House in Thousand Oaks, CA: What would you offer?

Vipergrün · 12-31-2007, 12:36 PM

For everyone outside of CA, this will seem crazy, but I am looking for a serious response

Looking at a house in Thousand Oaks, which has been on the market for 160 days and has been dropped from 795K to 699K. The house meets almost all of our criteria.

I am thinking an offer of 650K would be fair, or should I go lower? Zillow.com says 655K.

How much lower do ya'll think prices will go?

Thanks, and Happy New Year!

-Brad

nostatic · nostatic's Garage

the market has really slowed down here. I think there is more dropping to be had, but it really depends on what you want/need. If you are planning to stay in the house for 5 or more years, I think $650K would be fine. If you want/need to flip, you could be upside down in a year or so.

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

Wait two years. They'll be begging to sell the same or similar houses in the same area for $400k. Or less.

Hugh R · 12-31-2007, 01:08 PM

I seriously don't think $400K in two years in TO. If houses drop by 50% in TO, you'll see a lot of changes in the rest of SoCal for sure. TO is an expensive, very nice area.

nostatic · nostatic's Garage

TO also has a bit of a micro economy due to Amgen. Don't think it will drop that much either unless Amgen starts doing massive layoffs.

dd74 · 12-31-2007, 01:16 PM

Brad - I knew you'd come back.

Offer $625K and no lower. You don't want to insult a seller who's probably already smarting from a drop in perceived value. Also, there are people out there buying right now, so I'd hurry with the offer if I were you.

As to "perceived value," when I say that, it's because house prices in SoCal will always rise. This is the place everyone wants to be at some time in their lives.

Good luck!

Vipergrün · 12-31-2007, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dd74

Brad - I knew you'd come back.

Yeah, it's funny how things work. We actually tried last April-June to move back, but could not sell our house in CO. Good thing as prices in CA have gone down a lot since then. Our house in CO is holding fairly steady.

I cannot wait to hang at WSIR with you SoCal guys again

dad911 · 12-31-2007, 02:09 PM

Knowledge is key to buying right. Need more info. Is the house empty? How much do they owe on it? 400k of debt and empty, and they may take 600k. If they owe 800k and are living there, they may not be able or willing to bring money to he closing.

legion · 12-31-2007, 02:13 PM

How long are you planning on staying? It might be smarter to rent in the short-term and buy later.

You could always offer to rent as a stop-loss for the current owners...

Dottore · 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nostatic

TO also has a bit of a micro economy due to Amgen. Don't think it will drop that much either unless Amgen starts doing massive layoffs.

It has. Some time ago. And they're likely to continue.

Hugh R · 12-31-2007, 03:23 PM

I read in the LA Times recently that AMGEN is indeed doing layoffs, so of its patents are turning generic and they don't have a lot in the pipeline. AVERAGE salary at AMGEN is like $150K/year, AVERAGE.

motion · 12-31-2007, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts

I'm with Jeff on this one. The best plan for anyone moving back is to rent for at least two years. Other than the actual act of moving, there's really no risk in that plan.

-Wayne

+1

You would have to be nuts to buy here right now. We are not at the bottom of the curve yet. Rent for awhile and buy at the bottom. It won't be that hard to tell when we have a bottoming-out here.

Vipergrün · 12-31-2007, 03:38 PM

Thanks for the replies all! Looks like renting will be the hot tip. We are already in a pretty good financial position to buy, so it should only get better!

Happy New Year!

motion · 12-31-2007, 03:55 PM

Good plan... just keep an eye on the credit market. If things get too tight, you might be squeezed out of good financing.

sammyg2 · 12-31-2007, 04:26 PM

It's close to bottom in that price range and area. I'd offer $630k and wait for counter.

motion · 12-31-2007, 04:33 PM

Sammy, between your stock picks and real estate calls..... I'm gonna have to put you on my Christmas card list

dd74 · 12-31-2007, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sammyg2

It's close to bottom in that price range and area. I'd offer $630k and wait for counter.

+1. TO is a prime area. Now if we were talking about less appreciated areas outside of L.A., like Lancaster/Palmdale, I would take Wayne and Motion's advice. Prices won't go down too much further (farther?) in the better areas.

Porsche-O-Phile · Porsche-O-Phile's Garage

That's what they said in 1990 too.

BeyGon · 12-31-2007, 05:40 PM

So offer 625, the worst is they will counter. Renting to me is a looser, no tax break at all, if you are making enough to think of this, you need the tax break.
But then I am thinking of myself and wife with no kids.

Hugh R · 12-31-2007, 05:53 PM

See if the realtor can find out what they owe on their 1st, 2nd and maybe 3rd. Start there. Are they making any money at $6XX or losing.