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Dog-faced pony soldier
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Heh, heh, heh. . .
And this party's just getting started. I'm sticking to my prediction of 50% drop in many Southern CA markets. Remember, you heard it here first. 
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A car, a 911, a motorbike and a few surfboards Black Cars Matter |
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10-24-2007, 04:31 AM
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Unconstitutional Patriot
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: volunteer state
Posts: 5,620
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Quote:
 I like checking http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/ occasionally. Its focus is Southern California. A few days ago, the blogger reported about a large home in San Diego proper. It was purchased for $1.5 million with zero down. Monthly carrying costs were $10k+. It was being rented for $5000/mth. The owner is now trying to short sell for $1.1M. Remember, this has a San Diego address. It isn't 55 miles outside of town. That is a solid 25% drop in value. I'd go crazy if I had to swallow that kind of loss. Of course I'd have to be crazy to buy a property that rents for half of carrying cost. Ummm, does anyone smell recession? |
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10-24-2007, 05:14 AM
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 4,247
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the ones that burned to the ground should have dropped in price a little too....
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10-24-2007, 05:15 AM
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Bulls make money, bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.
Anyone who thought the California market was going to continue to be a money making machine was blind. Everything that goes up must come down. The insanity of the California real estate market has been plainly obvious for years to those of us who don't live there. Sorry boys, the party's over.
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Rick 1984 911 coupe |
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10-24-2007, 06:07 AM
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for those of us who are trying to *live* here, there is no party. I have zero sympathy for the flippers and real estate "agents." As for the rest of us...well, I'm renting and will continue to until either there is a massive correction (which I still do not thing will happen in areas with short commute times) or I win the lotto.
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10-24-2007, 06:43 AM
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Join Date: Apr 2002
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10-24-2007, 06:53 AM
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Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Lacey, WA. USA
Posts: 25,310
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The flippers are on their own. The folks who bought eight years ago at $400K and were hoping for $1.5M profit will need to settle for $600K profit. The flippers who chose to live by the sword will die by it. Or hold.
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Man of Carbon Fiber (stronger than steel) Mocha 1978 911SC. "Coco" |
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10-24-2007, 07:03 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Colorado, USA
Posts: 8,279
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Quote:
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/ |
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10-24-2007, 07:09 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Colorado, USA
Posts: 8,279
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Some current ones on the front page. Including one that will be more than a half a million dollar loss in 15 months:
Asking Price: $3,199,000 Purchase Price: $3,680,000 Purchase Date: 7/28/2006 Address: 32 Prairie Grass, Irvine, CA 92603 Asking Price: $968,000 Purchase Price: $1,025,000 Purchase Date: 10/6/2005 etc. |
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10-24-2007, 07:13 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,125
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Housing is normal in PA. There is normal appreciation, and hardly a dip in sales.
The problem areas in the country are where housing is overpriced--California and Florida are examples. What you are seeing is a correction to an overpriced situation, created by unusually low interest rates a few years ago. In Florida, the condo market just overheated. Selling a condo in Florida is difficult right now. You may ask how do I know...
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'03 Boxster ***** '82 911SC **** '98 BMW Z3 ** '87 300Z *** '80 BMW 320i **** |
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10-24-2007, 07:14 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Mid-life crisis, could be anywhere
Posts: 10,382
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You guys have a lot of animosity towards "flippers". How can you blame people for seizing an opportunity and honestly attempting to capitalize on it? I believe that most of you would do the same if the situation presented itself, and if you had the means. I have a friend in OC who is a flipper. Yeah, he's still flippin'. Times must be tough for him... he's selling his new F430 and ordering a 430 Scuderia. Hmmm, that's about $400K. Must be doing all right
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'95 993 C4 Cabriolet Bunch of motorcycles |
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10-24-2007, 07:15 AM
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Dept store Quartermaster
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: I'm right here Tati
Posts: 19,858
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My neighbor here is selling the place he bought 6 years ago for less than he paid. I think he got it for 260k and he's currently got it on the market for 239k. He added a three stall out building with workshop 2 years ago...
This is Michigan, we didn't get the boom...just the bust. "Don't cry for me, I'm already dead." Details: Private 5 Bedrooms 3+ Bath Ranch Home Nestled In 2 Wooded Acres. Stunning 3749 total living sq. ft. Galley kitchen with custom cabinetry and appliances remaining for a turnkey value. Formal dining area and cozy 3 season room.Living room with bay windowand fireplace. Additional formal living room with second bay window on main floor both separated by beautiful Frenchdoors creating the ideal home for entertaining and family gatherings. Large master bedroom with private access to full bath with a Greco Roman flair. Full walkout basement including easy access to backyard. Family room with cozy wood burning fireplaceand built-in book casing.Laundry room with convenient entrance from backyard and large utility room for needed storage. Additional amenities include; updated roof(02'), central air, hot tub, private office, in-law apt, 35'x26' out building, spacious asphalt driveway ideal for boat/RV parking, creek, and more!
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Cornpoppin' Pony Soldier Last edited by lendaddy; 10-24-2007 at 07:22 AM.. |
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10-24-2007, 07:18 AM
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Location: Colorado, USA
Posts: 8,279
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I think many have some animosity towards flippers because of the belief that they contribute to artificial, speculative bubbles. Therefore, if you are not a homeowner and are looking to buy, the flippers and speculative bubbles, esp. in the more bubbly areas, create a good deal of uncertainly and added risk for a homebuyer.
When you add in 20-30% of speculative buyers to a market, it drives the prices up, and in housing, that cycle historically has lasted around 7 years, getting hotter and hotter in the last 2 years. But any rise in assets driven by speculative activity is going to end. In many ways, it's like a Ponzi scheme, it relies on "new speculative money" to keep growing. That cannot continue forever. In the bubble areas, 30-50% of the price of a house is not "real," it is the "speculative" component of the price. When the speculators withdraw from the market, that part of the price also gets withdrawn out. It just takes a few years. Anyways, that's why some have animosity towards flippers/speculators. Different people are in different stages of life, and if you are one just starting out, buying a first house, etc. in a bubbly area in, say, 2004, 2005 or 2006, flippers have contributed greatly to making your life more difficult and your homebuying more risky. |
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10-24-2007, 07:31 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: So. Cal.
Posts: 11,249
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Housing in So. Cal. went up 20% per year for years. These were unreasonable gains. Those who bought to hold/own should be ok.
The problems, IMO, are confined to those who bought houses they couldn't afford and/or with loans they couldn't service. My example: Pd. 320k in '98. In '06 surrounding homes were selling for the low 800K's. Even if the prices fall 50% from their peak (which I think is overly pessimistic), the house is still worth 25% more than I paid for it. And I do not think that my case is that far out of the norm. If you bought in '06, and paid 800, and could afford the house/loan, and prices fall, you'll be stuck there for a few years. But then, that's what 90-93 was like around here. However, if you were stupid enough to borrow out all of your equity, or for whatever reason entered into creative financing that you can no longer afford, then you are gonna have some trouble. But isn't that always the case with financial transactions? The only buyers in this recent run-up in values should have been those who could afford traditional financing. I know plenty who bought modest homes in the I.E. who did not get to experience the huge value increases, but who are also going to make it through this downturn because they were neither greedy nor stupid. My $.02.
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David 1972 911T/S MFI Survivor |
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10-24-2007, 07:41 AM
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'the' summed it up pretty well. Buying a house never used to be a common speculative activity, but that changed in the last few years (perhaps related to the prior Dot-bomb frenzy ?). I can't 'blame' a flipper, successful or not, for trying to game the system, but I consider their existence parasitic. They contribute nothing of value, and seek only to take. This attitude has sadly become dominant in American culture, with all emphasis on getting 'rich' at any cost. Material wealth is only one measure of success. I have known some very wealthy people, (Ferraris and all, Motion), who I would have to consider tremendous failures in life.
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Now Porsche-less ex-'74 Carrera, '93 RS America, '89 Cab, '88 Coupe “Thank god there’s no 48-hour race anywhere in the world, because chances are nobody could beat Porsche in a 48 hour race.” Carroll Shelby, 1972. Last edited by grudk; 10-24-2007 at 07:52 AM.. |
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10-24-2007, 07:48 AM
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Detached Member
Join Date: May 2003
Location: southern California
Posts: 26,964
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Doesn't much matter to me. Bought mine for $360K ten years ago. Was up to about a million, now about 850-900K . Since I'm not going anywhere, I hope, it doesn't matter.
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Hugh |
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10-24-2007, 07:49 AM
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Cars & Coffee Killer
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: State of Failure
Posts: 32,246
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Some Porsches long ago...then a wankle... 5 liters of VVT fury now -Chris "There is freedom in risk, just as there is oppression in security." |
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10-24-2007, 07:51 AM
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I don't have any real animosity towards flippers other than they help to create a situation where I cannot afford to buy a house even with a 6 figure salary (the summed it up nicely). For me it is more a case that I have zero sympathy for those that are getting stuck now. I guess I've never placed that much emphasis on wealth but have instead preferred to actually try and contribute something to meaningful to society. I fail to see how flipping houses does that...
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10-24-2007, 08:03 AM
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Registered
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Mid-life crisis, could be anywhere
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I think the damage wrought by flippers is really restricted to certain areas, namely Phoenix and Las Vegas. Pricey areas like California aren't attractive to the average, greedy flipper just because the prices are so high to begin with. I think you can blame most of the problems we're experiencing currently on easy money. There are many, many more people out there with the "wrong" loan than people sitting on a vacant house or condo.
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'95 993 C4 Cabriolet Bunch of motorcycles |
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10-24-2007, 08:12 AM
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 4,247
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Quote:
Last edited by on-ramp; 10-24-2007 at 08:31 AM.. |
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10-24-2007, 08:24 AM
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1979 Porsche 911SC 3.0
