right decision and blinked first, making the correct calculation that ruling the Soviet Union wasn't worth much if it was a pile of smoking rubble. The humiliation did indeed force him from power leading to Breshnev and his ilk. Never make it hard for your enemy to save face and retreat with honor when you have defeated him without fighting.

I can just imagine a couple of hundred B-52s circling for hours, wondering if they were going to have a home to return to. My unlce would have been in one, but he's never talked about it.


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